The Q1 of 2026 is over.
Bitcoin: -24%. Worst first quarter since 2018.
S&P 500: -4.4%. Worst quarter since 2022.
Nasdaq: official correction. More than 10% below the peak.
WTI: +82%. Best quarter for oil in years.
VIX: +65% for the year. Fear structurally high.
The easy diagnosis: stagflation has arrived, crypto is dead, risk-off forever.
The correct diagnosis is more complicated.
The Fed kept rates at 3.5%-3.75%. But the dot plot signals a cut. Powell said he will "look through" supply inflation. Miran wants to cut 100 bps.
The market prices in tightening. The Fed signals easing.
This disconnection is the most important data point of April.
And in crypto, a number that no one is putting in context:
US$316 billion in parked stablecoins. Historical record.
The money hasn't left the ecosystem. It left risk. It's sitting. Waiting.
Meanwhile, Binance Research showed that since the ETFs, Bitcoin has changed nature: it stopped following the monetary cycle with a 9-month lag and started to anticipate it.
Q1 was brutal.
But the worst quarters are usually followed by the best.
Not always. But often enough to pay attention.
Are you looking in the rearview mirror or out the front window?
$BTC
$ETH
Bitcoin: -24%. Worst first quarter since 2018.
S&P 500: -4.4%. Worst quarter since 2022.
Nasdaq: official correction. More than 10% below the peak.
WTI: +82%. Best quarter for oil in years.
VIX: +65% for the year. Fear structurally high.
The easy diagnosis: stagflation has arrived, crypto is dead, risk-off forever.
The correct diagnosis is more complicated.
The Fed kept rates at 3.5%-3.75%. But the dot plot signals a cut. Powell said he will "look through" supply inflation. Miran wants to cut 100 bps.
The market prices in tightening. The Fed signals easing.
This disconnection is the most important data point of April.
And in crypto, a number that no one is putting in context:
US$316 billion in parked stablecoins. Historical record.
The money hasn't left the ecosystem. It left risk. It's sitting. Waiting.
Meanwhile, Binance Research showed that since the ETFs, Bitcoin has changed nature: it stopped following the monetary cycle with a 9-month lag and started to anticipate it.
Q1 was brutal.
But the worst quarters are usually followed by the best.
Not always. But often enough to pay attention.
Are you looking in the rearview mirror or out the front window?
$BTC
$ETH