TradingShot

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just completed a Death Cross on the 3D time-frame, which is when the MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses below the MA200 (orange trend-line).
Every time this took place since 2014 during a Bear Cycle, BTC dropped by at least another -52%. That was the case of the 2022 and 2018 Bear Cycles, while in 2014 it declined by -57%.
At the same time, it reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (in 2022 and 2018) from the level the Death Cross happened 2014 bottomed a little over the 1.618 Fib).
As a result, if history repeats itself, the above levels create an 'Effective Buy Zone' of $40000 (1.618 Fib) to $36000 (-52%).
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

XRP (XRPUSD) easily hit our 1.4500 Target that we set 1.5 month ago (January 23, see chart below):

The Channel Down remains the dominant pattern long-term, which has been in effect since the July 18 2025 All Time High (ATH), effectively guiding the market through this new Bear Cycle.
Having also tested (and rebounded on) the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) on the February 06 Low, the next technical Target (and Support), is the 1M MA100 (black trend-line). This level is of the utmost significance as it is where the bottom of the previous Bear Cycle was formed (June 13 2022) as well as the July 01 2024 Low. Practically supported the market numerous times from June 2022 to October 2024.
As a result, we expect XRP to re-test that level in the coming short months with our Target being a little higher at $0.9000, which would complete a -62.40% decline from the January 06 2026 High, the same % the market declined from July 18 2025 to October 10 2025.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$XRP #xrp #Ripple #XRPUSD #XRPUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is making this week a strong counter-trend (Bear Cycle) rally, confirming to a large extent the cross Cycle analysis we published almost two months ago (February 17, see chart below):

The model accurately predicted a rise to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (around $72500) from the last High, with BTC touching $74000 even. Based on this, we thought it would be a good idea to revisit this chart and even make some additions to more accurately help us project the next stages of the Bear Cycle.
First of all, as you can see, based on the 2022 Bear Cycle, we are on Consolidation Stage 2, which in June 2022 was kept under the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Technically that is our Resistance currently. So as long as it holds, there are high probabilities to see the model continue to be repeated. Even the 1D RSI sequences among the two fractals are similar, with the RSI currently sitting at 56.00 around the same level as June 2022 (52.00).
So after Consolidation 2 got rejected on the 1D MA50 in 2022, BTC had another sharp sell-off, targeting the -0.5 to -0.618 Fibonacci extension Zone. The bottom of Consolidation 2 Stage was on the -0.5 Fibonacci extension. With the February 2026 Low being on the -0.618 Fib ext also, we can confirm that a strong symmetry exists between the Bearish Leg structures of the two Bear Cycles.
As a result, if the same conditions continue to apply and the 2022 script continues to be replicated, Bitcoin should target next at least the new -0.5 Fib ext a little under $50000. What could follow after that is Consolidation Stage 3, which can potentially be concluded with a 1D MA100 (green trend-line) test and rejection (under the 0.618 Fib as in July 2022) around $60000, followed by the final Bearish Leg to the eventual Bear Cycle bottom near the -0.236 Fib ext, a little over $40000.
Even though every Cycle is different, their core macro characteristics remain similar. So far the 2026 Bear Cycle is copying closely he 2022 one and it remains to be seen if it will continue to do so. This analysis only serves as a fair depiction/ path projection on the basic Resistance/ Support structures for the rest of the Bear Cycle.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just turned red on its Supertrend indicator on the 3W time-frame and that can actually be quite revealing for the remainder of the Bear Cycle.
First of all, with the exception of the 2018 Bear Cycle, there has historically been a very high symmetry between the Supertrend red and green switches. As you can see when the Supertrend turned green, long after the Bear Cycle bottom, it was almost around the same price level as when it turned red. It is a lagging indicator of course but says a lot about the cyclical structure of the market.
What's even more important is that historically (without exceptions), BTC always hit the 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the top of the candle hat formed the red Supertrend, forming a Cycle bottom marginally below it. In 2011 and 2018 it even broke below the 2.5 and 3.5 Fib extensions respectively.
On the current Bear Cycle, $50000 falls marginally below Fib 2.0, which is why (as we've mentioned before), it is the right level to start DCA buying for the long-term again. A tes o the 2.5 Fib ext would even get us close to $45000, another Cycle bottom candidate by many technical models.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to replicate the 2022 Bear Cycle, in fact it's been repeating the price action even before it as the build up sequence since 2021 is identical to the one of late 2024 - 2025.
BTC is right now at the 2nd Stage of consolidation right above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The 1st Stage was on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). With the 1W RSI oversold (below 30.00) as in June 2022, we might be facing a break below the 1W MA200 soon and new consolidation below it.
The November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom was priced exactly on the 1W MA300 (red trend-line) after it marginally broke below the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Even though this time the bottom might be even lower (45k-40k), a $50000 entry seems technically like a good opportunity for long-term buying.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

A little bit clickbait title I know but there aren't many better ways to describe the cyclical correlation between Doge (DOGEUSD) and XRP (XRPUSD).
Dogecoin's failure to post a new All Time High (ATH) during its last Bull Cycle (2023 - 2024) resembles XRP's identical ATH failure during its 2019 - 2021 Bull Cycle.
In fact, the whole macro multi-year structure among the two are similar with Dogecoin 'lagging' behind XRP around 3.5 years in price action. Of course this is not a real lag but the pattern's are indeed almost identical.
It remains to be seen if Doge eventually finds now Support on its 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the bottom of the long-term Triangle and turns sideways for the rest of the Bear Cycle just like XRP did in June 2022 and spent the remaining 6 months of the Bear Cycle consolidating.
If the pattern gets repeated exactly like XRP, then Doge can reach $1.00 by mid to late 2028.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$DOGE $XRP #Dogecoin‬⁩ #xrp #DOGEUSDT #Ripple #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed yesterday its 5th straight red monthly candle (1M), having dropped non-stop since its October 2025 All Time High (ATH). This is the 3rd time in its history that is on a 5 red month streak. The other two were in 2018 (six straight red months from August 2018 to January 2019) and in 2011 (from July to November 2011).
Both of those bearish streaks ended and formed Bear Cycle bottoms. So does the current red streak mean the Cycle has bottomed again? Not necessarily. That has to do mainly with the time positioning within the current Cycle. And based on the 4-year Cycle Model as well as the 1M RSI, we are far from its bottom.
The 1M RSI in fact shows that it historically won't bottom before it hits its Lower Lows Zone. And that, based on its trajectory, should be towards the end of 2026, which matches perfectly the 4-year Cycle framework. As far a prices are concerned, such an RSI bottom could technically coincide with a 1M MA100 (green trend-line) test, which has never been touched but came close to during the last Cycle, around $40000.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on its way to close yet another red month, which will be its 5th straight since the October All Time High (ATH). This has only happened two times in its history and the last time we had 5 consecutive 1M red candles was December 2018 (other one was November 2011)! In both cases the Bear Cycle bottom was formed on that exact month.
Does this mean we are once more about to form the market bottom? Not exactly. And there has been no better indicator that has historically priced Cycle bottoms than the Fisher Transform.
As this 1M chart shows, every time the Fisher Transform made a Bullish Cross, BTC had already bottomed. On the December 2022 Fisher Cross, the bottom was a month earlier (shortest ever) while on the June 2015 Cross it was 5 months before (longest ever).
Given the fact that the distance between the Fisher Bullish Crosses on the previous two Bear Cycles has been highly symmetrical (1370 days between them), we can expect the next one to occur in September 2026. Assuming that we will have the shortest possible price bottom formation as on the previous Cycle, we can expect a market bottom in August 2026. Longest distance from the Cross (5 months) would mean an April 2026 bottom but that doesn't fit the Fisher's Bearish Legs model, which assumes a contact to be made with an 11-year Lower Lows trend-line. An August - September bottom on the other hand would fit well with a Fisher bottom on the Lower Lows trend-line.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has historically bottomed inside 3-4 months after its Ichimoku Conversion line (blue trend-line) crossed below its Base line (orange trend-line) on the 1M time-frame. This is what we call 'The Ichimoku Bearish Cross'.
Now even those that's by definition a bearish formation, in multi-year cyclical terms, it has historically been a signal of the beginning of the end of the Bear Cycle, it's bottoming process.
The time between the last two Ichimoku Bearish Crosses has been 30 days lower (1430 days as opposed to 1461). If this declining rate holds, then on the current Cycle we should see the Ichimoku Bearish Cross after 1400 days, i.e. in June 2026. Based on the current trajectory of the lines though, it seems likely that we will get that Cross in April 2026.
Three months after April, means that the Bear Cycle bottom should be in by July 2026, while three months after June means bottom in September 2026. Since we can't always catch either the exact Cycle Top or Bottom, what this very useful indicator does, is give us a projected time period to engage into long-term bottom buying again and that's the July - September 2026 period. Whatever the price BTC might be trading at by then (our estimates give a fairly projected $50000 - $40000 Zone), it would be a good idea from a DCA perspective to have long-term buys placed.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has formed its first Bearish Cross on the Alligator indicator, with the green trend-line (Lips) crossing below the red trend-line (Teeth). Historically this has always coincided with the start of the Bear Cycle's bottoming process.
Note that this doesn't mean that BTC has hit the bottom. But more likely that the market will start slowing down the brutal 5-month crash it's been on since the October 2025 All Time High (ATH) and will enter a Zone that will start offering the Cycle's buying opportunities for DCA. Moreover, the crossing this month below the blue trend-line (jaw) aligns with this slowdown theory.
Notice also how symmetrical each 1st Alligator Bearish Cross has been, meaning that the current Cycle hasn't diverged much from the previous ones.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to have the worst month currently (February) since basically June 2022. On this analysis we bring you the SOTT (Signs Of The Times) Indicator that has accurately identified in the past BTC's confirmed Sell (red circles) and Buy (green circles) spots.
As you can see, since 2014, the confirmed Sell Signal of SOTT has been at the top of the orange curve and the confirmed Buy Signal when the purple shade switched color. The time rang between those has historically been (16 months 2014 Bear Cycle, 15 months 2018 Bear Cycle and 13 months 2022 Bear Cycle).
As a result, given that the most recent Sell Signal was in September 2025, the next confirmed Buy Signal should be around December 2026 (15 months). That matches very well the majority of the Bear Cycle bottom analyses we've conducted so far.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

We have shown how Bitcoin (BTCUSD) almost hit its 1W MA200 earlier this month, ushering Stage 2 of the current Bear Cycle that gradually, after another potential consolidation, will eventually lead to the Cycle bottom.
An overlooked, but very powerful historically, indicator relative to market bottoms is the CVDD (Coin Value Days Destroyed). An on-chain BTC indicator, it calculates the cumulative sum of "Coin Days Destroyed" (value-time destruction) as coins move from old to new hands, weighted by the USD value at transfer time.
So earlier in February, the price hit the shifted CVDD (black trend-line) and has since turned sideways. The actual CVDD (green trend-line) currently sits around $49000 but trending downwards.
It is interesting to mention that during the past three Cycles, the CVDD got hit twice (on each Cycle). 2022 twice, 2018, 2020 and 2015 twice. It also priced accurately the 2011 bottom. Given the similarities of the current (2026) Bear Cycle with 2022 in particular, there is no reason not to expect another double bottom event (e.g. April and October) by which time the CVDD would be closer to $40000. This aligns with a number of other accurate Cycle bottom indicators as we've shown before.
Key Aspects of CVDD to keep in mind:
- Purpose: It acts as a reliable support line for Bitcoin price floors, often signaling when the market is deeply undervalued.
- Components: It combines Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) with the USD valuation of transactions to track when long-term holders (old hands) sell to new investors.
- Formula & Calculation: The metric is derived by multiplying a ratio of cumulative CDD and market age by a factor of 6 million.
- Top Indicator: While primarily a bottom indicator, it is sometimes used in tandem with multipliers (e.g., 5x or 10x) to signal when the market is overheated.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Following our Fibonacci comparative analysis of Ethereum (ETHUSD) between its 2022 and 2026 Bear Cycles almost 3 months ago (December 01 2025, see chart below) where we predicted the consolidation and January's - February's crash, we decided to take this a step further and add the 2018 Bear Cycle in the mix too:

The results are even more mind-blowing and help put the rest of the 2026 Bear Cycle into greater context.
With the 1W CCI sequences identical among the three Cycle fractals, we are now at a point where Stage 2 of the Cycle has already started. The question is of course how low can it go?
A relatively fair approach would be expecting it to drop and bottom somewhere within a potential -82% decline (as was the 2022 Bear Cycle) and the 1.5 Fibonacci extension from the Bull Cycle's last pull-back. As you can see this has been consistent on the 2018 Cycle too.
A triple bottom below the CCI's -100.00 (oversold) level would also be a fair estimate (again was an optimal long-term buy entry in 2018 and 2022). A break and 1W closing above its 1D MA200 (red trend-line) has also confirmed the start of the new Bull Cycle in both 2019 and 2023.
As a result, we have a cyclical Buy Zone within the $900.00 - $750.00 range.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$ETH #ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSD #ETHUSDT #signals

We have already shown on various recent analyses how Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is replicating the Bear Cycle of 2022. Our latest finding is a very unique feat that BTC does after every major Low.
As this chart shows, when the 1W RSI turns oversold (below 30.00), Bitcoin starts a lengthy consolidation that extends primarily up to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. This range (0.0 - 0.382 Fib) constitutes a Consolidation phase. It was even present on the last Low before the Bull Cycles of 2021 and 2025 topped.
Right now it appears we have just started the 2nd Consolidation phase of the Bear Cycle following the early February crash (RSI again oversold even below 20.00). So far this '0.382 Fib consolidation rule' has been validated as the initial rebound tested the 0.382 Fib and got rejected back into range.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last week its 2nd straight 1W candle above the 1W EMA200 (red trend-line), which now becomes the center focus of the market for one simple reason. During the 2022 Bear Cycle, it was the 1W EMA200 that supported BTC's 2nd selling wave once it hit it.
As you can see, the 1st selling wave found support on the 1W SMA100 (green trend-line), consolidating for several weeks (closing all weekly candles above it) before crashing into the 2nd wave. So far that held perfectly in the 2026 Bear Cycle as well, it even stayed below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level as in 2022.
So now that the 2nd selling wave has found the 1W EMA200's Support, it remains to be seen if it will again consolidate there for a few weeks (on the 0.382 Fib as well this time), like BTC did in 2022, before crashing into the 3rd selling wave below the 1W SMA200 (orange trend-line).
Yet again it appears that the 1W SMA350 (black trend-line) is the level that Bitcoin will be looking for (at least) during this Bear Cycle as well.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently sitting on the 4th straight red week following last week's near test of its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). As we've discussed before, the Bear Cycle may be entering Phase 2 when the 1W MA200 finally breaks.
From a Fibonacci perspective, last week's Low also came close to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the last Bear Cycle bottom. That was when the lengthy bottoming process started for BTC. Also that 1W MA200/ 0.382 Fib break coincided with a near test of the 2.0 Fib extension (blue) from the first Low of the 2022 Bear Cycle.
That is currently around $51000 and the Zone within that and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from the Bear Cycle bottom (around $45000) is the 'Sweet Spot'. Practically this is a 'no-miss' Buy Zone on a cyclical perspective where long-term investors can start feeling comfortable enough to initiate buying again. We've already discussed why a 1W MA350 (red trend-line) bottom would technically make sense, as this is where the 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to be under heavy pressure despite having the 1W MA200 holding the crash last week. Having long lost its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which confirmed the Bear Cycle, we are now approaching its 2nd Phase, which is the bottoming process.
This doesn't mean that the bottom is here but more like that the market is entering a Phase where it will gradually attempt to lead us to the bottom of the 4-year Cycle, which based on it should be around September - October 2026.
Having a look at the past three Bear Cycles and drawing their Phase 2 fractals after the 0.5 Fibonacci level, that led to their bottom, we can see that the structure is quite familiar. Not identical, but similar. All principles are the same and there is a high correlation with the 2022 Bear Cycle in particular.
Even though we haven't yet technically reached the middle (0.5 Fib) of this Bear Cycle, according to that fractal, BTC should start making a series of Lower Lows gradually, that can potentially lead to as low as $40000. That could be the Bear Cycle bottom.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is again on the downturn after almost reaching its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) just last week. One would thought that long-term buyers would make their presence clear on this historically supportive level but so far their absence is more than emphatic. If this continues, the market eyes the next critical Support level, the 1W MA350 (red trend-line), which is where the previous 2022 Bear Cycle bottomed.
In fact, we identify a quite similar pattern on BTC's last three major correction events (2022 Bear Cycle and late 2019 - early 2020 on COVID flash crash). As you can see a Double Top rejection followed by a Higher Lows trend-line bearish break-out has been the common pattern on all (including the current correction). The previous two both broke below the 1W MA200 and their respective 1.618 Fibonacci extension levels, with the 2022 fractal bottoming just above the 1.786 Fib ext while the 2020 below it. In both cases, the 1W MA350 held.
As a result, if buyers continue to be absent and BTC is getting heavily sold after every short-term rally, we can expect the market to target $50000, which isn't just the next psychological level but also just above the current 1.786 Fib and will still be above the 1W MA350 (based on its current trajectory).
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #BTC #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached (almost) its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) last week fastest than any other Bear Cycle before. At the same time, its 1W LMACD hit the same symmetrical level (blue) it did every time BTC completed the 1st Stage of the Cycle. Especially in the case of the (previous) 2022 Bear Cycle, it was around the same time the price came close to the 1W MA200 as well.
As this chart shows, the 4-year Cycle bottom occurs around when the 1W LMACD makes a Bullish Cross after its hits -0.21. We are still far from that. But what past Bear Cycles show is that when the 1W LMACD has hit the current level, Bitcoin takes at best the same amount of time to bottom as it did from the start of the Bear Cycle to the moment the LMACD hit the current level (blue Support). That was particularly the case during the previous (2022) Bear Cycle (was 27 weeks from High to LMACD contact, and another 27 weeks until the Cycle bottomed). The two Bear Cycles before it, bottomed in less time.
As a result, given that last week completed 17 weeks from the Cycle Top up until the LMACD contact, the Cycle could bottom in the next 17 weeks (based on that model). This suggests the first week of June 2026, while the 4-year Cycle suggests mid-September. So what do you think is more likely to happen? Could that be BTC's shortest Bear Cycle ever?
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) completed a more than -50% drop last week from its October 2025 All Time High (ATH) while stocks stayed close to their ATH. This chart shows that while BTC is obviously on a Bear Cycle, the S&P500 (SPX) illustrated by the blue trend-line, is still on Bull Cycle territory.
So why this huge divergence between BTC and stocks. Well looking at it historically, this is not uncommon. During the 2022 Bear Cycle, Bitcoin had to crash by more than -40 before the stock market started its own correction, while in 2018 Bitcoin again crashed by more than -50% before the SPX started a Bear Cycle.
This is very logical from a long-term investing standpoint as investors seek first to liquidate the massive profits on riskier assets like Bitcoin, add some remaining capital on stocks and then when the stock market shows signs of a long-term correction, withdraw their funds from there as well. This is usually when the USD takes off as they convert stocks to dollars and choose to weather out the storm primarily in cash (others might choose precious metals).
In any event, this analysis shows that since Bitcoin is already down by more than -50% from its historic High, we might be seeing a Bear Cycle starting on the S&P500 as well.
Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea!
$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals