On February 19, 2026, tensions in the Middle East have reached a breaking point, involving conflicts in Israel-Gaza-West Bank, Syria, Lebanon-Hezbollah, Iran-America, and Yemen-Houthi. The condemnation of Israel in the UNSC, the U.S. withdrawal of troops from Syria, and Russia's warning to Iran have complicated the situation further. These conflicts are shaking the global economy, commodity, stock, and crypto markets. Details of the main conflicts include condemnation by countries like Pakistan and China in the UNSC for the violation of the ceasefire in Gaza and the plan for over 10,000 new settlements in the West Bank. Over 60,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, and 2 million have been displaced. Following the fall of Assad in Syria, fighting continues in Hasaka-Qamishli with the SDF, with a 4-day ceasefire and American troop withdrawal ongoing. In Lebanon, Hezbollah leaders were killed by Israeli airstrikes, leading to 1 million displaced. Russia warned of a U.S. attack on Iran, while Houthis in Yemen are attacking ships and planes. Impact on the commodity market: The Middle East produces 30% of the world's oil, leading to crude oil prices reaching $90-100 per barrel due to the conflict, which results in petrol-diesel prices of ₹100-110 per liter in countries like India. Natural gas and LNG prices have increased by 20-30%, contributing to inflation in Europe-Asia. Gold is at $2,800 per ounce and silver at $35 per ounce as investors turn to safe assets. There has been an increase in food oils, grains, and metals, but the supply chain is disrupted. In the long term, OPEC+ cuts together stabilize prices, but a rise in war presents a risk of $120 per barrel. Impact on the stock market: Global indices have declined by 2-5%: Dow Jones -3%, Nifty 50 -2.5% (at 22,500), Sensex down by 800 points. Energy stocks (Oil India, ONGC) increased by 5-10%, while aviation (IndiGo), chemicals, and auto (Tata Motors) fell by 4-7%. There is a sell-off in the tech and consumer sectors due to inflation and recession fears. Risks of declining FDI in India, but buying in defense (HAL, BEL) and refining. In the long term, Trump's peace initiative leads to recovery, but the next 1-2 months will be volatile. Impact on the crypto market: Bitcoin dropped from $85,000 to $78,000 (-8%), Ethereum fell from $2,800 to $2,500 (-10%) as investors went into risk-off mode and turned to stablecoins. Altcoins are down 15-20%, but XRP and SOL dropped by 5%. Rising oil prices have increased mining costs, which reduces BTC hashrate. Positive: The Georgia ETF and Trump's pro-crypto policy could push prices back to $100k in the long term, but there is pressure from dollar strength. Indian traders are leveraging on Binance/MetaMask. Broad impact on the global economy: Inflation will rise by 1-2%, the Fed/ECB will halt rate cuts, leading to a recession. India's CAD may rise to 2% of GDP, with RBI rates increasing. Gas cuts in Europe are shutting down industries, and China's Belt and Road projects are affected. GDP growth may decrease by 0.5-1%, but the U.S. benefits from energy exports. In the long term, there is a shift towards renewable energy. Practical advice for new investors: Do not panic sell, hold 70% of assets, and buy on dips. In India, continue SIPs of ₹10,000/month for a ₹5-10 lakh portfolio, using Groww/Zerodha. Volatility will remain for 1-3 months, followed by recovery.