$65,000 USD – The "death zone" of Bitcoin: Breaking the 10-year cost support, risk of entering a Deep Bear?
On February 23, analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin is trading around $65,000, nearing the 10y Realized Price (10y_RP) – a measure of the average historical cost of the BTC supply over 10 years, excluding most coins that have been lost. This index is considered a long-term "real value" level and often plays a critical support role in the cycle.
Historical on-chain data shows that whenever BTC holds above long-term realized price levels, the market tends to maintain a bullish or accumulation structure. Conversely, decisive breaks below the cycle cost zone – like in 2018 or late 2022 – have led to prolonged deep bear markets.
Currently, pressure is coming from multiple fronts: Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. are experiencing weakened capital flows, Coinbase Premium has been negative for several weeks, and institutional sentiment shows signs of caution. This makes the $65,000 level not only a technical support but also a psychological boundary for large capital flows.
The market is entering a sensitive phase of the cycle. If BTC can maintain the 10-year cost level, this could be an accumulation zone of "value" for long-term capital. However, if it breaks with high volume, the risk is not just short-term price decline but a shift in cycle expectations.
In the context that Bitcoin has become a macro asset worth trillions of USD, losing the long-term cost zone often triggers a defensive response from institutions and ETFs. And when large capital shifts to a capital preservation state, the market may enter a much deeper correction phase than what individual investors are expecting.
$BTC
On February 23, analyst Murphy stated that Bitcoin is trading around $65,000, nearing the 10y Realized Price (10y_RP) – a measure of the average historical cost of the BTC supply over 10 years, excluding most coins that have been lost. This index is considered a long-term "real value" level and often plays a critical support role in the cycle.
Historical on-chain data shows that whenever BTC holds above long-term realized price levels, the market tends to maintain a bullish or accumulation structure. Conversely, decisive breaks below the cycle cost zone – like in 2018 or late 2022 – have led to prolonged deep bear markets.
Currently, pressure is coming from multiple fronts: Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. are experiencing weakened capital flows, Coinbase Premium has been negative for several weeks, and institutional sentiment shows signs of caution. This makes the $65,000 level not only a technical support but also a psychological boundary for large capital flows.
The market is entering a sensitive phase of the cycle. If BTC can maintain the 10-year cost level, this could be an accumulation zone of "value" for long-term capital. However, if it breaks with high volume, the risk is not just short-term price decline but a shift in cycle expectations.
In the context that Bitcoin has become a macro asset worth trillions of USD, losing the long-term cost zone often triggers a defensive response from institutions and ETFs. And when large capital shifts to a capital preservation state, the market may enter a much deeper correction phase than what individual investors are expecting.
$BTC