The current situation remains difficult to interpret, which is generally not a good sign for markets.

Uncertainty, both geopolitical and economic, is pushing a large share of investors to remain cautious.

However, this observation does not seem to apply to the most speculative participants.

At the moment, we can see that derivatives markets on Ethereum remain highly active.

Open interest now stands at 6.4 million ETH, a level not far from the previous all-time high of 7.8 million ETH reached in July 2025.

After falling to 5 million ETH in October, open interest has gradually recovered.

A significant share of this activity comes from Binance, which alone accounts for 2.3 million ETH in open interest, representing roughly 36% dominance in the ETH derivatives market.

Another striking element is the dominance of futures markets over the spot market.

The spot-to-futures volume ratio on Binance has now dropped to 0.13, the lowest annual level ever recorded for ETH.

In practical terms, this means that futures volumes are now about seven times larger than spot volumes.

In other words, for every $1 traded on the spot market, roughly $7 flows through futures contracts.

This dynamic suggests that speculation is currently driving price movements on Ethereum.

The extensive use of leverage does not provide a strong structural foundation and can amplify volatility through position adjustments or liquidation events.

Written by Darkfost