one
Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin bear market is rebounding, but it can't get past 74500. This was the low point during the brief pullback in the bull market around Trump's tariff war on April 7, 2025. Today, it has become a resistance level in the bear market.
The weekly K-line has a gap formed during the decline: around 80663 to 79400.
In addition, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands is temporarily around 82000.
These are all potential high points worth paying attention to.
A friend said today that the trend is upward. We can't always be pessimistic about Bitcoin and keep seeing bears; there's no need to be so stubbornly bearish.
I said:
This is like when I stubbornly believed the bull market wasn't over when it dropped to around 75000 at the end of the first quarter of 2025.
In March and April 2026, if there is a rebound, I will still stubbornly believe that the bear market has not ended.
Two
Gold.
Some friends believe that we should analyze gold more.
I reviewed articles from the past few months, and some days mentioned gold:
Recent dates include: January 26, January 28, January 30, March 3, March 4, March 13.
Those concerned about the trend of gold can take a look.
If we do not consider the upward breakthrough of 5100 caused by the war.
It should be considered relatively accurate.
Gold has dropped sharply in the last two days, after all, it is a historical peak at the weekly level.
RSI is so overbought, it is abnormal not to correct.
A repair time of 4-8 months is normal.
Those who want to buy gold are best to hold back, or increase the frequency of DCA and extend the time.
I think it should drop by 30% or 35%, which is a way of trying to find a sword in a boat regarding the significant rise and fall of gold in the 21st century.
I said this on January 30.
After the impact of the war decreases, gold has indeed continued to decline.
After all, such a big event as the war between the US and Israel has not even broken the high point of 5600 on January 28.
Three
Real estate.
Yesterday I mentioned the example of buying 8 old and dilapidated homes in Chengdu.
Friends on WeChat and Zhihu have left messages saying they are not optimistic about the rental model for residential properties. Some say it's not as good as shops, after all, renting to individuals requires attention to maintenance and other issues, which can be troublesome. Some say that breaking even in 13 years is idealistic, and future prices will continue to decline.
I believe these comments are very correct. These factors all need to be considered.
However, my comparison of the rental return speed of communities in Chengdu and Rizhao mainly provides a calculation idea.
In fact, many investment targets can be approached with this kind of thinking.
That's an estimate of future cash flow.
This is also one of the cores of value investing.
A rough and reasonable estimate is very meaningful.
For rental properties, whether shops, apartments, or residences, whether old and dilapidated or high-end, whether fully packaged rental models or personally dealing with tenants, it ultimately comes down to cash flow calculations. This calculation includes a rough measurement of costs.
My comparison is to say that Rizhao, as a fourth or fifth-tier city, has a significant gap compared to first-tier cities. Non-core districts and counties in first and second-tier cities should not overestimate themselves.
Go calculate it yourself, and you'll know how much bubble there is in housing prices and how much risk there is in buying a house.
The statistical department released housing price data for 70 large and medium-sized cities today. Among them, four cities saw a slight increase month-on-month. Compared to the same period last year, all of them saw significant declines, most dropping more than 5%.
The future population decline will be very rapid; whether there will be significant fluctuations depends on the direction of women's rights issues.
Real estate is an ordinary commodity. To predict prices, one still needs to look at the supply and demand relationship.
Speaking of this, we can take a look at the price of pork, around 7 yuan, which has reached a new low in recent years.
Despite the excessive issuance of currency, supply and demand are still the biggest reasons for price formation.
How will the supply and demand for housing change?
Will there be a significant reduction in old houses in the future?
Is it forcing ordinary people to participate in this demolition effort?
Everyone has demystified real estate and no longer sees it as a financial investment target, while the rebound of the population is still a long way off (due to women's rights issues). Referring to Japan and South Korea, when will real estate be able to rebound?
That's like Japan, saying to wait 20 years after a drop.
Is it 2040?
Four
About Iran and the United States.
Trump's approval rating has fallen to a historic low during his term.
In fact, Trump started to relax his persona shaping during this term.
In the previous round, people really thought he was a conservative leader, a representative of libertarianism. Except for yimiao, support for sa and tai people, and tariff issues, he was impeccable.
However, this term is different; he continues to engage in pointless tariff wars, hasn't reduced government spending, continues to carry out government debt strategies, and starts to more openly support the deep state. The way of participating in the war is also inadequate. There is still a lack of transparency regarding information.
The United States really needs a libertarian leader to continue developing.
Cat Pen Knife said that if the Strait of Hormuz is permanently blocked, how long will it take for the world to adapt? AI responded that 30%–40% will be replaced in 3 months, 60%–70% in 18 months, 85%–90% will be replaced within 3 years, and 100% will be replaced in 5 years.
I think it can't be calculated like this.
In fact, it is instantaneous replacement.
In economics, the market's response is instantaneous or real-time, just like there is no suffering that humans cannot endure; there is no oil supply issue that humans cannot adapt to.
Whether it's the fluctuation of prices or the patience of demand, they are all part of the economic activities and fluctuations of this planet.
This is the norm of the Earth.
For individuals, life will continue.
No one will starve to death in a few days due to the oil issue.
As long as one doesn't starve to death, it's not a big problem.
Life and death are the only big issues.
The scale of this oil issue is actually similar to a certain enterprise suddenly having its production line break down for three weeks.
It's actually similar to how I was forced to rest for two weeks due to bronchitis in January.
The United States, Iran, and Israel are still continuing to stir things up.
Many people are still struggling in this war, such as most people in Iran, and soldiers from the United States and Israel.
But for most people, this war is no longer a hot topic.
The correct model that conforms to liberalism, in my opinion, is:
Everyone has the freedom to migrate, the freedom to escape forced conscription, and the freedom to keep the country closed.
For example, Israeli soldiers have the right not to participate in the war, have the right to leave, and Iranian residents also have the right to leave freely and migrate freely.
Perhaps the freedom I speak of is something they all possess; some people in this chess game truly want to participate, while others think they can't escape.
Indeed, as long as one is not locked in by chains or high walls, where is the saying that one cannot escape?
It's still a cognitive issue.
Does the wall of cognition count as a high wall?
May everyone in the world recognize that they are free.
Five
Refrigerators and kindergartens.
Speaking of this, a friend told me today that their family no longer has a refrigerator. Not only is the home cleaner, but they also buy as much as they eat at the supermarket, making their meals fresher.
This has achieved 'minimalist freedom of refrigeration,' which is a breakthrough in cognition.
Yesterday I also mentioned that the child was forced to go to kindergarten.
What if the family members don't want to go?
Who educates at home? It affects my sister's rest...
A bunch of reasons and statements.
It's like 'there must be a refrigerator at home'; otherwise, how can one live?
In fact, it is not necessary to have a refrigerator at home.
Many self-imposed life patterns are completely unnecessary.
Life could be simplified, but one insists that it cannot be simplified.
Such people should really be sent back 10,000 years to learn from the ancients about how to live a minimalist life.