One,
Tonight my son told me he doesn't like me, he likes mom.
When asked why, he said mom is good, dad is not.
When asked what is good and what is not, I couldn't answer.
Two,
In the past few days, there have been many things I want to write, too many threads, and there are also connections and entanglements. I have been sorting it out.
Perhaps the best way to express it is to tell a story without designing too much structure and framework.
Because my article focuses on one thing: content.
Three,
First, Trump and the White House officially announced today that they will start to deploy public documents regarding aliens.
In this regard, my view is very clear: aliens have always existed, such as (blue blood) (the true history of the world: human legends) (Montauk: contact with aliens), documentaries like (Sublime Supremacy) record this. Mini-movies like (Orion Conspiracy) I just watch as documentaries. There is too much information, both true and false, and without detailed long-term cross-comparison, it is impossible to discern.
The pursuit of the truth can only be a continuous journey; we can only get closer, never fully grasp it. But getting closer is enough.
Detailed differentiation and cross-comparison are very difficult for most people.
Most people are just waiting for some official source to tell them.
In fact, the acquisition and analysis of information in this world cannot rely on others.
I have to do it myself.
In Epstein's 3 million pages of documents, Trump was mentioned more than 1 million times (another source says more than 3 million times), but the documents were modified and redacted before release, leaving 38,000 mentions.
This is a good example.
Do not rely on anyone, and do not easily trust anyone.
I have no hope that Trump and the White House will release anything; I suspect they're more likely to use a mix of truth and falsehood to cover up many of the realities. After all, their history is far from honorable; they've done far too many shameful things.
There are many kinds of aliens, and from the perspective of Earthlings, they vary in good and bad. Those who made significant contact with the US government in the 1940s and 50s were the bosses of the Greys, the ones from Orion.
Why are so many people bloodthirsty, as documented in recently released files?
No one was arrested, and even whether Epstein was dead was in doubt.
This is closely related to the question of extraterrestrial life.
In 2021, when I said that Yimiao contained a Bluetooth module, many people didn't believe me. They also didn't believe the dangers I mentioned.
Sure enough, not only did many people experience side effects of varying degrees at the time, but in recent years many people have also died from sudden illnesses such as cerebral infarction and myocardial infarction, especially those in their fifties and sixties.
The aliens analogy is similar. Without seeing any connection, one can only make isolated arguments, making it difficult to distinguish truth from falsehood.
Once the big picture is grasped and verified, the details can be explored endlessly, but for ordinary people, there is not much need to dig into the details.
Understanding the principles allows you to interpret many things that are not easy to interpret in the first place.
For example, regarding "species diversity," there is originally only one species of human being, with only two types: male and female. In recent years, many organizations have been vigorously promoting transgender people and LGBT individuals.
By extension, this can be considered a prelude.
Aliens came, so what?
In this way, many people become completely unmoved.
With the extensive cannibalistic content in the Epstein files providing a psychological cushion, most people are more likely to accept future extraterrestrial human experiments.
Four,
Before the Spring Festival, there was a news report from Rizhao about a person who worked in Rizhao who flew back to his hometown of Tai'an in an aircraft (it seemed to be a small plane) to celebrate the Spring Festival.
The flight took just over an hour, significantly improving efficiency.
Application cases of low-altitude economy.
The news report wasn't written in the style of describing a wealthy person's private jet.
Instead, it describes a typical journey home for a middle-class person. Like the news of a young migrant worker from Beijing spending several days riding an electric scooter back to his hometown in Yunnan for the Spring Festival—it's a bit unusual, but not too far off the mark. It's understandable.
So, in the future, will low-altitude economic services really start to serve a large number of private flight needs?
The main obstacle here is probably no longer a technical issue, but rather a matter of controlling the fear among authorities around the world. Those who are afraid dare not loosen their grip, while those who are not afraid dare to loosen their grip.
However, it's better to adapt to the times. After all, in the long run, water can carry a boat, but it can also capsize it. The logical relationship of volume, inclusion, and being included is there, and formal logic cannot be reversed.
five,
Today, someone on Twitter wrote an article introducing how they built a company system using OpenClaw. They only have one employee, but they've added 12 AI employees, six deployed on Lark and six on Telegram. This company mainly focuses on self-media, legal, and consulting services.
The author says that when he saw these two groups of AI employees holding online meetings themselves, and when the green light came on for everyone to be online, he felt that times had truly changed. Human efficiency had undergone a dramatic transformation.
As I read this, the pent-up frustration of the past few days reached its peak:
Should I re-examine my life and work practices using first principles?
Over the past few years, it has been reviewed several times.
An unexamined life is not worth living.
But reviewing it repeatedly is really tiring.
What exactly is the underlying principle?
Underneath this article about 12 AI employees, many people questioned whether the results were truly effective. Did the number of subscribers increase? Did business increase? The author acknowledged the positive results but provided no data to support this claim, given that the operation was still in its early stages.
I predict that the explosive growth in content that has already begun will continue.
However, the explosion of content, or the various efficiency advantages that AI can currently achieve in areas such as programming, research and development, topology, and operations research, etc.
Ultimately, it's about serving people.
I explained the underlying principles in my previous article.
However, the principles of economics need to be reiterated again:
Production represents market wealth. Production precedes consumption. Producers produce based on their understanding of consumer needs; whether or not these needs are met, and to what extent, is a secondary concern.
Increased production leads to a more pronounced manifestation of consumer sovereignty. Ignoring value fluctuations caused by the production volume of currency and other mediums of exchange, increased production leads to lower prices and a more advanced market.
With increased production, the types and quantities of desires that can be satisfied also increase.
It's that simple.
Therefore, this matter is completely illogical, and no matter how you look at it, there is no logical conclusion that "the population should decrease".
Consumer sovereignty means consumers hold store-of-value currencies (such as gold and Bitcoin). AI boosts production, so consumers are enjoying a better life. It's not that because AI has arrived, total social production has increased, and people will starve.
What are the circumstances under which someone will starve to death?
The first type is short-term structural unemployment, where people are restricted from finding new jobs by something like a cutoff line (this happens in very few parts of the world, not on a large scale).
The second scenario is that what people hold is not valuable currency at all, but fiat, or legal tender, which is being issued at a rate far exceeding the productivity gains brought about by AI efficiency improvements.
Both of these questions are unfounded worries.
For the first scenario, with increased product variety, quantity, and service types, the number of jobs at each stage will correspondingly increase. More people will be needed to operate the AI. If, as the article suggests, the AI holds meetings and produces on its own, the boss can simply sit back and count the money. Then, with the accelerated deployment of countless AI systems, such production will significantly reduce end-user prices. For example, with the explosive growth in the number of WeChat public account articles—from 100 million a year to 10 billion now—how will the average revenue per article change?
A decline is inevitable. The number of consumers won't change too quickly in the short term. Therefore, the producer, an individual business owner, is only making a quick buck in a short period. This cannot be sustained in the long run. The average revenue per unit will inevitably be diluted.
High-quality content remains scarce. Readers who truly discover content they enjoy and find engaging will inevitably gravitate towards content with a human touch (whether written by an author or by AI that has mastered a "human" style; in short, it lacks the mass-produced feel of AI).
On the consumer side, with increased material wealth, service abundance, and a wider variety of spiritual products, the threshold for desire and pleasure rises. Simply put, the pleasure derived from watching videos decreases, while the pleasure from creative experiences increases. The aforementioned example of a one-person company employing 12 AI workers, leading to a surge in output, might actually cause consumers to stop consuming, as scarcity drives up prices. Consumer sovereignty guides the trajectory of temporary unemployment. Leisure time will naturally find its place. When the government excessively intervenes, establishing numerous approval systems and prohibiting the emergence of new industries (whether due to fire safety regulations or lack of industry registration), the smooth flow of new employment is disrupted. Economics (Austrian School) doesn't lie; it's a summary of objective laws. Human-induced distortions are the fundamental destructive force.
How powerful can the economic principle of consumer sovereignty be? Historically, all major leaps in productivity have been guided by consumer sovereignty, ultimately leading to new employment for the transitioning workforce and a surge in the availability of new material and service products. There are no entirely new and highly efficient productive tools that the market cannot absorb. The higher the efficiency, the more valuable the currency, and the better the lives of ordinary people.
The economic principle of consumer sovereignty, combined with tools to improve productivity, leads to either a significant drop in prices or the replacement of old models with entirely new ones for meeting demand.
If, after the wave of efficiency brought by AI sweeps through, the price of cars drops to an average of over 20,000 yuan, the price of housing to an average of 500 yuan per square meter, the cost of travel per kilometer decreases to 0.1 yuan, and the cost of children's education drops to 1,000 yuan per year—this is not a fantasy—this is a real historical truth. It's just history viewed from the future.
So, although ordinary people may experience temporary employment difficulties, in the long run, their lives will still be 100% better.
The exception of the "kill line" is undoubtedly caused by government regulation, and it simply doesn't exist in most countries. The solution is simple: remove the regulation.
The fact that the US government has the most extensive, complex, and inhumane regulations in the world may overturn the perception of most Chinese people.
On the producer side, there's a constant interaction and cycle with changing consumers. Production itself doesn't necessarily have great value (true value lies in being able to exchange it for gold or Bitcoin; exchanging it for fiat currency doesn't count). Producers must follow the consumer's lead. When consumers become aesthetically fatigued with both ordinary and AI-generated videos and are unwilling to watch them anymore, a transformation is necessary. For example, focusing on areas directly related to consumers' experiences, such as travel.
This brings us to at least one point: even when the prices of basic necessities like food, clothing, housing, and transportation drop significantly, people remain poor and still feel they don't have enough money because desires are insatiable. The tourism industry, because it involves tangible experiences, can continue to develop indefinitely. Just as people need intimate relationships, everything related to intimate relationships can continue to develop indefinitely. However, manufacturing a car may not be able to develop indefinitely; it could be replaced by an aircraft.
Therefore, if we assume that the emergence of AI will inevitably lead humanity into a situation like that described in science fiction novels such as Liu Cixin's "Supporting Humanity," where the gap between rich and poor is infinite, the Gini coefficient soars to over 99, and one person's wealth equals 99.99 times that of everyone else, and conclude that most of humanity will no longer have a reason to exist and that the population should be reduced, then we are actually going astray.
This concept of population reduction, or in other words, a population reduction plan, connects to the aforementioned extraterrestrials and the cult behind Epstein.
See? There are always treacherous officials trying to harm the people.
Whenever something good comes out, it's interpreted as something superfluous to ordinary people.
Aliens have arrived; ordinary people are superfluous and will be filtered out by the universe.
When the virus arrives, ordinary people are superfluous and will be naturally filtered out.
With the arrival of AI, ordinary people are superfluous and will be filtered out by market competition.
……
Why is it that cannibals are not superfluous?
It turns out that the "theory of ordinary people being superfluous" is the reason why there are cannibals who haven't been caught yet.
six,
Having written this far, I feel that this article will most likely not be published on the official WeChat account.
We can only pin our hopes on Zhihu.
Zhihu probably categorizes this content as "fictional".
Although this is entirely non-fiction.
eight,
For individuals, how should they cope with a world where "theories of ordinary people are superfluous" and various makeshift organizations are rampant?
Dalio recently published a lengthy article of over 10,000 words, discussing how "the old world order has collapsed." Below is an AI summary, written in italics (quick skimming is recommended; detailed reading is not necessary), followed by my own thoughts.
This lengthy article (often described in Chinese as a "ten-thousand-word article"), published by Ray Dalio around February 14, 2026, is titled something like "(It's Official: The World Order Has Broken Down)," or similarly. The original text was primarily posted on his X account (@RayDalio) and linked to or expanded upon the "Great Cycle" framework in his book, *Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order*. He cited the consensus of the 2026 Munich Security Conference, whose report, "Under Destruction," declared the end of the international order established after 1945.
This article is not a traditional, single "ten-thousand-word" webpage, but rather an in-depth analysis post/article by Dalio based on his research into historical cycles and combined with current events (such as the leaders' statements at the Munich Conference), which quickly garnered tens of millions of views. Its core message is that we have entered the sixth stage of the "Great Cycle": a chaotic period of no rules and where might makes right.
The following is a summary of the main points of the article in about 3,000 words (actually about 3,200 words, striving for detail but conciseness), presenting Dalio's logic, historical framework, current judgment, risk analysis and implications in a structured manner.
### I. Review of the Grand Cycle Framework: The Rise and Fall of World Order
Dalio's core theory stems from his study of the rise and fall of empires over the past 500 years. He summarizes the evolution of currency, domestic politics, and international order as a "Big Cycle" of approximately 80-100 years, divided into six phases:
1. The establishment of the new order (Stage 1): The victors of the war establish new rules, monetary systems and peace (such as the Bretton Woods system after 1945, the United Nations, and the dollar hegemony).
2. Stage 2: Effective rules, increased productivity, and growing wealth.
3. Stage 3: Excessive borrowing, financialization, and widening wealth gap.
4. Stage 4: Intensified internal conflict: polarization of wealth and values, rise of populism, political polarization, and disappearance of compromise.
5. Stage 5: Debt crisis, rising risk of internal revolution, and the rise of external challengers, but the old rules have not yet been completely broken (Dalio previously judged that the United States was already deeply in this stage).
6. Stage 6: The Great Chaos and Collapse of the Old Order: The rules become completely ineffective, and the "law of the jungle" (might is right) returns. Major powers vie for dominance through various forms of conflict (economic war, technology war, capital war, geopolitical war, and even hot war) until a new order is born from the destruction.
Dalio emphasizes that every empire/hegemon has its peak and decline, and if the decline is not handled properly, it often ends in a disastrous war or revolution. However, if productivity, fiscal discipline, and internal fairness are maintained during the period of strength, and win-win relationships are built with rivals, the cycle can be delayed or a soft landing can be achieved.
### II. Current Assessment: The world order officially died in 1945; we have entered the sixth stage.
The article’s most striking declaration is: **“It’s official”—the old order has collapsed** (rather than “is collapsing”).
The evidence primarily comes from the 2026 Munich Security Conference:
German Chancellor Merz: The world order that has lasted for decades no longer exists, freedom is no longer a given, and we have entered an era of power politics.
French President Macron: Europe's old security architecture has failed and must be rebuilt with a war preparedness mindset.
- U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio: The world has entered a "new geopolitical era," and the old world has disappeared.
- Conference report (Under Destruction): Describes the current situation as "wrecking-ball politics," where destruction rather than reform has become the mainstream.
Dalio believes this signifies a rare consensus among global leaders: the post-World War II US-led rules-based order—the credibility of the dollar, multilateral institutions, international law, and the global division of labor—has completely collapsed. It has been replaced by a primitive power struggle: whoever is strongest calls the shots, and international organizations are struggling to constrain top powers.
### III. Typical Characteristics and Manifestations of the Sixth Stage
Dalio warns that this phase is fraught with chaos and danger, typically intertwined with internal turmoil and external conflict. It manifests primarily in five forms of war, which often escalate progressively:
1. Trade/Economic War: Tariff barriers, import and export restrictions, and supply chain decoupling.
2. Technology war: technology blockade, export controls, national security red lines (such as chips, AI).
3. Capital Warfare: Financial sanctions, cutting off SWIFT, asset freezes, capital controls, and foreign exchange intervention.
4. Geopolitical warfare: territorial disputes, alliance restructuring, proxy conflicts, deterrence and negotiation.
5. Hot military war: If the first four categories get out of control, they may escalate into a real conflict with live ammunition, and all tools may be fully weaponized.
The logic behind this upgrade: When major powers are irreconcilable on "survival issues" (such as Taiwan and the South China Sea), the prisoner's dilemma, tit-for-tat, face/status costs, and emotional miscalculations can all easily lead to "foolish wars." Dalio specifically points out that the US and China face the highest structural risks on the Taiwan issue—relative decline of hegemony, rise of emerging powers, military convergence, and conflicting core interests.
At the same time, the internal order is also collapsing: debt explosion, wealth inequality, political polarization, populism, and declining fiat currency credibility are causing the "fifth stage" to spill over into the "sixth stage" domestically.
### IV. Economic and Investment Implications: Traditional Safe-Haven Methods Fail, Gold Becomes the Last Stand
Dalio's warning to investors is particularly poignant:
- Economic instruments will be weaponized: cash, bonds, and foreign exchange may be frozen or devalued, rendering the traditional logic of "safe-haven assets" ineffective.
- The fiat currency system is fragile: the risks of debt monetization, inflation, or capital controls are rising.
Gold is the most reliable store of wealth: it is a physical asset that is “not a liability to others” and has historically performed best during periods of social disorder (gold prices surged in similar periods such as the 1930s and 1940s).
- Recommendations: Clear out high-risk debts, reduce cash holdings, allocate to physical gold, withdraw funds from high-risk geopolitical areas (such as assets related to the Taiwan Strait), diversify residence/asset allocation, and rely on your own efforts (don't expect the government to protect private property forever).
He emphasized that we should not try to “repair” the old order, but rather adapt to the new logic—emerging forces such as AI and the productivity revolution may become the winners of the next cycle.
### V. Historical Lessons and Possible Paths to Avoid Disasters
Dalio reviews history: similar phases occurred in the 1930s (Great Depression + pre-World War II), the 1850s (pre-American Civil War), and the 1600s (pre-Thirty Years' War in Europe), etc. Each collapse of the old order brought enormous destruction, but also gave rise to a new order.
The key to avoiding the worst outcome:
- Powerful nations maintain productivity and fiscal discipline at their peak.
- Benefit the majority and reduce internal polarization.
- Build sustainable, win-win relationships with key adversaries, rather than zero-sum confrontations.
However, he believes that all the signs are now clear: high debt, internal divisions, and the rise of external challengers, indicating that the cycle is inevitably heading towards its sixth stage.
VI. Overall Lessons Learned: Facing the Jungle Era with a Clear Mind
Dalio's article is not a doomsday prophecy, but a calm diagnosis based on big data and historical patterns. He repeatedly emphasizes, "It's like watching a movie I've seen many times." Human history is full of cycles of rise and fall, but understanding these cycles allows us to better cope.
For ordinary people: Be soberly aware that the old rules are dead and don't harbor illusions; For decision-makers: Avoid emotional misjudgments and promote productivity rather than destructive confrontation; For investors: Embrace physical assets, diversify risks, and pay attention to emerging technology waves.
In short, this lengthy article marks Dalio's shift from "warning" to "formal confirmation": we have entered an era of great chaos, where might makes right will prevail until a new order is reborn from conflict. The world is no longer a "garden of rules," but an "arena of the jungle." (End of article)
My opinion:
1. I believe Ray Dalio can be positioned as follows: He is a member of a cabal that promotes a new world order, representing the economic right (ostensibly in propaganda) but fundamentally left. He advocates for gold and Bitcoin, opposes holding large amounts of easily depreciated fiat currency, promotes the correct principles and rules for personal success, and praises positive figures who embody self-discipline and hard work. However, he will never reveal the people and organizations behind it like I have. He is similar in positioning to Yuval Noah Harari, author of *Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind*, and Navarre, author of *The Navarre Book*—99% of what he says is correct. But the remaining 1% is achieved by telling people survival skills and secrets for the future, making them no longer question those erroneous directions (such as the organizations advocating the new world order and the evil ideologies behind them) and those wrong policies, but instead readily accepting them. This kind of person, infiltrating the people, is the largest and most deeply hidden spy.
2. The disorder of the old order is an objective fact. And indeed, as Dalio stated, it exhibits the characteristics described above. However, the solutions are not limited to exchanging fiat currency for gold; the following also apply:
First, promote correct concepts, Austrian School concepts, market concepts, the concept that logic and rationality are the foundation of life, the concept that human effort can make a difference, the concept that every wrong has its perpetrator and every debt its debtor, and the concept that evil may not fail but justice will not be silenced.
Secondly, a wise person avoids dangerous situations. When most organizations become alienated and their words and actions contradict each other, don't blindly follow or believe them with naive thinking. Read more articles and watch videos by lawyer Cai Yaqi. Don't put yourself in the shoes of a plaintiff. Don't blindly believe in the advertised fairness. Because being a plaintiff means you've been under a dangerous situation and already exposed the risks. Strength comes from adhering to internal principles. Besides the Datong rape case in 2025, the Hangzhou rape case in 2026 once again revealed the importance of this similar principle: when makeshift organizations create conflict to achieve population reduction goals, since people cannot avoid it, they should find alternative ways to circumvent it, rather than confronting it head-on. Since we know that the core of a stable marriage is affection, not economics, don't follow the misleading propaganda. Rationally insist that "the core of a stable marriage is affection, not economics," resolutely uphold your principles, and avoid being under a dangerous situation.
Third, minimalism. AI's role is to replicate, on a large scale, with high efficiency, the services and products already created by humans, rather than to reshape the interpretation of the human soul like a sentient being. Don't indulge in (and I believe, with increasing material abundance, more and more people will not indulge in) increasingly cheap material possessions. Don't be like a child in the 1990s who dreamed of having a wardrobe with 1000 clothes, and is still practicing having a wardrobe with 1000 clothes in the 1920s. Humans cannot remain children forever; that's self-degradation. Just like watching 16 hours of short videos every day for 300 consecutive days, a normal person would inevitably feel nauseous and return to the right path. Minimalism allows attention to be refocused. With attention, people know what they should be doing, and they become human again, not slaves to consumerism. With minimalism, people reconsider what money and value are, and what long-termism is. When a person is blinded by the allure of worldly life and develops wicked thoughts such as "I want to love myself, I want to eat a different breakfast every day for 30,000 days in my life, 30,000 different kinds, and I want to wear different clothes every week for 4,000 weeks in my life, 4,000 different outfits," that person has already lost most of their personality and the ability to discern value.
Fourth, the right path is creation. This is a fundamental human desire on par with drinking water, eating, and procreation. It is precisely for this reason that I am optimistic about humanity's long-term trajectory and development. The ability to correct mistakes stems from this.
Creation includes not only invention and creation, but also improving efficiency, sharing experiences, and accumulating wealth. Yes, you read that right, accumulating wealth.
Every instance of hoarding gold or Bitcoin is an act of accumulating wealth, a practice that allows truly valuable assets to shine through, and exposes the true nature of consumerism, debt-drivenism, welfareism, environmentalism, progressivism, and regulatoryism. If the world consisted of only one country, Zimbabwe, then those who constantly urge everyone to hoard Zimbabwean dollars are anti-creative and misguided. Two ready examples illustrate this: El Salvador (hoarding Bitcoin) and Argentina (stopping the issuance of fiat currency).
Every person who practices value investing is practicing wealth accumulation. Just like Warren Buffett, who at 85 years old was still able to admit his mistakes and decisively abandon the "excellent tradition" of not buying tech stocks, he bought a large amount of Apple stock, creating $120 billion in profits for himself, his partners, and shareholders.
Practice is creation.
In fact, this is what an individual can most easily do, and what they should most do. Because all they need to do is adhere to principles, think clearly about the underlying value principles, and repeat the somewhat rigid, mechanical actions, and they will gradually escape the swamp of being manipulated and stolen from.
Ultimately, people cannot escape the pattern of choosing their final way of life at every moment.
Therefore, most people inevitably live in a short-term pleasure-seeking mode. This is perfectly understandable.
This is perfectly justifiable.
However, it is not recommended.