My cousin's psychological price level for bottom fishing BTC this round is around 40,000 dollars

But there are always people trying to shake my resolve, saying that at 60,000 I should start buying

To calm myself down, I simply opened TradingView

I went through the cycles of Bitcoin over the years again

History doesn't necessarily replicate completely

But many times it does indeed resemble astonishingly

From past data, it is very clear:

The maximum retracement of each bear market converges

The decline roughly shows a decrease of 3% - 7%

The last round retraced about -77.5% from high to low

Going further back, it was -84%, -86.9%, -93.7%

The further back you go, the less exaggerated the retracement becomes

But the bear flavor will not diminish because of this, it’s just more grinding

To further remind myself that it is highly likely not the bottom yet

I have also compared the monthly declines after each peak

The peak of this round appeared around October, about 4 months ago

The retracement has already reached -47%

Interestingly, the trends in this phase are similar to those in history

The performance in the four months after the peak is very similar

The drop isn't severe, but enough to make people restless

If we consider 126,000 in 2025 as the peak of this round:

Assuming this retracement falls around -70% according to a decreasing pattern

So the bottom range that may appear in 2026 will likely be around

$37,000 — $40,000

I vaguely remember that in the 2022 bear market, the market questioned every day:

Does Bitcoin still have a future? Is the four-year cycle still valid?

The emotions at that time were not as simple as panic

But rather a slower kind of despair:

You don't know how much longer you have to endure

I also don't know if the next rebound is the last chance to escape

And I now feel like the bear market has just begun to get serious

Because a real bear market doesn't end just because it stops falling

More often it will be:

Downtrend → Sideways → Rebound → Downtrend again → Sideways again

Repeatedly pulling away, gradually wearing down your confidence

Grinding until you really feel there's no hope

So many times I do not envy CZ and Sun Ge and their kind

The BTC OG who achieved great results

What everyone sees is their glory standing at the top of the mountain

Yet very few people think about: the process they have gone through

It is often a time of suffering, grinding, and full of uncertainty

The ability to persist until now relies entirely on time and faith