Every time Bitcoin hits a new high, I have a dark thought:
What if that dormant genesis wallet that has been silent for 17 years suddenly moves? What would happen to us?
That feeling of having the sword of Damocles hanging over your head is something all seasoned investors understand.
I just saw this market from @0xProbable, and I suddenly understood why this thing can have a trading volume of 150 million USD.
"Will Satoshi move coins in 2026?"
Currently, the probability is 7.9% (Yes price 8 cents)
▰▰▰
Don't treat it as a gamble; this is "apocalypse insurance."
This 150 million in funds is most likely not gambling but buying insurance.
The logic is very appealing:
If you're fully invested in BTC and Satoshi moves coins, the market will absolutely crash, and your assets could shrink by 50%.
But if you spend a little money to buy "Yes" here:
Once a black swan occurs, this position could earn 12 times (0.08 -> 1).
This profit can perfectly hedge your spot losses.
Powerpei's operational logic:
I just bought a bit of "Yes."
I don't want it to happen (otherwise, the industry is finished), but I am willing to pay an 8% premium for this "just in case."
This is the highest form of prediction market usage.
Not to predict the future, but to hedge against a future we cannot afford.
If you are also fully invested, I suggest you take a look at this kind of on-chain accident insurance.
Spend a little money for peace of mind; this business is worth it.
What if that dormant genesis wallet that has been silent for 17 years suddenly moves? What would happen to us?
That feeling of having the sword of Damocles hanging over your head is something all seasoned investors understand.
I just saw this market from @0xProbable, and I suddenly understood why this thing can have a trading volume of 150 million USD.
"Will Satoshi move coins in 2026?"
Currently, the probability is 7.9% (Yes price 8 cents)
▰▰▰
Don't treat it as a gamble; this is "apocalypse insurance."
This 150 million in funds is most likely not gambling but buying insurance.
The logic is very appealing:
If you're fully invested in BTC and Satoshi moves coins, the market will absolutely crash, and your assets could shrink by 50%.
But if you spend a little money to buy "Yes" here:
Once a black swan occurs, this position could earn 12 times (0.08 -> 1).
This profit can perfectly hedge your spot losses.
Powerpei's operational logic:
I just bought a bit of "Yes."
I don't want it to happen (otherwise, the industry is finished), but I am willing to pay an 8% premium for this "just in case."
This is the highest form of prediction market usage.
Not to predict the future, but to hedge against a future we cannot afford.
If you are also fully invested, I suggest you take a look at this kind of on-chain accident insurance.
Spend a little money for peace of mind; this business is worth it.