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We have talked about the 4-year Cycles of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) countless times but this is the first time we put them along the smaller phases within them, using the Time Fibonacci levels and the historic Halving events.
Basically we have divided each 4-year Cycle (going from bottom to bottom) into two smaller ones, the Accumulation and Distribution Phases. Those in turn are divided into two smaller ones themselves (4 in total), three Bull Phases and one Bear, which suits perfectly the 4-year Cycle Model that suggests that on average each Bull Cycle lasts 3 years and Bear Cycle 1 year.
As you can see, the Halvings and Time Fibs help at identifying the appropriate action within those smaller Cycles much more efficiently. For example the most effective Accumulation action is typically taken before the Halving, during the first year of the Cycle (first 1/4 mini Cycle). Halvings take place historically around the 0.382 Time Fib (not displayed on the chart because it overlaps the words). Re-accumulation usually takes place on the second 1/4 mini Cycle within the 0.236 - 0.5 Fib Zone, while the most efficient distribution takes place on the third 1/4 mini Cycle.
Right now we are 1 month after the first half of the current Bear Cycle and as shown on multiple previous analysis, the most common Target before it bottoms is $50000, which would also be a contact with the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), where the previous Bear Cycle bottomed.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) showcases another prime cyclical feature, which has so consistently done since its inception. It is not only the impressive symmetry among its 4-year Cycles but also 'smaller' characteristics along the way for those who pay close attention.
One such example is the Higher Lows trend-line that starts after every BTC Bear Cycle bottom. When the price breaks below this trend-line during the next Bear Cycle, the market drops another -43.51% at least (the other two cases have declined by -48.19% and -49.08%).
The current Higher Lows trend-line broke back in late January and the -43.51% minimum decline from that point lands at $50000. That is yet another cyclical feat that points towards that Target. As mentioned numerous times on our analyses, by the end of the year such Target would also make contact with the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), which is where the previous (2022) Bear Cycle bottomed.
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