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✅ The New York Fed has already done rate checks, which is the exact step taken before real currency intervention. That means the U.S. is preparing to sell dollars and buy yen.

✅This is rare. And historically, when this happens, global markets surge.

✅Japan is under heavy pressure. The yen has been weak for years, Japanese bond yields are at multi decade highs, and the Bank of Japan is still hawkish. Together, this creates stress not just for Japan, but for global markets. That is why central banks are now taking the situation seriously.

✅Japan has already tried to defend its currency many times on its own. But it failed in 2022 and 2024. Even the July 2024 intervention only worked for short time.

✅History is very clear on this: When Japan acts alone, it does not work. When the U.S. and Japan act together, it does.

✅We saw this in 1998 during the Asian Financial Crisis. Japan’s solo interventions failed, but when the U.S. joined, the yen stabilized. We saw it even more clearly in 1985 with the Plaza Accord, when coordinated action pushed the dollar down nearly 50% over two years.

✅That changed everything: The dollar weakened. Gold, Commodities, Non US markets all pumped.

✅If the Fed intervenes, this is how it'll play out :

📌The Fed creates dollars, sells them, and uses those dollars to buy yen.
📌That weakens the dollar and increases global liquidity.
📌And whenever the dollar is intentionally weakened, asset prices usually surge.

✅Now look at crypto.

✅Bitcoin has one of the strongest inverse relationships with the dollar and one of the strongest positive relationships with the yen. Right now, BTC yen correlation is near record highs.

But there is a catch.

✅There is still hundreds of billions of dollars tied into the yen carry trade. People borrow cheap yen and invest in stocks and crypto. When the yen strengthens suddenly, they are forced to sell those assets to repay loans.

✅We saw this in August 2024: A small BOJ rate hike sent the yen higher. Bitcoin crashed from $64K to $49K in six days. Crypto lost $600B in value.

-🔸So yen strength creates short term risk for crypto.

-🔸But dollar weakness creates long term upside.

✅Now, why is this bullish for crypto ?

Because Bitcoin is still well below its 2025 peak. It is one of the few major assets that has not fully repriced for currency debasement.

✅If coordinated intervention actually happens and the dollar weakens, capital will look for assets that are still cheap relative to the macro shift. Historically, crypto benefits strongly from that environment.

🔥This may become one of the most important macro setups of 2026.
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🔸Canada sends about 75%-76% of all its exports to the U.S. That is over $450 billion per year. A 100% tariff would make most Canadian exports uncompetitive overnight.

🔸His core concern is trade routing. If Canada signs special trade agreements with China, Chinese companies could move goods into Canada first and then send them into the U.S., bypassing American tariffs. Trump calls this using Canada as a drop off port. That would completely break U.S. trade policy against China.

🔸We have already seen what tariffs can do.

🔸In 2018-2019, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on Canadian steel, 10% tariffs on Canadian aluminum. And Canadian steel exports to the U.S. fell by 41% and Aluminum exports fell by 19%.

🔸About $16.6 billion CAD of trade was disrupted. Some Canadian plants cut production and jobs. Supply chains became slower and more expensive

🔸And that happened with just 10%-20% tarrifs. But now Trump is talking about 100% tariffs.

🔸That would hit Autos and auto parts, Energy exports, Aluminum, manufacturing and steel.

🔸Canada’s economy is deeply linked to the U.S. Trade with the U.S. equals roughly two thirds of Canada’s GDP when you include direct and indirect exposure.

🔸At the same time, Canada has been trying to rebuild trade with China.

🔸China is a major buyer of Canadian agriculture like canola and seafood, Canada wants access to Chinese EV and battery supply chains, Canada wants to reduce dependence on a single trading partner.

🔸Economically, that makes sense for Canada. Politically, it puts Canada in the middle of the U.S.-China conflict where Canadian economy will face a major economic shock along with the markets.

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The probability of a US government shutdown by January 31 has exploded to nearly 80%.

Just a day ago, it was only around 10%-15%.

And this is a serious liquidity risk for crypto.

Democrats have made it clear they will block the spending bill unless key DHS funding provisions are removed, and Republicans are not backing down, which means a shutdown is now a real possibility.

And here is the dangerous part:
The debt ceiling has already been raised to $41.1 trillion.

That means politicians can afford to fight longer without instantly breaking government operations, which actually increases the chance of a shutdown.

But if that's the case, why would crypto suffer?

When a shutdown starts, the US Treasury usually rebuilds its Treasury General Account (TGA). To do that, it pulls money out of financial markets.

Last time this happened, the TGA increased by about $220 billion. That was a $220B liquidity drain from markets, and crypto cannot handle that.

Last shutdown cycle:
• Markets pumped for a short time
• Liquidity dried up
• Then crypto collapsed
• BTC and ETH dropped 20%-25%
• Altcoins dropped much more

And one of the biggest factors behind this was the liquidity crisis.

This time, the setup is even worse.

• Liquidity is already thin.
• Market confidence is already weak.
• Institutions are mostly in stocks and gold.
• Volatility is already high

Crypto is already swinging violently on small flows.

A shutdown-driven liquidity drain could be devastating and result in an even more brutal dump.

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