gold

1. What has driven gold prices higher, created volatility and what is next?
‎Land: Gold has historically performed well during periods of financial and geopolitical stress, and recent trade tensions, global conflicts and fiscal uncertainty across major economies have reinforced this trend. Structurally, elevated government debt, persistent fiscal deficits, and greater tolerance for inflation are undermining confidence in fiat currencies. High levels of leveraged speculation particularly in China, helped to push prices higher before a sharp correct to end of January.1 Despite the record declines, we still see fundamental support for elevated gold prices given constrained supply and growing demand.

2. Why are miners lagging bullion?
‎Land: Central banks and bullion-backed ETFs have fueled gold's rally, allowing bullion prices to rise materially faster than flows into mining equities. Many miners trade below historic multiples, with elevated free-cash-flow yields and attractive enterprise value (EV)/cash-flow multiples.2 We think valuations have been trailing gold spot prices by ~20%3 for the past couple years—a striking disconnect.
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‎3. Is the valuation gap justified?
‎Land: We don’t think so. The disconnect reflects investor perception rather than fundamentals. Investors still remember past cycles of cost inflation, capital misallocation, and dilution, but in our view the industry has changed. Today, miners have stronger balance sheets, better capital discipline and higher shareholder returns. At current gold prices, miners offer real operational leverage, with earnings and free cash flow climbing faster than the bullion price. Add continued macro tailwinds and gold’s negative correlation with the US dollar, and the case for miners looks well supported.
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‎4. Do fundamentals support higher gold equity valuations?
‎Land:In our view, absolutely. Elevated gold prices have driven exceptional earnings and cash flow growth. Third-quarter (Q3) 2025 delivered record profits for many producers, with Q4 likely to exceed those levels as gold averaged ~US$4,150/oz, up ~US$700 quarter-on-quarter (q/q) and ~US$1,500 year-on-year (y/y).4 Revenues should rise ~20% q/q and ~55% y/y, while operating costs have been tracking less than 10%5, materially expanding margins. With flat production, the combination of strong cash generation and attractive valuations has also powered mergers and acquisitions (M&A), helping miners unlock value y/y, replace reserves and position for long-term growth.
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‎5. How resilient are miners if gold prices decline?
‎Land: While elevated bullion prices warrant some caution, we estimate that miners have a substantial buffer. Sentiment can shift—think rising rates, easing inflation or declining geopolitical tensions—but we estimate gold prices would need to fall below ~US$3,500/oz before sector economics would start to resemble prior down cycles. Higher gold prices improve access to capital, increasing the exploration and development potential as well as project viability.#GoldSilverRally #goldanalysis $XAU #gold

#gold #silver

Gold & Silver Explode as Markets Turn Nervous 🚨
Gold has smashed back above $5,000, while silver reclaimed $80, flashing a clear warning signal from global markets. As highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter, investors are rushing into safe-haven assets amid rising volatility and economic uncertainty.
When fear enters the market, money runs to safety first. This sharp move in precious metals suggests that big players are preparing for turbulence, not chasing risk.
Smart investors are watching closely — because when gold and silver move like this, something bigger is usually brewing.
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#GOLD_UPDATE #Silver #GoldenOpportunity

Gold ended Friday higher after once again holding a major retracement area slightly above the 50-day moving average. Price tested this zone three times in five sessions last week, which suggests buyers are consistently stepping in at these levels. The key issue now is whether this repeated defense is strong enough to rebuild momentum toward the previous record high at $5602.23.

Spot gold settled at $4964.62, rising $183.95 (+3.85%).

CME Margin Hike: A Quiet Signal About Market Positioning

Gold’s recovery came even after another margin increase by the CME Group. That matters because margin hikes usually cool speculative activity. The fact that prices still pushed higher implies that stronger participants—those with deeper liquidity—remain active, especially in the $4700–$4500 region.

At the same time, higher margin requirements can reduce smaller trader participation, which may temporarily lower volatility and thin short-term liquidity.

Middle East Headlines: A Risk That Cuts Both Ways

Some market commentary pointed to geopolitical buying as the driver, but the price action doesn’t clearly support a classic safe-haven surge. In fact, reports of renewed U.S.-Iran talks may have reduced immediate fear-driven demand.

Still, this is not a resolved story. Any breakdown in negotiations could quickly revive conflict risk, and gold remains sensitive to that possibility.

Likely Drivers: Dollar Weakness and Risk Appetite

A more practical explanation for Friday’s strength is a softer U.S. dollar and improving demand for risk assets. With long-term tailwinds still in place—such as central bank accumulation and expectations of future Fed easing—this rally also fits the pattern of institutional bargain buying after a sharp correction.

Technical Structure: Typical Post-Peak Consolidation

From a chart perspective, gold is behaving like a market digesting a major top:

A liquidation drop from $5602.23 → $4402.38
A rebound move from $4402.38 → $5091.93
Now a choppy phase where buyers and sellers reassess fair value

The retracement zone between $5002.31 and $5143.89 is now a key level to watch—either as developing resistance or as a platform for a renewed push higher. On the downside, support remains concentrated between $4747.15 and $4541.88, with the 50-day moving average still acting as a critical reference point.

Outlook: A Range Market Until the Next Clear Trigger

For now, the market appears more likely to consolidate than immediately trend. Gold may need time to build a stronger support structure before another sustained leg upward becomes realistic.

This Week’s Focus

The most important technical marker is the 50-day moving average, which will begin rising more noticeably as the November breakout period enters the calculation. If price continues to respect it, it strengthens the case for stabilization. If it fails, it could become the level that triggers another sharp leg down.

$XAU #gold #FridaySellOff

Gold tokenization is the process of representing physical gold as digital tokens on a blockchain, making it easier to buy, sell, and trade. Each token is backed by a specific amount of gold stored in a secure vault, providing a transparent and auditable record of ownership. This innovation offers several benefits, including:
- Increased Accessibility: Fractional ownership allows investors to buy and sell smaller amounts of gold, making it more accessible to a wider audience.#gold
- Enhanced Transparency: Blockchain technology ensures that ownership records are immutable and publicly available, reducing the risk of fraud.
- Improved Liquidity: Tokenized gold can be traded 24/7, providing greater liquidity compared to traditional gold markets.
Some popular examples of tokenized gold include #gold
- Paxos Gold (PAXG): Pegged to one troy ounce of gold, regulated by the New York State Department of Financial Services.
- Tether Gold (XAUT): Backed by one troy ounce of gold, available on major exchanges like OKX and Bybit.
- Kinesis Gold (KAU): Pegged to one gram of gold, tradable on Bitmart and Kinesis Money.
#Gold

In early February 2026, while the crowd was frozen in shock watching blood-red screens — gold $XAU collapsing 21%, silver getting crushed 41% — something far more important was happening off-camera.
No panic.
No headlines.
No emergency press conferences.
China didn’t react.
China executed.
That crash wasn’t an accident. It looked more like a clearing operation — a financial “intermission” before an entirely different monetary order steps onto the stage.
1. WHERE DID $634 BILLION GO?
Data straight from the U.S. Treasury reveals a number Wall Street prefers not to highlight.
In 2013, China held $1.316 trillion in U.S. Treasuries — the largest creditor on Earth.

Today, that figure has dropped to $682.6 billion, the lowest level since 2008.

This isn’t pocket change. It’s larger than the GDP of Switzerland or Sweden. And notably, there was no visible panic selling.
Money didn’t disappear.
It relocated.
2. THE “7-PIECE PLAN”: HOW LONG HAS CHINA BEEN PREPARING?

What we’re witnessing isn’t a short-term response. It’s a script written years ago, now entering its most intense chapter.
Piece 1: Gold — Price Is Irrelevant
China’s central bank bought gold for 14 consecutive months, ignoring whether prices were $3,000, $4,000, or $5,000 per ounce.
This isn’t about price.
It’s about monetary sovereignty.
Gold still makes up only about 8.5% of China’s reserves. To reach Russia’s ~30% level, China would need 5,000–7,000 more tons — nearly $1 trillion worth. This race has barely started.

Piece 2: Choking Global Silver Supply
Since the start of the year, China has allowed only 44 companies to export silver, effectively controlling 60–70% of global supply.
Silver has already been in deficit for five consecutive years. This move didn’t tighten the room — it removed the oxygen.

Piece 3: CIPS — The Highway Around America
After watching Russia lose $300 billion when cut off from SWIFT, China drew a clear conclusion: payment systems are weapons.
CIPS now connects nearly 5,000 banks in 124 countries, with transaction volume growing over 40% annually. A parallel financial highway — no Washington approval required.

Piece 4: mBridge & the Digital Yuan
A digital settlement alliance including China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the UAE — and most shockingly, Saudi Arabia.
The architect of the petrodollar joining a China-led payment system isn’t a signal.
It’s a quiet declaration.

Piece 5: Trade Without the Dollar
Roughly one-third of China’s trade is now settled in yuan. Each percentage point shifted is permanent demand for dollars that never comes back.

Piece 6: The Debt Gravity Trap
Countries like Kenya are converting dollar debt into yuan debt. To repay, they must earn yuan — not dollars. Financial gravity is moving east.

Piece 7: Monetary Power Becomes State Policy
For the first time, “monetary power” sits alongside military and technology power in China’s official 2026–2030 national strategy.

This isn’t defense.
This is preparation for a post-USD world.
3. THE SILVER MARKET PARADOX: 356 SEATS, ONE CHAIR
On COMEX, there are currently 356 paper claims for every single ounce of registered physical silver.
If just 3% of holders demand delivery, the system breaks instantly.
While screen prices were smashed, physical silver traded at:
Japan: ~$130
Kuwait: ~$106
Paper price and real price are living in different universes.
4. WALL STREET DIDN’T PANIC — THEY BOUGHT
After the early-February 2026 collapse, the most revealing signal wasn’t fear — it was calm.
JP Morgan raised gold $XAU targets to $6,300.
Citi spoke openly about $150 silver $XAG .
Morgan Stanley advised clients to allocate 20% of portfolios to gold — unprecedented.
They aren’t watching price screens.
They’re watching central bank flows.

CONCLUSION: THIS WASN’T THE END — IT WAS INTERMISSION

The 21–41% crash in early February 2026 had all the fingerprints of a classic liquidity event: shake confidence, flush weak hands, accumulate quietly.
China is exiting the dollar via gold and silver.
Silver is facing the most severe physical shortage in modern history.
Trust is evaporating — metal is not.
Don’t stare at red numbers on a screen.
Watch the empty vaults — and the central banks filling theirs.
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.
In 1970, gold fell 50% before exploding multiple times higher.
If the rhyme holds, we’re standing right before the train leaves the station.

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This is a personal insights, not financial advice | DYOR

#GOLD #Silver #china