The Federal Reserve stands still, and Powell's words "inflation is stubborn" knock Bitcoin down to 74K
Yesterday the FOMC meeting concluded, the Federal Reserve did not change interest rates, maintaining the range of 3.5%—3.75%, with the dot plot suggesting only one cut this year and another next year.
Powell's exact words were: "Inflation is progressing slower than expected." The 2026 PCE forecast was raised from 2.4% to 2.7%. On the oil side, the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent crude above 119 dollars, and energy costs are directly feeding into the inflation model.
The market reaction was quite direct: U.S. stocks fell, Bitcoin retraced from a high of 74,800 to around 71,000, down 4% in 24 hours.
Interestingly, Two Prime has recorded that in the past 8 FOMC meetings, BTC recorded negative returns within 48 hours on 7 occasions—this is not a black swan, but a classic script of "positive news fully priced in."
What’s more worth watching is the ETF fund flow. Farside data shows that from March 19-20, Bitcoin ETF saw continuous net inflows. Institutions didn't run away, but rather bought in during the decline.
Powell also denied the analogy of "stagflation," saying most FOMC members do not consider interest rate hikes to be the baseline scenario. But the market has understood: don’t expect easing until inflation clearly improves.
Currently, BTC is fluctuating in the range of 71,000-74,000, and QCP's report is very straightforward—there's no panic in the options market, but risk reversals continue to lean towards puts, indicating that bulls are buying protection, not going fully long.
At this position, you either wait for policy signals or for geopolitical results.
$BTC
#美联储3月议息会议 #SEC澄清加密资产分类 #美国2月PPI超预期 #比特币突破7.5万美元 #英伟达GTC大会
Yesterday the FOMC meeting concluded, the Federal Reserve did not change interest rates, maintaining the range of 3.5%—3.75%, with the dot plot suggesting only one cut this year and another next year.
Powell's exact words were: "Inflation is progressing slower than expected." The 2026 PCE forecast was raised from 2.4% to 2.7%. On the oil side, the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz drove Brent crude above 119 dollars, and energy costs are directly feeding into the inflation model.
The market reaction was quite direct: U.S. stocks fell, Bitcoin retraced from a high of 74,800 to around 71,000, down 4% in 24 hours.
Interestingly, Two Prime has recorded that in the past 8 FOMC meetings, BTC recorded negative returns within 48 hours on 7 occasions—this is not a black swan, but a classic script of "positive news fully priced in."
What’s more worth watching is the ETF fund flow. Farside data shows that from March 19-20, Bitcoin ETF saw continuous net inflows. Institutions didn't run away, but rather bought in during the decline.
Powell also denied the analogy of "stagflation," saying most FOMC members do not consider interest rate hikes to be the baseline scenario. But the market has understood: don’t expect easing until inflation clearly improves.
Currently, BTC is fluctuating in the range of 71,000-74,000, and QCP's report is very straightforward—there's no panic in the options market, but risk reversals continue to lean towards puts, indicating that bulls are buying protection, not going fully long.
At this position, you either wait for policy signals or for geopolitical results.
$BTC
#美联储3月议息会议 #SEC澄清加密资产分类 #美国2月PPI超预期 #比特币突破7.5万美元 #英伟达GTC大会