At the Munich Security Conference, leaders acknowledged: the post-war order of 1945 is effectively exhausted.
According to Ray Dalio, this is Stage 6 of the Big Cycle — a period of chaos when rules become blurred, and power begins to dictate the terms.
Key theses:
➥ International relations increasingly resemble the law of the jungle: if a state is stronger than institutions like the UN — it sets the rules.
➥ Currently, 5 types of wars are happening in parallel:
trade, technological, geopolitical, capital, and military.
The first four can last about 10 years before direct confrontation begins.
➥ The most dangerous scenario is when the parties have comparable military power and irreconcilable contradictions. Today, the main flashpoint is the US and China (the Taiwan factor).
➥ Historical analogy:
The Great Depression of 1929 → tariff wars and protectionism → oil embargo against Japan → Pearl Harbor two years later.
➥ According to Dalio, the economic confrontation between the US and China mirrors the dynamics of the 1930s.
➥ Wars are financed through issuance, which devalues debt and currency. Market closures, capital controls, and the breaking of familiar 'safe' assets are possible during crises.
➥ Classic capital protection in wartime is to exit debt and buy gold.
Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund. His position is simple:
all great powers reach a peak, then decline. The US is one of the longest-living empires, but is now at a historical crossroads.