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Three Major Signs Indicate Bitcoin (BTC) Is Bottoming Out
The selling pressure on Bitcoin may be weakening, thanks to stabilizing momentum, miners beginning to capitulate, and liquidity conditions shifting to support. Based on a comprehensive analysis of multiple technical and on-chain indicators, Bitcoin may be forming a local bottom, after its price retraced over 35% from the all-time high of approximately $126,200 set two months ago.
Key points: Momentum, miner capitulation, and liquidity indicators all point to diminishing selling pressure.
Macro liquidity data suggests BTC could start to recover within the next four to six weeks. Bitcoin’s selling pressure is nearing exhaustion. As of December, the weekly stochastic relative strength index (Stochastic RSI) has begun to rise from oversold levels. Trader Jesse pointed out that this pattern has historically appeared near key turning points, often followed by a rebound. Similar bullish crossover patterns occurred in early 2019 (after BTC bottomed near $3,200), March 2020 (around $3,800 during the COVID crisis low), and late 2022 (around $15,500 cycle low). In each case, technical momentum shifted first, with prices lagging behind.
Additionally, Bitcoin’s three-day chart is forming a bullish divergence, with prices making lower lows but momentum indicators not following suit. This pattern has also appeared before mid-2021 correction lows and prior to the bottom triggered by the 2022 FTX crisis, both of which foreshadowed market rebounds in the subsequent months. These signals collectively suggest that Bitcoin’s selling pressure may be exhausted in the near term, a condition more typical of market bottoms rather than short-term technical rebounds.
Bitcoin Miner Capitulation Indicates BTC Has Bottomed
VanEck analysts Matt Sigel and Patrick Bush stated that within a month ending December 15, Bitcoin’s hash rate declined by 4%, which they see as a "bullish contrarian signal" closely related to miner capitulation. These analysts pointed out that historical data shows that prolonged hash rate compression often precedes strong subsequent performance for Bitcoin. Since 2014, after a 30-day hash rate decline, BTC experienced positive 90-day returns 65% of the time. This signal is even more robust over longer periods, with 77% of 180-day returns being positive and an average gain of 72%. Rising prices could also improve miner profitability and incentivize previously idle mining capacity to come back online. Bitcoin could see a rebound within 4-6 weeks, as a macro indicator suggests BTC is approaching a bottom because liquidity conditions are beginning to improve, historically a precursor to major reversals.
Analyst Miad Kasravi’s backtest of 105 indicators shows that the peak of the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) typically leads Bitcoin rebounds by 4 to 6 weeks. This signal appeared at the end of 2022 and mid-2024, both before sharp Bitcoin rallies. Historically, every 0.10 point decline in NFCI has been associated with approximately 15%-20% increases in Bitcoin price, with lower NFCI readings indicating a long-term bullish phase for BTC. As of December, the NFCI stood at -0.52 and continued to trend downward.
A potential catalyst is the Federal Reserve’s plan to convert mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bonds, Kasravi noted. This move is similar to the liquidity injection during the 2019 "non-QE" period, which triggered a 40% rally in Bitcoin.
Despite these positive signals, many market analysts expect Bitcoin’s price could still decline further, with price targets in the $70,000 range.
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Technical review of asset trends under liquidity tightening: US Dollar Index, gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum analysis
Market Background: Government Shutdown Impact on Liquidity Patterns
The US government shutdown has triggered a chain reaction, forcing the Treasury Department to withdraw大量 funds from the market to sustain daily operations, resulting in the TGA account absorbing over $700 billion in cash over the past three months. This move has produced effects similar to rate hikes, causing the total excess liquidity in the market to fall to its lowest point since the end of 2020. On Tuesday (November 4), the VIX fear index surged over 10%, and the entire Crypto market responded with a decline, reflecting a clear shift in investor sentiment.It is worth noting that if the government shutdown ends around the second week of November, the Treasury will re-release hundreds of billions of dollars in liquidity, and market risk appetite is expected to gradually recover.US Dollar Index: The Battle at the Hundred-Point LevelThe US Dollar Index has risen consecutively over the past five trading days, regaining the 100 integer level. However, strong resistance has formed around 100.5, and the market should be cautious about the possibility of a short-term rebound lacking sufficient momentum.The period around November 5 becomes a critical technical window for the US Dollar Index. If the index successfully breaks through the 100 level, it may challenge the 100.3 and even 101.30 levels. Conversely, failure to hold above 100 could risk a return to the medium-term downtrend.
Key Levels for the US Dollar Index•Support: 100.0, 99.2, 97.7•Resistance: 100.5, 101.5, 103.0Gold: Rebound Foundation Gradually StabilizingGold rose 0.99% on Wednesday (November 5), reaching a high of $3,978.6. In the short term, the $3900 to $3930 zone provides solid support, and the price has not broken below the Gann 2/1 angle line, indicating a brewing short-term rebound opportunity.If gold successfully holds above the 4000 level, it may continue to rebound toward 4050 and even 4100 USD. However, to fundamentally reverse the recent downtrend, a clear break above $4110 is necessary.
Key Levels on the Gold Daily Chart•Support: 3930, 3900, 3760•Resistance: 4000, 4110, 4200Ethereum: Signs of Increasing Weakness Already EvidentEthereum dropped 8.79% on Tuesday, with a low of $3,055, approaching the psychological $3000 level. More importantly, ETH has broken below the lower boundary of the downtrend channel, with technical patterns indicating an accelerated downtrend has formed, and the short-term decline has not yet bottomed out.Currently, ETH is trading at around $2.95K, very close to the $3000 support. If resistance at $3700 hampers a rebound, the price may further test support near $3000 and even $2700. The only way to reverse the downtrend is to break through the resistance at $3900.Key Levels on the ETH Daily Chart•Support: 3050, 3000, 2700•Resistance: 3700, 3900, 4000Bitcoin: The 100,000 Level Faces Ongoing Tests
Bitcoin fell 4.77% on Tuesday, with a low of $98,898, briefly breaking below the 100,000 level. Although it quickly rebounded above 100,000, persistent bearish signals suggest a new downtrend is forming, and the 100,000 level may ultimately struggle to hold.The current Bitcoin price is around 87.57K, showing a significant retracement from previous analysis. If resistance at $104,500 hampers a rebound, the market may further probe support near the 100,000 level and $90,000. To fundamentally change the bearish trend, it must regain above $104,500 in the short term.Key Levels on the Bitcoin Daily Chart•Support: 100,000, 90,000, 80,000•Resistance: 104,500, 110,000, 114,000Overall, in a liquidity-tight environment, all assets face important technical hurdles. The progress in resolving the government shutdown will be a key variable influencing the overall market direction.
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2025 Investment Markets Year-End Report: Commodities Were the King!
December 20, 2025 – 2025 went down in history as a year of triumph for global investment markets, heavily dominated by commodities. Thanks to geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, an industrial demand boom (especially green energy and AI data centers), and supply squeezes, precious and industrial metals hit record highs. In contrast, equity markets saw modest gains, while the cryptocurrency class generally disappointed. Approximate performances from the beginning of the year (YTD) are as follows:
Silver: +128% to +130%
The clear star of the year! Reached record levels with supply shortages and enormous demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, and data centers.
Gold: +65%
Showed a strong rise with safe-haven demand and heavy central bank purchases, breaking its own records.
Copper: +34%
As the leader of industrial metals, it benefited from green transformation and infrastructure demand. Nasdaq: +18-22% (approximately 20%)
Positive, led by technology stocks, but lagged behind commodities.
S&P 500: +15-16%
Broad market index posted steady gains.
Russell 2000 (small-cap stocks): +11-13%
Lagged behind large-cap stocks, but gained momentum towards the end of the year.
On the crypto side, the picture is more mixed and generally weak:
Bitcoin: Slightly positive or neutral
Although it saw jumps of over 100% during the year, it lost momentum towards the end of the year.
Ethereum: Slightly negative (approximately -10%)
Affected by shrinking risk appetite despite network improvements.
Altcoins (general): Mostly negative, many coins experienced 20-50%+ drops.
The weakest within the crypto class; regulatory uncertainties and volatility prevailed. In 2025, commodities were by far the best-performing asset class. Geopolitical risks and structural demand growth fueled this rally. Equities remained positive thanks to technology and growth stocks, but failed to make a major leap. Cryptocurrencies, however, stood out as the weakest class – altcoins in particular suffered heavy losses. Experts predict that volatility will continue in 2026, but commodity demand (especially the green energy transition) will remain strong. On the crypto side, there is potential for recovery with maturation and regulatory clarity, but the risks are high. Always do your own research and seek professional advice.

#XRPSentimentAndKeySupport
$XRP Die XRP-Stimmung befindet sich derzeit an einem entscheidenden Punkt, an dem Markemotion, technische Struktur und langfristige Erwartungen zusammenkommen. Die Preisbewegung um wichtige Unterstützungsniveaus ist mehr als ein technisches Signal – sie spiegelt wider, wie verschiedene Marktteilnehmer Risiko, Überzeugung und zukünftiges Potenzial einschätzen.
Im Gegensatz zu einem Großteil des breiteren Kryptomarktes wird die XRP-Stimmung weniger von makroökonomischen Liquiditätstrends beeinflusst und mehr von der Stärke der Narrative, der regulatorischen Klarheit und dem Glauben der Gemeinschaft. In Zeiten der Schwäche verstärken kurzfristige Händler oft die negative Stimmung, indem sie schnell auf wahrgenommene Zusammenbrüche reagieren. Im Gegensatz dazu neigen langfristige Anleger dazu, diese Momente als Prüfungen des Überzeugung zu betrachten, anstatt als definitive Misserfolge.

Bitcoin
From December 5 to 12, 2025, Bitcoin gained approximately 3.5%. Throughout the week, BTC unsuccessfully attempted to break the $95 10000( level. But the balance of power between buyers and sellers was evenly matched this time: four trading sessions of growth and three of decline.

On Wednesday, December 10, a US Federal Reserve meeting took place to decide on interest rates. The head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, )Jerome Powell(, announced a reduction of 25 basis points. As a result, the key rate is now in the range of 3.5–3.75%.

Crypto enthusiasts did not express enthusiasm for the Fed's decision, although it theoretically encourages increased risk appetite. The reason is that Powell did not announce anything extraordinary. The rate cut by 25 basis points fully aligned with consensus forecasts. However, the Fed chairman's speech did little to boost crypto investors' spirits. Powell stated that the economy remains highly uncertain. October and mid-November statistical data have not yet been collected due to the government shutdown that hit American authorities. Additionally, concerns continue regarding President Donald Trump's tariff policies on imports.

It is worth noting: the decision to cut the rate was not unanimous. Out of twelve voting members of the Federal Reserve Board, only nine voted in favor.

The decision did not lead to a surge in Bitcoin, but only nudged the quotes slightly upward. Perhaps the situation will change in May 2026, when Jerome Powell's term as Fed chair ends and a new person takes over.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to alternate between weeks of outflows and inflows. This week, it was the crypto investors' turn to deposit funds. However, the total weekly investment amount of $237.44 million remains modest. This is especially visible when compared to early October, when the seven-day cash inflow twice exceeded $2.7 billion.

Ethereum
The price of Ether increased by 7.81% from December 5 to 12. Only one of the seven trading sessions during the week, Thursday, December 11, was negative for ETH. The second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap managed to stay above 3200.

The main reason for ETH's growth is accumulation by large players )whales(. According to the analytics platform Santiment, over the past three weeks, high-capital investors purchased 934,240 coins. Meanwhile, retail investors sold 1041 ETH. Such behavior usually signals a short-term price increase — at least temporarily.

Spot ETH ETFs recorded inflows of $228.34 million during the week. Only on December 11 did investors prefer to withdraw money from exchange-traded funds. On all other days, investors largely deposited funds. Similar to spot Bitcoin ETFs, Ethereum ETFs have shown mixed dynamics for four consecutive weeks, alternating between inflows and outflows. Uncertainty among investors persists.

The largest American investment firm, BlackRock, filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission )SEC( for an ETH staking ETF. The new product, iShares Ethereum Staking Trust )ETHB(, will allow investors to earn passive income without directly owning ETH. It is worth noting that this is not BlackRock's first attempt to introduce staking into its products. In 2024, the company tried to do so with its spot ETF )ETHA(. However, the then SEC head, Gary Gensler )Gary Gansler(, thwarted the changes. Considering that the new SEC chair, Paul Atkins )Paul Atkins(, is more cautious, BlackRock has tried again to propose an ETH staking ETF. This time, in a different form: not as a spot fund function, but as a separate product.

From a technical analysis perspective, the ETH trend remains downward. This is because the price is below the 50-day moving average )marked in blue(. Nevertheless, the trend is gradually fading, as indicated by the decreasing ADX indicator. The price has also approached the 50-day moving average closely. To switch to a bullish trend, ETH needs to consolidate above the resistance level around $3658.4. The support level on the daily chart is $3098.4.

Solana
Solana's price from December 5 to 12 increased by 3.3%. The volatility of SOL remains relatively low. Last week, the price changed by more than 1.5% only once during the daily trading sessions.

The reasons for Solana's growth are external. The decentralized trading platform )DEX( dYdX announced the launch of spot trading of SOL for US users. This is a revolutionary step for the industry. Until now, decentralized platforms mainly focused on derivatives due to regulatory restrictions. Spot trading of Solana on dYdX will reduce spreads and prevent clients from disclosing private )closed( keys, as is common with centralized exchanges )CEX(.

The Solana blockchain, along with Ethereum, Optimism, and HyperEVM, will serve as the foundation for deploying wrapped XRP )wXRP(. The asset will be launched by Hex Trust. wXRP is a standard XRP 1:1, but on blockchains other than XRPL. The initiative aims to strengthen Ripple's position in the decentralized finance )DeFi( market. Solana, Ethereum, and other blockchains where wXRP is planned to be deployed can attract new users willing to invest in the token.

Spot Solana ETFs demonstrate positive dynamics. Over the past six trading sessions, these ETFs have recorded inflows. However, the results relative to spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs remain modest. On the best day of the week, investors contributed only $16.54 million. Conversely, since the start of trading these financial products on )October 28(, only three out of 32 days registered outflows. This indicates a certain level of investor interest in spot ETFs on Solana.

From a technical analysis perspective, Solana has been in sideways movement for the past month, between the support level of $121.5 and resistance at $146.9. However, if anyone has initiative, it is clearly the sellers )the bears(. This is confirmed by indicators. The price is below the 50-day moving average )marked in blue(, and the VI- line )pink( of the Vortex indicator is above VI+ )purple. The gap between them is very small, also confirming the weakness of the trend.

Conclusion
It is evident that the largest cryptocurrencies appreciated over the past week. The main news of the seven days is the reduction of the US Federal Reserve's key rate. However, this positive news, promising Americans cheaper loans, had little impact on the price dynamics of digital assets. The growth is mostly driven by catalysts specific to each individual cryptocurrency. The price of Ether increased by 7.81% from December 5 to 12. Only one of the seven weekly trading sessions, on December 11, was negative for ETH. The second-largest cryptocurrency managed to stay above $3200.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
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Ethereum's Fusaka Upgrade Drives L2 Cost Shift as DeFi Expands
Original Link: https://www.ethnews.com/ethereums-fusaka-upgrade-drives-l2-cost-shift-as-crypto-com-expands-defi-products/ Ethereum's ecosystem is entering another transition phase as fresh data from research platforms highlights notable shifts in Layer-2 transaction costs following the network's successful Fusaka upgrade.Alongside this change, new partnerships and infrastructure launches are reshaping the DeFi landscape, signaling broader maturation across the sector.Recent updates outline several initiatives now advancing within major exchange ecosystems. New partnerships introduce investment products tracking various tokens, designed to give market participants more accessible exposure to leading exchange platforms.At the same time, development teams are rolling out new onboarding hubs built to streamline Web3 interaction for both users and developers.What the Transaction Cost Chart RevealsData shows how median transaction costs evolved across Ethereum and its major L2 networks -- Arbitrum, Optimism, Starknet, and Linea, between March and December 2025. Ethereum's own fees remain the highest across the period, with visible spikes surrounding network upgrades.Linea tracks slightly above Arbitrum during most months, holding a steady median cost near $0.01. The comparison highlights how L2 ecosystems continue to deliver meaningful fee reductions relative to Ethereum mainnet, even as upgrades influence network-wide pricing dynamics.Fusaka's Impact Across the EcosystemThe successful activation of the Fusaka upgrade marks another refinement to Ethereum's scaling architecture. While data suggests temporary volatility around upgrade windows, overall L2 costs continue to reflect the network's efforts to maintain competitive settlement pricing .
For developers and users, these signals reinforce Ethereum's strategic direction as it aims for lower fees, greater throughput, and smoother onboarding pathways.A Broader Step Toward Integrated DeFi GrowthTaken together, emerging partnerships, new onboarding frameworks, and Ethereum's latest upgrade illustrate a synchronized push toward usability and institutional accessibility.With median L2 costs maintaining a clear advantage over mainnet fees, the sector is better aligned with real-world adoption needs. As these developments converge, the next phase of DeFi growth appears increasingly focused on lowering barriers and widening the pipeline for both new users and traditional investors.