Today is Valentine's Day, and it is also the concentrated expiration date for ETH options (notional value of $479 million). The maximum pain point of $2,725 is far above the current price, theoretically giving sellers the momentum to push up. Meanwhile, Binance's top traders' long-short ratio has surged to 1.5396 (majority bullish), with $54 million in short liquidations over the past 24 hours, becoming fuel for the rise.

ETH current price is $2,080, reclaiming the psychological level of $2,000, daily RSI rising to 31-33 (departing from the oversold zone), MACD golden cross expanding, 4-hour Bollinger Bands opening upwards, short-term rebound trend established.

🕯️ Key points of the candlestick chart

• Upper resistance: $2,100 (previous high + strong pressure during the day), if broken, look towards 2,140-2,160

• Lower support: $2,000-2,020 (round number + pullback test for long), breaking below looks at 1,980 for long-short boundary.

• Medium-term target: If it stabilizes at 2,000, it is likely to challenge 2,200-2,500 (theoretical target of descending wedge).

🌊 Wave Simulation

✅ Path A (End of Wave C): OI has dropped to a three-year low, and the funding rate has created an extreme negative value of -0.006, indicating that the leverage clearing is nearing completion, and we are currently at the start of a rebound at the end of Wave C.

⚠️ Path B (Continuation Rebound): If it cannot break through 2,100, it will still belong to a 4-wave rebound in a downward continuation, with a subsequent 5-wave decline testing 1,900.

⚔️ Today's Strategy

🟢 Pullback long (Main Strategy): 2,000-2,020 shows a 1-hour hammer pattern/bullish engulfing, target 2,080-2,140, stop-loss below 1,980.

🔴 High short (Assistance): 2,080-2,100 encountered resistance with a 15-minute bearish signal, target 2,020-2,000, stop-loss above 2,120.

Options expiration dates are often accompanied by violent fluctuations and should not be heavily leveraged. If it stabilizes above 2,100 with increased volume, the short position will be invalid; if it breaks below 1,980, the long position should exit and observe.

The above is a real-time technical simulation and does not constitute investment advice. Contracts are risky; please set stop-loss orders.