Frenzied demand for Russian oil exceeded all expectations
The Middle East conflict, which is creating serious problems for the global economy, has turned into unexpected windfall profits for Russia.
Geographical location and unique logistics have made Russia the main beneficiary of the situation. The United States, facing a shortage, temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil for all countries — a step that until recently seemed impossible.
🇮🇳 India returns:
India, which had halved its purchases under pressure from a trade deal with Washington, began shipping Russian oil again even before official permission. Volumes previously accumulated in tankers were waiting for their moment: in January-February, prices fell to $41–45 per barrel, making sales unprofitable. The bet on growth paid off — now Urals has doubled in price to $90 per barrel, and India is ready to buy at any price.
🇨🇳China increases:
China never intended to give up Russian fuel, and has now sharply increased imports. In the first week of March, purchases grew by 2.1 million barrels — from 10.3 to 12.4 million. And this is not the limit.
🇹🇭🇯🇵 Asia lines up:
Offers poured in from all affected importers: Thailand, Sri Lanka, even Japan, which received 90% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Reserve stocks are running out, and countries are grasping at any opportunity.
💰 Prices and discount:
In February, the average price of Urals was $45 per barrel. Now it is surging towards $90. Even if the monthly average settles at $75, that's plus $30 from February. The discount to Brent, which reached a record $30 due to November sanctions, has halved, and on March 16 it was only $11–12. And it will continue to decrease — demand guarantees it.
🇷🇺 How much will Russia earn?
Experts calculated: a $10 price increase gives $2.2 billion in additional monthly income with exports of 7 million barrels per day. A $30 increase — $6.6 billion.
But taxes are levied on all production. Russia produces 9.3 million barrels per day (288 million per month). This adds $8.6 billion to industry revenue. About 60% goes to the budget — $5.2 billion per month (421 billion rubles), which exceeds all oil and gas revenues in January (393 billion).
If the price holds at $75 for a couple of months, the industry will get $17.2 billion in windfall profits, the budget — $10.3 billion. In six months — $51.6 billion and $31 billion respectively.
Increasing production is technologically difficult, but the annual plan is plus 1.3 million barrels per day. This would add another $1.2 billion. In the first two months, oil and gas revenues slumped, and the budget deficit became a problem. The Middle East conflict turned out to be a convenient way to solve it.
#politics
❤️From Russia with love
