BrightBTC

OTC Weekly Trading Insights (07/03/2025)
AI Summary
Bitcoin's price retraced after hitting near $109,000, indicating upcoming volatility as macro optimism grows.
Overall Market
 
Source: TradingView
The above chart is the BTC price in the 1D candle chart at a log scale.
In our previous report last week, Bitcoin was trading near the upper boundary of a bull flag pattern, as illustrated in the chart above. Our desk anticipated two possible scenarios: either BTC would be rejected at the upper bound or successfully break through to test a new all-time high.
BTC followed the first scenario, testing the upper boundary around $109,000 (with an actual high of $108,870) before facing rejection. Subsequently, the price retraced to the $104,000–$105,000 range (with an actual low of $105,250), where it found support. Following a rally in the US stock market fueled by investor optimism around the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” market sentiment turned more positive, while the US dollar weakened against other major currencies.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that the impact of reciprocal tariffs could be less severe than previously anticipated, citing recent trade agreements between the US and several countries. Additionally, Bessent’s comments on Federal Reserve monetary policy increased the market’s expectations of a potential rate cut in September. The de-escalation of geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas, marked by a ceasefire agreement, further bolstered investor confidence in risk assets.
Overall, market sentiment shifted bullishly toward risk assets, particularly the US stock market. However, the crypto market did not follow suit, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached new all-time highs over the past few trading sessions, while BTC remained range-bound.
Notably, the BTC volatility index recently dropped to a two-year low, indicating that options traders expect BTC to trade within a tight range in the near term. Historical data suggests that such low volatility periods are typically short-lived, signaling that traders should prepare for a significant price move in either direction once BTC breaks out of its current range.
Our desk leans toward an upward breakout scenario, supported by the broader macroeconomic optimism surrounding risk assets. While we expect BTC to reach a new all-time high in the coming weeks, we remain cautious of downside risks. We are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions, as we believe that a more accommodative monetary environment will be essential to sustain the next crypto bull run.
Bitcoin ETF Tracker
The above table is the BTC spot ETF net inflow data in the past five trading sessions.
Over the past five trading sessions, BTC spot ETFs have experienced predominantly strong capital inflows, with the exception of July 1, which saw a capital outflow of $342.25 million. In total, these sessions recorded net inflows exceeding $900 million. During the same period, BTC’s price moved modestly from $107,000 to $109,000.
As previously noted, despite robust capital inflows from ETFs in recent weeks, BTC’s price has remained within a narrow range. Our analysts suggest that this price stability may be due to some long-term large BTC holders offloading assets at these levels, effectively offsetting the buying pressure from traditional finance participants.
Given these dynamics, our desk maintains a cautiously neutral stance on BTC’s near-term price outlook. We continue to monitor developments on the ETF front closely, as it remains a critical factor supporting BTC’s price momentum in the current bull cycle.
Macro at a glance 
Last Thursday (June 26, 2024)
US initial jobless claims remained in a low range, with 236,000 claims reported last week, outperforming the forecast of 244,000.
US durable goods orders are projected to show a significantly higher monthly growth of 16.4% in May, compared to the previous estimate of 8.6%. This notable upward revision may be attributed to the 90-day postponement of reciprocal tariffs, with the current deadline set for July 9.
Last Friday (June 27, 2024)
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index recorded a 2.3% annual increase in May, in line with market expectations. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 2.7% year-over-year, slightly exceeding the forecast of 2.6%.
Monday (June 30, 2024)
China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 49.7 for June, marginally above the forecast of 49.6 and an improvement from May’s 49.5. This suggests a cautiously optimistic outlook, indicating that the Chinese manufacturing sector may be approaching expansion territory.
Germany, one of the largest economies in the European Union, is projecting an annual inflation rate of 2.0% for June, down from the previous forecast of 2.2%.
Tuesday (July 1, 2024)
Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to report a 2.0% year-over-year increase in June, consistent with prior forecasts. Core CPI is also anticipated to remain steady at 2.3% annual growth.
In the US, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 52.9, surpassing the forecast of 52.0. The ISM Manufacturing PMI also improved to 49.0, slightly above the expected 48.8. Both indicators suggest that the US manufacturing sector is recovering and moving toward expansion.
Additionally, US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data revealed 7.769 million job openings in May, significantly higher than the forecasted 7.320 million.
Wednesday (July 2, 2024)
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change surprised markets with a decline of 33,000 jobs in June, contrasting with expectations of a 99,000 increase.
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gIn-depth analysis of the cryptocurrency circle: Can Bitcoin become the new gold?
Good morning! Get the latest news in the cryptocurrency world at a glance!
It has been repeatedly confirmed recently that Bitcoin (BTC) is definitely an asset worthy of major allocation. Against the backdrop of increasing market volatility and the overall decline in alternative currencies, Bitcoin has risen against the trend, demonstrating remarkable resilience.
The latest on-chain data shows that over 10,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges in the past 24 hours. What does that mean? Simply put, as long as there is someone selling in the market, there is a mysterious force behind it to control - these "dog traders" (note: an online nickname) are frantically absorbing the funds.
This wave of market trends is not incidental! Global capital is betting on the possibility of Bitcoin becoming "digital gold":
1. Frenzied purchases by institutions: Companies like Tesla, MicroStrategy, and other listed companies continue to increase their BTC holdings
2. Sovereign nations are joining the game: El Salvador, the Central African Republic, and other countries are including Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves.
3. Local financial testing in the United States: Texas and other state governments have begun exploring Bitcoin asset allocation
4. The game between individual investors and central banks: Data from the past two years indicates that under continuous selling pressure from individual investors, central banks and institutions worldwide have increased their positions.
The history is surprisingly similar! The trend of the gold market over the past two years reflects the current trend of Bitcoin:
- Individual investors continue to short sell
- Central banks and institutions are buying and storing on a large scale
- Market sentiment and capital flows are inversely related
The critical node is coming! If Bitcoin can break the $110,000 level and gain a foothold:
1. Alternative currencies are expected to launch a new round of the upward tide
2. Market sentiment will fully reflect
3. A new round of the rising cryptocurrency market may begin
The essence of the current market contradictions:
The macroeconomic environment is bleak (unfavorable U.S. tariff policies, and forecasts of adjustments in the U.S. stock market)
However, institutions are increasing their holdings (capital is optimistic about the long-term value of BTC)
Alternative currencies are going through a phase of sharp volatility (fluctuating violently with BTC's rise and fall)
Exclusive tips on investment strategy:
1. Keep your core positions unchanged: BTC is recommended as a strategic asset, and holding core positions for the long term is advised
2. Trading alternative currencies: Use Bitcoin to buy at low prices when it drops, and take profits in a timely manner when it rises.
3. Exploring innovative ways to play: Small amounts of money participating in emerging areas like layer two expansion solutions
Important reminder: The market is fraught with risks, please invest cautiously! This analysis is for reference only. Please ensure that investment decisions are made based on your risk tolerance. Remember that real wealth growth comes from continuous learning and independent thinking!
Today's interaction topic:
Do you think Bitcoin can replace gold as a global reserve asset? Welcome to engage in the comments section!
$BTC
BTC
104,529.23
+1.76%

Binance Futures Will Launch USDⓈ-Margined SXTUSDT Perpetual Contract Pre-Market Trading
This is a general announcement. Products and services referred to here may not be available in your region.
Fellow Binancians,
To expand the list of trading choices offered on Binance Futures and to enhance users’ trading experience, Binance Futures will launch SXTUSDT perpetual contract pre-market trading starting at 2025-05-02 08:30 (UTC) with up to 5x leverage. 
More details on the aforementioned perpetual contract can be found in the table below:  
USDⓈ-M Perpetual Contract
SXTUSDT
Launch Time
2025-05-02 08:30 (UTC)
Underlying Asset
SXT (Space and Time)
Project Information
Space and Time is a decentralized data warehouse that enables smart contracts and AI agents to securely process both onchain and offchain data using zero-knowledge cryptography.
Total Supply
5 Billion SXT
Settlement Asset
USDT
Tick Size
0.00001
Mark Price
Average of the last 10 seconds of trade prices, calculated every second.*Please see the section below
Capped Funding Rate
+2.00% / -2.00%
Funding Fee Settlement Frequency
Every Four Hours
Maximum Leverage
5x
Trading Hours
24/7
Multi-Assets Mode
Supported
About Mark Price:
Mark Price methodology during the pre-market trading period
Pre-market perpetual futures contract mark price is calculated using the following formula:
Mark Price = Average of last 10 seconds trade prices, calculated every second. If there are less than 21 transaction prices in the 10 seconds interval, the average of the price index will be based on the last 100 transaction prices. 
Pre-market Standard Perpetual Transition Period
Pre-market perpetual futures contracts will be converted to standard perpetual futures contracts when a stable index price can be derived from the spot market(s) (as determined by Binance). The mark price will gradually converge from pre-market trading Mark Price to the standard Mark Price calculation (Mark Price = Median (Price 1, Price 2, Contract Price)) during the transition period. Trading function is not affected during the transition period. Open orders and positions will not be canceled. 
Mark Price After the Pre-Market Trading Ends
When the pre-market perpetual futures contract ends, the Mark Price will be calculated using the following formula:
Mark Price = Median (Price 1, Price 2, Contract Price)
Leverage & Margin Tiers:
Leverage
Position (Notional Value in USDT)
Maintenance Margin Rate
5x
0 < Position ≤ 5,000
10.00%
4x
5,000 < Position ≤ 10,000
12.50%
3x
10,000 < Position ≤ 30,000
16.70%
2x
30,000 < Position ≤ 80,000
25.00%
1x
80,000 < Position ≤ 200,000
50.00%
Please Note: 
The pre-market trading will end and be converted to standard perpetual futures contract when the symbol is listed on the spot market(s). No separate announcement will be made.
The maximum funding rate of the aforementioned perpetual contract at the time of launch is +2.00% / -2.00%. 
The funding fee settlement frequency is every four hours.
Based on market risk conditions, Binance may adjust the specifications of the aforementioned Futures contract from time to time, which include the funding fee, tick size, maximum leverage, initial margin, and/or maintenance margin requirements.
Multi-Assets Mode allows users to trade the aforementioned perpetual contract across multiple margin assets, subject to the applicable haircuts. For example, when the Multi-Assets Mode is activated, users can use BTC as margin when trading the aforementioned perpetual contract. 
The aforementioned perpetual contract is subject to the Binance Terms of Use and the Binance Futures Service Agreement.
Futures and spot token listings are not correlated. A token listed on Binance Futures does not indicate nor guarantee that it will be listed on Binance Spot.
There may be discrepancies between this original content in English and any translated versions. Please refer to the original English version for the most accurate information, in case any discrepancies arise.
Further Information:
Trading Rules of USDⓈ-M Futures Contracts
Leverage and Margin of USDⓈ-M Futures Contracts
Binance Futures Fee Structure
How to Select Trading Pairs
Funding Rate History
Mark Price and Price Index
Multi-Assets Mode
Thank you for your support!
Binance Team
2025-05-02
Note: This announcement was amended on 2025-05-02 to provide information on the project’s total supply.