Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently testing its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the Bear Cycle's natural Resistance, for the first time since November 03 2025. A rejection here will confirm the extension of the Bear Cycle, which continues to be replicating the price action of the 2022 Cycle.
Technically both share a similar structure even before the Bear Cycles. The recent February Low breached below the All Time High (ATH) of the previous Cycle (red circle), which is exactly what the 2022 Bear Cycle did on he week of June 13 2022 (blue circle). After that, BTC made one last Low on its 1W MA350 (red trend-line), just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the previous Cycle, which just happened to be on the June 24 2019 High (orange circle).
That 0.786 Fib High trend-line now matches exactly the 1W MA350 and by August - September 2026 can make contact with the price at $50000. This is why we expect that to be the minimum Target of the current Bear Cycle and why Bitcoin should reverse to the downside again soon.
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