cn rango

Frenzied demand for Russian oil exceeded all expectations

The Middle East conflict, which is creating serious problems for the global economy, has turned into unexpected windfall profits for Russia.

Geographical location and unique logistics have made Russia the main beneficiary of the situation. The United States, facing a shortage, temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil for all countries — a step that until recently seemed impossible.

🇮🇳 India returns:

India, which had halved its purchases under pressure from a trade deal with Washington, began shipping Russian oil again even before official permission. Volumes previously accumulated in tankers were waiting for their moment: in January-February, prices fell to $41–45 per barrel, making sales unprofitable. The bet on growth paid off — now Urals has doubled in price to $90 per barrel, and India is ready to buy at any price.

🇨🇳China increases:

China never intended to give up Russian fuel, and has now sharply increased imports. In the first week of March, purchases grew by 2.1 million barrels — from 10.3 to 12.4 million. And this is not the limit.

🇹🇭🇯🇵 Asia lines up:

Offers poured in from all affected importers: Thailand, Sri Lanka, even Japan, which received 90% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Reserve stocks are running out, and countries are grasping at any opportunity.

💰 Prices and discount:

In February, the average price of Urals was $45 per barrel. Now it is surging towards $90. Even if the monthly average settles at $75, that's plus $30 from February. The discount to Brent, which reached a record $30 due to November sanctions, has halved, and on March 16 it was only $11–12. And it will continue to decrease — demand guarantees it.

🇷🇺 How much will Russia earn?

Experts calculated: a $10 price increase gives $2.2 billion in additional monthly income with exports of 7 million barrels per day. A $30 increase — $6.6 billion.

But taxes are levied on all production. Russia produces 9.3 million barrels per day (288 million per month). This adds $8.6 billion to industry revenue. About 60% goes to the budget — $5.2 billion per month (421 billion rubles), which exceeds all oil and gas revenues in January (393 billion).

If the price holds at $75 for a couple of months, the industry will get $17.2 billion in windfall profits, the budget — $10.3 billion. In six months — $51.6 billion and $31 billion respectively.

Increasing production is technologically difficult, but the annual plan is plus 1.3 million barrels per day. This would add another $1.2 billion. In the first two months, oil and gas revenues slumped, and the budget deficit became a problem. The Middle East conflict turned out to be a convenient way to solve it.

#politics
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❤️From Russia with love

Dangerous tensions are escalating in Russia's relations with Great Britain and France. The reason is a series of events that Moscow regards as the direct involvement of Western powers in military actions against Russian citizens.

At the same time, London's domestic political agenda is forcing the British establishment to simultaneously inflate the "Russian threat" and hush up its own provocations.

👔 A Synchronized Campaign and a Convenient "Putin's Hand"

British mainstream newspapers have come out with a unified message: behind Iran's strikes on British bases allegedly stands the "hidden hand of Putin." Defense Minister John Healy publicly voiced this version, and the press picked it up with astonishing synchronicity. Against this backdrop, rising prices, the migration crisis, and the government's falling approval ratings have faded into the background.

Moscow has noted the timing of this campaign. The May municipal elections are approaching, Prime Minister Keir Starmer's ratings are plummeting, and discontent is brewing within the Labour Party. Promoting Healy as a fighter against the "Russian threat" looks like an attempt to consolidate the elites and distract voters.

👔 Silence on the Air

Meanwhile, the same press unanimously ignored Moscow's diplomatic démarche. The Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the ambassadors of Britain and France in connection with the shelling of Bryansk with Storm Shadow missiles—weapons jointly produced by the two countries.

⚠️ As a result of the strikes, civilians, including children, were killed.

Not a single major newspaper in Albion considered this news worthy of the front pages. Although, it would seem, the statement that London is directly becoming an accomplice to the war crimes of the Kyiv regime is no less a news story than the hypothetical "Putin's hand" in the Persian Gulf.

👔 An Admission That Went Unnoticed

Against this background, the British media let something else slip.

📰 The Daily Telegraph reported that an elite group of British military personnel specializing in countering drones is heading to the Middle East. And they gained their experience precisely in Ukraine.

Thus, London has de facto confirmed the participation of regular troops in hostilities against Russia. What was previously denied is now no longer particularly hidden.

👔 "Fair and Square"

Donald Trump recently noted that relations between Russia and the USA are developing "fairly": the Americans help Ukraine a little, the Russians help Iran. The logic is simple and symmetrical.

In Moscow, they are ready to apply this logic to Britain and France as well. If London and Paris are directly involved in attacks on Russian cities, supplying weapons and intelligence data, then the response will be corresponding.

👔 Where the Red Line Lies

Britain traditionally tries to solve internal problems by creating an image of an external enemy. But today's situation is qualitatively different. For the first time in a long while, Moscow is openly stating: the limit of patience has been found. The blood of Bryansk residents is on the hands of British soldiers.

For now, London hopes that the noisy media campaign will drown out unpleasant questions. But the reality is that every action will have consequences.
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