The Hodlherald Square

The U.S. inflation rate, which appears to be a domestic issue for America, is in fact a wave whose effects are felt around the world. This rate tells us how fast the average prices of goods and services are rising in the U.S., which directly means that the purchasing power of the dollar is decreasing over time. This report, issued monthly in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is not just a statistic but an indicator that determines the direction of the global economy and financial markets.

The most important purpose of this report is to guide the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve. Based on the inflation data, the Federal Reserve decides whether to raise interest rates to curb rising inflation or to maintain them to keep the economy moving. And this decision is not limited to the U.S.; its effects are felt worldwide.
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to control inflation, the U.S. dollar strengthens in the global markets. A strong dollar makes imports more expensive for countries that buy goods from the U.S. and increases the debt burden for nations that have taken loans in U.S. dollars. At the same time, due to higher interest rates, global investors may start pulling their money out of other countries and moving it into more profitable U.S. markets and bonds, which affects the flow of investment worldwide.
These effects are also seen in the global stock and crypto markets. An increase in interest rates makes it more expensive for companies to borrow, which negatively impacts their profits. In this situation, investors tend to move their money out of "risky" investments like stocks and into safer assets, which can lead to a decline in global stock markets. The same situation is observed in the crypto market. Although some people consider crypto to be a hedge against inflation, it has recently moved in tandem with the stock market, and an increase in interest rates can also cause its prices to fall.
Thus, the U.S. inflation report is a key that directly affects the value of the dollar, international trade, and the speed of financial markets, proving how interconnected the global economy truly is.
#USNonFarmPayrollReport
#AltcoinMarketRecovery
$ETH
$BTC

In der Welt der Finanzmärkte gibt es einige wichtige Ereignisse, die jeder Investor, Händler und Wirtschaftsanalyst mit Spannung erwartet. An erster Stelle steht der U.S. Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Bericht, der nicht nur eine Sammlung statistischer Daten ist, sondern das Lebenselixier der globalen Wirtschaft. Veröffentlicht am ersten Freitag jedes Monats vom U.S. Department of Labor, spiegelt dieses Dokument das Wachstum oder den Rückgang neuer Arbeitsplätze in allen Industrie- und Dienstleistungssektoren wider, mit Ausnahme des Agrarsektors. Dieser Bericht bietet nicht nur einen Überblick über die Gesundheit der U.S. Wirtschaft, sondern hat auch eine breite und tiefgreifende Auswirkung auf den Wert des Dollars, die Richtung der Aktienmärkte und die Politiken der Zentralbanken weltweit.

Die zyklische Natur der Kryptowährungs­märkte ist ein fundamentales Axiom für jeden ernsthaften Teilnehmer. Perioden parabolischen Wachstums, umgangssprachlich als Bullenmärkte bezeichnet, sind durch euphorische Stimmung, schnelle Kapitalwertsteigerung und einen weit verbreiteten Glauben an unbegrenzte Gewinne gekennzeichnet. Diese Umgebung ist jedoch voller Gefahren. Der unerfahrene Investor, getrieben von der Angst, etwas zu verpassen (FOMO), und einem Mangel an strategischer Disziplin, wird oft zum Anbieter von Ausstiegsliquidität für erfahrenere Akteure. Ein erfolgreicher Umgang mit einem Bullenmarkt erfordert ein tiefes Verständnis der Marktpsychologie, der Dynamiken des Kapitalflusses und ein robustes Framework sowohl für den Einstieg als auch, entscheidend, für den Ausstieg.

The cryptocurrency market is once again buzzing, and a new narrative is taking hold: Ethereum's rise. Long seen as Bitcoin's younger, more tech-focused sibling, Ethereum is now carving out its own legacy. This shift is not just about price; it's a fundamental change in market dynamics, with ETH leading the charge.
​The Trend and Dominance Surge
​For months, the market has watched Ethereum's price trend with bated breath. Following a significant consolidation period, ETH has recently broken past its previous all-time high of around $4,884, a crucial milestone that Bitcoin has yet to reclaim. This is a powerful signal. Instead of Bitcoin leading the bull run, we're seeing capital flow directly into Ethereum, pushing its market dominance higher. This isn't just a fleeting moment; it suggests a maturing market where investors are increasingly recognizing Ethereum's fundamental value as the backbone of decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and Web3 applications.
​Ethereum's Role in Altseason
​Ethereum's strong performance is widely seen as the primary catalyst for a new "altseason." The classic market cycle has typically been: Bitcoin rallies, then consolidates, and then capital rotates into Ethereum, followed by a surge in the broader altcoin market. This time, however, Ethereum's breakout is happening first, accelerating the process. As the largest and most liquid of the "altcoins," Ethereum acts as the gateway for capital to flow into the rest of the ecosystem. A new ETH all-time high not only validates the network but also instills confidence in the entire altcoin space, leading to explosive gains for smaller, more speculative tokens that rely on the Ethereum network.
A Look at the Charts: Last Bottom and New Highs
​Ethereum's journey to its recent record high has been a rollercoaster. After its previous all-time high, the market experienced a significant downturn, with ETH finding its last major bottom in the bear market. This period of correction was essential for the market to reset and build a stronger foundation for the next leg up. The recent all-time high break is a monumental event, confirming the end of the previous cycle's downtrend and the start of a new, potentially explosive, bull run. Analysts are even eyeing the possibility of ETH hitting $15,000 before the end of the year, driven by institutional interest and the success of spot ETH ETFs.
​The Upgrades That Define the Future
​This price action isn't just hype; it's a reflection of continuous, fundamental improvements to the network. The most significant of these was The Merge, which transitioned Ethereum from a power-hungry proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism to a more energy-efficient and scalable proof-of-stake (PoS) model. This was followed by the Shanghai/Capella upgrade, which enabled users to withdraw their staked ETH, providing more liquidity and flexibility for stakers. The most recent upgrade, Pectra, which went live on May 7, 2025, introduced key changes like an increased validator stake limit and features that improve usability and gas efficiency, further solidifying Ethereum's technological lead and preparing it for mass adoption.
​Ethereum's evolution is a story of deliberate, strategic development. Its recent price action, rising dominance, and role in sparking altseason are all tied to a robust roadmap that is consistently delivering on its promises. As the network becomes more scalable, secure, and user-friendly, its position as the "digital oil" powering the decentralized future seems more assured than ever.
#BTCWhalesMoveToETH
#CryptoRally

In the fast-paced world of cryptocurrency trading, every price movement is scrutinized for a potential signal. A "breakout"—a move by an asset's price beyond a key support or resistance level—is often seen as a significant indicator of a new trend and a green light for traders to enter a position. However, these signals can be deceptive, leading to what are known as "fake breakouts" or "fakeouts." For both novice and experienced traders, understanding this phenomenon is crucial to protecting capital and making informed decisions.
What is a Fake Breakout?
A fake breakout is a failed breakout. It occurs when the price of a cryptocurrency briefly pushes past a well-established support or resistance level, enticing traders to believe a new trend is forming, only to quickly reverse direction and move back within its original trading range. This sudden reversal often traps traders who entered a position based on the false signal, leading to rapid losses.
There are two primary types of fake breakouts:
* Bull Trap: This occurs when the price breaks above a resistance level, suggesting an upward (bullish) trend is about to begin. New buyers, or "bulls," rush into the market, driving the price higher. However, the momentum fails to sustain, and the price quickly drops back below the resistance level. This reversal often catches late-to-the-party traders on the wrong side of the market.
* Bear Trap: The inverse of a bull trap, a bear trap happens when the price falls below a support level, signaling a downward (bearish) trend. Traders who "short" the asset, expecting further price declines, enter the market. The price then rebounds sharply, moving back above the support level and forcing those who shorted to close their positions at a loss.
The Psychology and Mechanics Behind Fakeouts
Fakeouts are not random market events; they are often a product of market psychology and the intentional actions of large-scale traders, sometimes referred to as "whales." Here’s how the deception works:
* Liquidity Hunting: Large market players are aware of where many retail traders place their stop-loss orders. These stop-loss orders are often clustered just above a resistance level (for those who have shorted) or just below a support level (for those who are long). By briefly pushing the price beyond these levels, whales can trigger a cascade of stop-loss orders, providing them with the liquidity needed to fill their own, much larger positions, often in the opposite direction.
* The Herd Mentality: When a price appears to be breaking out, it triggers a rush of fear of missing out (FOMO) among retail traders. They see the upward or downward momentum and jump in, often without waiting for confirmation. This influx of capital creates a brief, artificial surge, which can be easily reversed once the initial buying or selling pressure subsides.
How to Identify and Avoid Fake Breakouts
While no method is foolproof, combining several analytical techniques can significantly increase your ability to distinguish between a genuine breakout and a deceptive one.
1. Volume Confirmation: A genuine breakout should be accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume. This indicates that a large number of buyers or sellers are supporting the move. If a price breaks a key level on low or declining volume, it's a strong red flag that the breakout lacks conviction and may be a fakeout.
2. Candlestick Analysis: Pay close attention to the closing of the candlestick after a breakout attempt. A weak breakout is often marked by a "pin bar" or a long "wick," which shows that the price was rejected at the new level and closed back inside the original range. Waiting for a candle to close fully outside the support or resistance level is a critical confirmation step.
3. Multi-Timeframe Analysis: What looks like a breakout on a short-term chart (e.g., the 15-minute or 1-hour chart) may simply be noise on a longer-term chart (e.g., the 4-hour or daily chart). Always check higher timeframes to confirm that the breakout aligns with the broader trend. A breakout against the prevailing long-term trend is more likely to be a fakeout.
4. The Wait-and-See Approach: The simplest and often most effective strategy is patience. Instead of entering a trade the moment a price breaks a level, wait for a "retest." This is when the price returns to the broken level, which now acts as new support (in a bullish breakout) or new resistance (in a bearish breakout). If the level holds and the price moves in the new direction, it provides a much stronger signal.
Turning Fakeouts into Opportunities
For advanced traders, a fake breakout is not just a risk to be avoided—it can be a high-probability trading opportunity. A failed breakout is a powerful signal that the market is likely to move in the opposite direction. Recognizing a bull trap, for instance, can be a signal to initiate a short position, while a bear trap can signal an opportunity to go long. This contrarian strategy, however, requires a high degree of skill and risk management.
In the end, navigating the crypto markets is a matter of discipline and observation. By understanding the nature of fake breakouts and implementing a strategy that prioritizes confirmation over speed, traders can minimize their risk and avoid falling prey to the market’s deceptive tricks.

After traversing the tempestuous seas of cryptocurrency markets for 7.8 years, a period punctuated by epochal bull runs and precipitous corrections, I've synthesized a collection of hard-won maxims that distinguish the enduring from the ephemeral. The journey, which commenced in the nascent stages of the 2017 bull cycle, served as a crucible, forging a resilient and disciplined approach from the crucible of initial hubris and unbridled speculation. My early foray, a classic neophyte's tale of chasing exponential gains with an utter absence of strategic foresight, yielded not riches, but invaluable, albeit costly, lessons.
The Imperative of Disciplined Praxis
Herein lies the codification of principles that, had I embraced them earlier, would have mitigated a significant portion of my early attrition:
* Formulate a Pre-emptive Trading Protocol. The act of engaging the market without a codified plan is a form of cognitive dissonance. My current methodology mandates a tripartite entry schema: defining a point of entry, a predetermined invalidation level for risk management, and a sequential series of profit targets. To deviate from this protocol is to regress from calculated speculation to unmitigated wagering.
* Employ Discretionary Capital Only. The sanctity of one's financial well-being must supersede the allure of speculative returns. Engaging in market activities with capital essential for sustenance or security introduces an emotional calculus that invariably leads to suboptimal decision-making. The psychological duress engendered by such a practice corrodes one's capacity for rational judgment, fostering impulsivity and capitulation.
* Subjugate the Id to a Defined Exit Strategy. The hypertrophic nature of greed, particularly in the face of parabolic price action, is a primary vector for capital erosion. I have borne witness to a myriad of instances where accrued gains were surrendered through a refusal to actualize profits. A rigid adherence to pre-established profit targets immunizes one against this self-destructive impulse.
* Cultivate a Unique Trading Modality. The mimicry of others' methodologies is a form of epistemic theft that fails to account for idiosyncratic variables such as risk tolerance, temporal availability, and psychological disposition. The pursuit of a trading style congruent with one's personal and professional rhythms is paramount. My own period of uncritical emulation of a prominent crypto pundit's scalping strategy was an abject failure, as our respective operational parameters were fundamentally incompatible.
* Acknowledge and Mitigate Emotional Biases. Affective heuristics, such as Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) and panic-induced capitulation, represent the most formidable antagonists to a trader's longevity. The market, in its ceaseless oscillations, capitalizes on these primitive emotional responses. The impulse to enter a position during a vertical ascent is often the most potent signal to abstain.
* Embrace Methodical Patience. The most proficient market participants are often characterized by their conspicuous lack of activity. They patiently await the manifestation of their specific setups, eschewing the frenetic pursuit of every price fluctuation. The recognition that the most judicious action is, at times, inaction is a hallmark of sophisticated trading.
* Adopt a Probabilistic, Long-Term Perspective. Individual trades, whether profitable or not, are mere data points in a broader statistical narrative. Success is not a function of a singular, spectacular gain but rather the aggregation of consistently profitable outcomes over an extended period. The diligent maintenance of a trading journal, a record of both successes and failures, facilitates an iterative process of continuous improvement.
Additional Maxims for the Discerning Trader
* Mastery of Capital Allocation is Foundational. Position sizing is not a trivial detail; it is the cornerstone of risk management. Over-leveraging a position, regardless of the perceived probability of success, exposes one's portfolio to existential threats from minor, unforeseen volatility. The principle of preserving capital must always precede the pursuit of potential returns.
* Liquidity Precedes All Other Metrics. Do not conflate a compelling narrative or technological promise with a viable trading asset. Thinly traded assets are susceptible to extreme manipulation and significant slippage, rendering them unsuitable for all but the most patient, long-term investors. A robust market structure with adequate liquidity is a prerequisite for predictable execution.
* Differentiate Between Volatility and Trend. Not all price action is indicative of a trend. Volatility, a measure of price dispersion, can be a distraction. The capacity to discern a sustained directional move from mere market noise is an advanced skill that is honed through a meticulous study of price action and volume.
* Continuously Iterate Your Thesis. The market is a dynamic, evolving system. A fixed, dogmatic viewpoint is a liability. Your trading thesis, whether based on fundamental or technical analysis, must be a living document, subject to perpetual revision in light of new information and shifting market paradigms.
* The Post-Trade Review is Non-Negotiable. The true learning begins after the trade is closed. A meticulous analysis of every trade—win or loss—is critical. This involves dissecting the initial rationale, evaluating the execution, and identifying any psychological or procedural errors. This practice transforms each trade into a pedagogical opportunity.
* Embrace a 'Skin in the Game' Mentality. Your conviction should be quantifiable and a direct function of your personal risk exposure. Avoid the platonic intellectualism of 'paper trading.' The visceral connection between risk and reward in a live environment is the only true teacher.
* Resist the Temptation of 'Information Overload.' The deluge of data from social media, news outlets, and an endless array of 'on-chain' metrics can be a paralyzing force. Develop a curated set of informational inputs that are genuinely useful to your specific strategy and filter out the rest. The signal-to-noise ratio in this space is critically low.

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Pakistan's decisive shift towards the formal integration of virtual assets into its national economy is a monumental development, built upon a meticulously crafted framework and a series of strategic agreements. This policy pivot, formalized by the Virtual Assets Act, 2025, transcends mere legalization; it is a comprehensive strategy to harness the transformative potential of Web3 and blockchain technology for sustainable economic growth and global financial alignment.
The Foundational Framework
The Virtual Assets Act, 2025
At the heart of this new era is the Virtual Assets Act, 2025, which provides the legal and institutional infrastructure for a regulated crypto economy. Key provisions of this landmark legislation include.
Establishment of the Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA)
This autonomous federal body is the central pillar of the regulatory framework. Its mandate is expansive, covering the licensing, supervision, and monitoring of all Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs). PVARA is tasked with developing a structured licensing regime with stringent requirements for operational capacity, corporate governance, and AML/CTF compliance, bringing the sector in line with global best practices, particularly those set forth by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF).
The PVARA Governing Board
The composition of PVARA's board reflects a "whole-of-government" approach. It includes top-tier officials such as the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the Chairpersons of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) and the Federal Board of Revenue (FBR), and the Secretaries of Finance, Law, and IT. This multi-stakeholder representation ensures a coordinated and comprehensive strategy for the digital asset economy.
A Shariah Advisory Committee
Recognizing Pakistan's commitment to Islamic finance, the Act mandates the creation of a dedicated Shariah Advisory Committee. This body will advise PVARA on the religious permissibility of virtual asset products and services, providing a clear path for the development of Shariah-compliant digital financial instruments.
Regulatory Sandbox
The legislation incorporates a framework for responsible innovation through a regulatory sandbox. This allows emerging fintech and blockchain projects to be tested under supervisory oversight, fostering an environment where innovation can flourish while mitigating systemic risks.
The Role of the Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC)
Established in March 2025, the Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC) is a government-backed initiative designed to spearhead the country's Web3 agenda. Led by Minister of State and CEO, Bilal Bin Saqib, the PCC serves as the primary advisory body to the government on all matters related to virtual assets.
Policy Formulation
The PCC is instrumental in formulating and implementing Pakistan's national crypto strategy, working closely with PVARA to establish a clear and predictable regulatory environment.
International Collaboration
The PCC is actively forging partnerships to position Pakistan as a regional leader. This is evidenced by its recent landmark agreement with Kyrgyzstan to promote bilateral cooperation in cryptocurrency, blockchain, and digital finance. Discussions are also underway for a similar Memorandum of Understanding with the United States following a high-level meeting between Bilal Bin Saqib and US officials.
Strategic Advisory Board
To inject global expertise into its framework, the PCC appointed Changpeng Zhao (CZ), co-founder of Binance, as a Strategic Advisor. During his visit to Islamabad in April 2025, CZ held extensive meetings with the Prime Minister, Finance Minister, and the leadership of the SBP and SECP. His advisory role is to provide guidance on a broad range of topics, from regulatory best practices and infrastructure development to education and market adoption strategies, effectively fast-tracking Pakistan's entry into the global digital finance arena.
The State Bank of Pakistan's Proactive Stance
The SBP, once cautious, has become a key driver of this digital transformation. Its recent initiatives underscore a forward-looking approach
Digital Currency Pilot Program
In a significant announcement in July 2025, SBP Governor Jameel Ahmed confirmed that the central bank is preparing to launch a pilot program for a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). This initiative, developed in collaboration with the Finance Division and the PCC, is a strategic move to modernize the country's payment infrastructure and explore the benefits of a state-backed digital currency.
Mainstream Integration
The SBP is actively working to integrate virtual currencies into the mainstream financial system. High-level meetings with stakeholders, including banks, forex firms, and gold traders, have been held to brief them on the benefits and on the SBP’s plans to issue licenses for crypto trading to these financial institutions, with a view to establishing a secure and transparent ecosystem for digital assets.
Clarification of Legal Status
The SBP has officially clarified that while it previously cautioned against virtual assets, they are not illegal. It has been actively working with the government to create the regulatory framework necessary to manage the risks and opportunities associated with this new technology.
This cohesive and comprehensive strategy, involving legislative action, institutional reform, international collaboration, and proactive central bank initiatives, solidifies Pakistan's position as a serious contender in the global Web3 economy. It signals a new chapter where innovation is embraced, and the once-informal digital asset sector is transformed into a regulated, transparent, and economically vibrant component of the nation's financial future.
•. Content Creator
~ Nadeem Afridi

Wenn eine Münze "dreimal den Boden erreicht", ist das eine Phrase, die in der technischen Analyse verwendet wird, um ein Dreifachtief-Chartmuster zu beschreiben. Dies ist ein sehr signifikantes Muster für Händler, da es ein bullishes Umkehrsignal ist.
Was ist es?
Ein Dreifachtief ist ein Chartmuster, das am Ende eines Abwärtstrends entsteht. Es signalisiert, dass der Verkaufsdruck für die Münze nachlässt und Käufer die Kontrolle übernehmen, was zu einem neuen Aufwärtstrend führen könnte.
Wie man es identifiziert
Das Muster besteht aus drei Schlüsselbestandteilen:
* Drei Tiefs: Der Preis der Münze fällt auf ein bestimmtes Unterstützungsniveau, erholt sich, fällt ein zweites Mal auf dasselbe Niveau, erholt sich und fällt dann ein drittes Mal auf dasselbe Niveau. Diese drei Tiefs sollten ungefähr zum gleichen Preis liegen.