This chart strips out basis trade from ETF flows to isolate

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This chart strips out basis trade from ETF flows to isolate real directional demand.

Even after removing $10.3B of carry trade, the power-law slope stays at 0.27:

10x more directional ETF demand still maps to about 1.9x higher BTC price.

Current $BTC : $67.5K
Basis-adjusted model: $94.8K
BTC is ~28.8% below trend.

Bluechip

$BTC ’s Real ETF Demand Was Stronger Than Gross Flows Implied

$43.9B gross ETF flows
$10.3B basis trade
$33.6B directional flow
23% of ETF flow was non-directional.

Raw flows:
$1B → 4.1% BTC move

Directional flows:
$1B → 5.4% BTC move

So gross flows overstated demand size and understated demand strength.

In the Nov 2025-Feb 2026 drawdown:
$9.6B raw outflows
$4.7B basis unwind
$4.9B directional outflows

49% of outflows were carry trade exits.

Not all ETF flow is real directional demand.

BTC price

Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No advice. Binance AI may be used without guarantee. See T&Cs.

BTC-0.14%