CryptoQuant Quicktake

Despite movements that may have distorted the MVRV, such as large UTXO consolidations including more than 800000 BTC by Coinbase, I still find it interesting to analyze the signal it is sending today.

This chart is not simply showing the raw MVRV, which compares Bitcoin’s market cap, calculated as price multiplied by supply, with its realized value, which reflects the realized price in the market, meaning the price of each BTC when it last moved.

-💡Instead, this approach identifies where the current MVRV stands relative to its evolution within the present cycle. In other words, it does not rely only on the MVRV itself, a metric that is affected by Bitcoin’s structural evolution and its cycles.

It adds a probabilistic dimension and, more importantly, places the MVRV back into the current market context, which makes it meaningful again. -

Today, the MVRV sits in the 0 to 10 % percentile.

That means we are reaching an extremely low level for this cycle, to the point that the MVRV has been higher than this value more than 90% of the time during the cycle.

This is a strong signal that the market has gone through an extreme period of stress and that the current zone is clearly attractive for those looking to position themselves intelligently.

Historically, these areas have consistently preceded bullish recoveries.

On the other hand, when the MVRV reaches the 90% zone, Bitcoin tends to enter an overheated phase. These periods have always been followed by corrections.

These patterns repeat throughout the lifecycle of an asset like Bitcoin.

One day everyone wants it, the next day no one does.

If you want to outperform, follow the data rather than the crowd.

Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin’s latest price surge has raised speculation about a possible bottom or trend reversal. However, the key question is not the size of the move, but whether it reflects a structural shift in demand.

In Bitcoin markets, a “bounce” typically refers to a temporary rebound within a broader downtrend. Such moves are often driven by short-covering, position adjustments, and sentiment reversals, rather than fresh spot demand. They tend to occur after periods of heightened fear, when selling pressure briefly eases.

The on-chain indicator SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) provides important context. SOPR shows whether coins moved on-chain are being sold at a profit or a loss. When SOPR falls below 1, it indicates that market participants are selling at a loss, prioritizing risk reduction over profitability.

Historically, SOPR remaining below 1 has not marked market bottoms. Instead, it has appeared during early to mid bear-market phases, often alongside rebounds that fail to sustain. True bottoms have formed only after prolonged SOPR weakness, repeated failed recoveries above 1, and broad loss realization.

Current data fits this pattern. While price has rebounded, SOPR has yet to recover and hold above 1, and evidence of sustained spot-driven inflows remains limited. As such, today’s move is better viewed as a reflexive bounce within an adjustment phase, not confirmation of a durable uptrend.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Bitcoin is currently facing intense selling pressure, with the price dropping to the $64.6K region. A critical look at the market sentiment on Binance reveals a disturbing trend in the derivatives market. The Taker Buy Ratio (14-day Moving Average) has dropped to 0.48, marking its lowest level since October 2025.

The Taker Buy Ratio is a key indicator of market sentiment; values below 1 indicate that taker sell volumes (aggressive selling) are outpacing taker buy volumes. A drop to such a significant low suggests that sellers are overwhelmingly dominating the order book, aggressively hitting bids without sufficient buying resistance.

This capitulation in the ratio correlates with the sharp price correction observed recently. For a potential reversal or a local bottom, we need to see this metric stabilize and begin to trend upwards, indicating that aggressive selling is exhausted and buyers are stepping back in. Until then, caution is advised as the momentum remains heavily in favor of the bears.

Written by CryptoOnchain

After breaking the support line of the downtrend channel and testing the critical $60K region, Bitcoin is preparing for a decisive test at this Sunday's weekly close, 02/08/2026. A close within the channel's boundaries would strengthen the chances of a technical recovery. From a more optimistic perspective, a definitive break of the channel's resistance would validate a trend change, while a close below the channel's support reinforces the ongoing capitulation sentiment. The rally ignited on Thursday night, with a 17% gain, partially reversed the intense wave of selling that caused Bitcoin to suffer a 50% correction since its ATH in October. Bitcoin is now trading near its critical resistance level of $70K.

Written by GugaOnChain

📰 Daily Market Update:

Recent on-chain and institutional flow data is starting to paint a more cautious picture for Bitcoin price action.

📊 [Bitcoin ETF] Daily Netflow Trend

The chart tracks the daily net value (USD) of Bitcoin flows into spot BTC ETFs.

📈 Positive netflows → actual BTC buying → bullish price pressure

📉 Negative netflows → BTC selling → bearish pressure

🔬 Key Observation

📉 The chart highlights a second major negative outflow in February from BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.

📅 On February 5, IBIT recorded a massive net outflow exceeding $7.7 billion, the largest in this period.

📉 The first negative outflow occurred on February 2, with more than $4.7 billion leaving the fund.

📉 In second place, Grayscale (GBTC) also recorded a negative outflow of over $2.1 billion.

📊 BTC: UTXO Exchange Inflow SMA 7d

The chart breaks down Bitcoin inflows to exchanges based on wallet size categories, offering insight into which group is preparing to sell.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 A sharp spike in the light blue area representing Dolphin / Shark wallets.

📈 On February 5, inflows surged to 20,800 BTC.

📅 In our previous update, we already noted that February 4 saw inflows spike to 14,900 BTC.

📅 This is the first time inflows exceeded 20,800 BTC since October, when BTC was trading above $122,000.

📊 [Binance] Multi-Asset Netflow - $Value

The chart shows the net USD value flows of BTC, ETH, USDT, and USDC moving in and out of Binance, the biggest spot exchange by trading volume.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 On February 5, Bitcoin net inflows on Binance jumped to $727M.

📅 We have not seen similar BTC inflow levels since mid-November.

📉 At the same time, USDT recorded consecutive negative netflows, with the latest outflow reaching approximately –$450M.

🧠 Final Conclusion

⏲️ Historically, positive BTC alongside negative stablecoin flows are often interpreted as risk-off behavior, where market participants reduce crypto exposure.

Written by Amr Taha

The Daily Realized P/L Ratio just dropped into the "Low" zone with Panic Selling markers active. This isn't just "price went down" — this is the market's economic fingerprint showing forced capitulation.

📊 What This Measures

The P/L Ratio captures economic behavior price alone cannot: when coins move on-chain, are holders realizing profit or loss? Low readings mean loss-realizers dominate — margin calls, forced liquidations, emotional exits.

The Panic Selling layer confirms velocity: not gradual selling, but sudden forced exits matching historical capitulation patterns.

The distinction matters: organic selling can persist. Forced selling exhausts itself.

🔍 Historical Precedent

This exact setup — P/L Ratio Low + Panic Selling active — has occurred 4 times since 2016:

→ Dec 2018 ($3,200): 12-month outcome +340%

→ Mar 2020 ($5,000): 12-month outcome +1,100%

→ Jun 2022 ($22,000): NOT final bottom — fell 30% more before recovery

→ Nov 2022 ($16,000): 12-month outcome +170%

Three of four marked actionable bottoms within weeks. One marked the beginning of capitulation, not the end.

📈 The Pattern

When realized losses overwhelm profits and panic selling accelerates, we're witnessing forced capitulation — a condition that historically exhausts itself rather than persists.

⏳ What This Doesn't Guarantee

Precise timing (signal can lead bottom by 0-16 weeks), magnitude of further downside, or duration. This measures exhaustion of sellers, not absence of risk.

Current setup suggests forced selling is occurring. History suggests forced selling exhausts itself.

Written by RugaResearch

The Realized Price by Balance Cohorts metric reveals a clean breach across all major holder groups, with the 100k+ ETH cohort's realized price (~$2,074) acting as the most notable victim of this sell-off.

The current price of $1,823 now sits below the cost basis of every significant cohort tracked.

This is particularly striking for the largest holders (100k+ ETH), whose realized price has historically served dual roles: acting as formidable resistance during downtrends and reliable support during recoveries, as evidenced in early 2019, mid-2020, and late 2022.

When ETH decisively breaks through the whale cohort's realized price, two paths typically emerge rapidly: either a violent snap-back rally as the level flips to support (2020, 2022), or further capitulation into multi-year lows (2018-2019).

The middle ground rarely persists.

What makes this moment particularly noteworthy is the clean penetration across all cohorts simultaneously. The smaller holders (1k-10k, 100-1k, 10k-100k ETH) are all showing realized prices between $2,534-$2,675, creating a significant overhead resistance zone should price attempt recovery.

Risk Considerations:

- Critical levels: Watch whether $2,074 (100k+ cohort RP) can flip back to support in the coming weeks. A reclaim would mirror historical recovery patterns. Failure to recapture this level within 30-45 days historically precedes extended drawdowns.

- Downside scenario: A sustained break below $1,800 with no immediate reclaim of whale RP opens the door to $1,600-$1,300

The market is dominated by fear, but these inflection points separate reactive traders from strategic investors. History doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes.

Written by MorenoDV_

Following a sharp correction that drained $6.05 billion (approximately 88,000 BTC) from the market in a single day, Bitcoin is showing a slight recovery, trading around $66.3K. The critical $60K support level withstood the pressure, but the current scenario points to a deeper structural correction fueled by sector deleveraging, institutional capital risk-off, and negative correlation with U.S. tech stocks.

THIS PRESSURE IS REFLECTED IN BROADER NUMBERS:

◾ Recent BTC Performance → Weekly: BTC -15%. Year-to-date: BTC -26%.

◾ Monthly Loss for the Entire Crypto Market → $1 trillion wiped out in the past month.

◾ Cumulative Loss for the Entire Crypto Market → $2 trillion contraction since the ATH on October 6, 2025.

PERSPECTIVE

The $60K support holds, yet selling pressure persists. The capitulation phase, as indicated by on-chain data from the previous analysis, combined with record capital outflows, suggests the downward movement has not yet found its exhaustion point. Talking about a sustained reversal at this moment is premature; rigorous monitoring of the macroeconomic landscape is required. Although a technical recovery has occurred, the predominant trend remains one of caution.

Written by GugaOnChain

On-chain data reveals a significant shift in large-scale market participant behavior on Binance. The Exchange Whale Ratio (applying a 30-day Simple Moving Average) has surged to 0.447, marking its highest level since March 2025.

Key Analysis Points:

Whale Selling Pressure: An elevated Whale Ratio indicates that the top 10 inflows account for a disproportionately large share of total deposits. This behavior typically signals that whales are aggressively moving funds onto the exchange, a precursor often associated with heavy selling (dumping) or hedging activities.

Inverse Correlation: As illustrated in the chart, this sharp spike in whale activity coincides directly with a significant price correction, driving Bitcoin down to the $64,500 region ($64.6K low). The divergence is clear: as whale dominance in inflows rises, price action weakens.

Market Outlook: This metric serves as a caution signal. As long as the Whale Ratio remains elevated, the market remains vulnerable to institutional selling pressure. Traders should monitor this metric for a cooling-off period; a reversal in the Whale Ratio is likely required before a sustainable local bottom can be confirmed.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin flow data on the Binance platform reveals a significant shift in the behavior of large wallets during the first days of February, with the whale inflow ratio reaching its highest level since 2022. This reflects a clear return of activity from major addresses on the deposit side of the platform.

According to the data, total Bitcoin inflows to Binance reached approximately 78,500 BTC, while whale inflows alone amounted to around 38,100 BTC. Consequently, the whale contribution to total inflows rose to approximately 48.5%, the highest level since 2022. These figures indicate that nearly half of the Bitcoin deposited on Binance during this period came from large wallets—an important development in the market’s structure.

This sharp increase in the whale inflow ratio does not necessarily indicate an immediate intention to sell. Rather, it may reflect a range of possible scenarios. For instance, some whales could be reallocating their positions or preparing to deploy liquidity in derivatives markets. Alternatively, this behavior may signal a desire to lock in profits or reduce risk after periods of heightened price volatility.

Historically, elevated whale inflows often coincide with market transition phases, when prices sit in a fragile equilibrium between supply and demand. In some past cycles, such readings preceded temporary selling pressure, while in others they aligned with accumulation and repositioning phases before subsequent upward moves.

Written by Arab Chain

Bitcoin SOPR has once again broken below 1.0, signaling that coins are being spent at a loss.

Historically, this level has marked regime shifts, not short-term pullbacks.

What stands out is the context.

In previous cycles (2018, 2020, 2022), sustained SOPR weakness below 1 did not mark the bottom.

Instead, it appeared early in the bear market, followed by extended periods of distribution, failed rebounds, and deeper capitulation phases.

At this stage:

SOPR is below 1, but has not reached extreme stress levels

Loss realization is rising, yet panic behavior remains limited

Price is weakening, but capitulation-like dynamics are still absent

This suggests the market is transitioning into a bear phase, not completing it.

Historically, true bottoms formed only after:

Prolonged SOPR suppression

Multiple failed recoveries above 1

Broad and persistent loss realization across holders

Bottom line:

SOPR confirms bear market entry, but the bottom is likely still some distance away.

This looks more like the beginning of a longer adjustment phase than a final flush.

Written by 우민규 Woominkyu

1. The first chart shows that after Long-Term Holders (LTHs) entered a loss zone during the 2021 cycle, downside momentum accelerated significantly.

2. The second chart indicates that as of today, Long-Term Holders have once again moved into a loss phase.

- Conclusion

Historical precedent from 2021 suggests that LTH loss entry often marked the beginning of panic-driven selling and the transition into a sustained bearish phase.

Therefore, premature positioning before clear trend confirmation may carry elevated downside risk at current levels.

Written by COINDREAM

The Coinbase Premium Gap has never been this negative since the beginning of the year.

Especially since this is a volume-weighted version, which helps reduce as much noise as possible by giving more weight to the largest volumes in the gap calculation.

When it turns negative to this extent, it means that the price of BTC on Coinbase Pro, a platform mainly used by professionals, institutions, and high-net-worth individual accounts, is lower than on Binance, a platform accessible to everyone and widely used by retail investors.

In other words, selling pressure coming from institutional players has intensified, pushing the price lower and creating a negative gap.

The current period is extremely challenging and highly uncertain, a climate that is not conducive to risk-taking and therefore to significant investments in BTC, which remains a volatile and risky asset.

Written by Darkfost

Historically, in every cycle, Bitcoin’s highest monthly close has acted as the macro bottom of the following cycle.

The previous cycle’s highest monthly close is approximately $61,000.

If price drops below this level and closes the month below it, this would mark the first time in Bitcoin’s history that this cyclical structure breaks.

That’s why $61K is not just a support, but a key reference level for the entire cycle structure.

Written by İbrahim COŞAR

Across the crypto market, prominent analysts have turned almost unanimously bearish. The Analyst Consensus Index shows that bullish calls have largely vanished, and pessimism now dominates. Bitcoin’s move into the $60,000s is not a “reasonless crash,” but a repricing driven by a slowing U.S. economy.

Cracks are forming in the labor market. January layoffs exceeded 100,000—among the highest since 2009—while JOLTS job openings fell to their lowest since 2023. This combination typically signals weakening consumption.

Stress is also building in tech credit markets. Distress ratios for tech loans (~14.5%) and bonds (~9.5%) have reached multi-year highs under prolonged high interest rates. Housing demand is deteriorating as well, with sellers outnumbering buyers by roughly 530,000—the widest gap on record.

Despite the slowdown, the Fed has not clearly eased. Liquidity remains tight, while the bond market is warning: the U.S. 2y–10y spread has bear-steepened to four-year highs, a move often seen ahead of recessions.

For Bitcoin, selling pressure has largely flowed through Coinbase, pointing to weak U.S. spot demand. This decline reflects both leverage unwinds and deteriorating U.S.-led spot flows. Crypto Fear & Greed has fallen to 11, showing sentiment and positioning broke before price.

XWIN Research highlighted this risk on January 1, outlining a macro-shock scenario that markets are now leaning toward. A short-term relief rally is possible from extreme oversold conditions, but it would not confirm a bottom. True bottoms form when sellers are exhausted, not when prices stabilize.

(https://cryptoquant.com/insights/quicktake/69557ca86f89e81772a35078-Reframing-Bitcoin-in-2026-Scenarios-Structure-and-On-Chain-Signals)

What matters now is not the rebound size, but whether spot flows recover, ETF selling slows, and sell-side volume contracts. Until those structural shifts appear, patience remains essential.

Written by XWIN Research Japan

Data on short-term whale losses (STH Whale Unrealized P&L) shows that this segment is experiencing its largest unrealized loss in history, exceeding -$21 billion. This level reflects exceptional psychological and financial pressure on fast-moving capital and indicates that a significant proportion of whales that entered the market in recent months are now underwater following the sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price.

On the other hand, Binance’s BTC CVD Confirmation Score, which measures the alignment between price movements and actual buy and sell order flows using a moving average correlation coefficient, currently registers a relatively high level near 0.83. This suggests that price action is becoming more consistent with real volume behavior in the market, indicating that buying activity is becoming more apparent despite the prevailing price weakness.

Historically, short-term whale losses reaching such extreme levels often coincide with advanced stages of a correction, when forced-selling waves have exhausted a significant portion of their momentum. In these environments, the market tends to transition from a distribution phase to a phase of seeking a new price equilibrium, paving the way for the formation of a base upon which future advances can be built.

This positive divergence typically emerges near market transitional phases, as selling momentum weakens while buying forces quietly begin to build positions. Accordingly, the convergence of extreme STH whale losses with improved CVD confirmation on Binance reinforces the hypothesis that Bitcoin is approaching a local bottom formation zone, or at least a consolidation phase, ahead of any broader recovery attempt in the medium term.

Written by Arab Chain

The question dominating the cryptocurrency market is: "How far will this Bear Market go?" Bitcoin, which has accumulated a 17% decline this year, faces a perfect storm of massive institutional outflows from ETFs ($12 billion in three months), global risk aversion, and a lack of clear regulatory support. However, this scenario of intense selling by major players may be paving the way for a future reversal. The focus now shifts to identifying the accumulation zone – the level where selling pressure exhausts itself and from which 'whales' and funds can re-enter with intensity, signaling the end of the downtrend.

MARKET CYCLE SIGNALS

To navigate this turbulence and anticipate the turnaround, a didactic on-chain data-based indicator proves crucial: BTC: Market Cycle Signals (Distribution–Capitulation–Accumulation).

It interprets Bitcoin’s market cycle by segmenting it into three clear phases based on monthly Bollinger Bands:

◾ Distribution → Price touches the upper band (euphoria).

◾ Capitulation → Price crosses the 20‑month moving average in decline and seeks the lower band (panic).

◾ Accumulation → Price finds support at the lower band and consolidates (buying phase).

The current price convergence toward the band signaling the start of the accumulation phase, situated around $54.6K, suggests we are in the critical transition between Capitulation and Accumulation. This level, identified through the historical analysis of BTC: Market Cycle Signals, establishes itself as the prime candidate for the bottom region of this Bear Market.

CONCLUSION

Anticipating market movements is a strategic privilege. Tools like the BTC: Market Cycle Signals convert complex on-chain data into clarity, transforming the investor from a spectator into the architect of their own accumulation. While most wait for the obvious reversal, you will already be positioned in the region where the cycle is reborn.

Written by GugaOnChain

Bitcoin continues to experience strong downward pressure as selling activity accelerates across multiple wallet cohorts. On-chain data shows that the current decline is not driven solely by retail capitulation but by a distribution process coming from structurally significant holders.

Recent Accumulation vs. Distribution metrics reveal that wallets holding between 10 and 100 BTC, between 100 and 1,000 BTC, as well as large Humpback Whales holding more than 10,000 BTC, are actively reducing their balances. Historically, synchronized selling among these cohorts has been associated with periods of high instability and intense bearish directional movements in the market.

This distribution is particularly relevant because these groups represent participants with significant liquidity influence. When these entities transition from accumulation phases to distribution phases, the spot market often struggles to absorb incoming supply, leading to accelerated price declines.

Derivatives data further reinforces this bearish structure. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) in futures markets remains persistently negative, indicating a dominance of aggressive sell orders. This suggests that short position openings and long liquidations are amplifying downward momentum

From a market structure perspective, this dual pressure coming from both spot distribution and derivatives is weakening key technical support levels. As buying liquidity decreases, Bitcoin becomes increasingly vulnerable to sharp price dislocations

The recent drop toward the $66,000 region reflects an environment where supply dominance is clearly prevailing. Historically, similar phases have only stabilized once clear accumulation signals reappear across major cohorts and derivatives aggression begins to neutralize

Monitoring whale behavior, cohort accumulation trends, and derivatives flow dynamics will be essential to identifying potential early signs of market stabilization

by Carmelo Alemán, On Chain Analyst

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

As BTC gradually approaches a 50% correction from its October all time high, we can see that stablecoin inflows to exchanges are increasing 📈

In late December 2025, the weekly average stablecoin inflows (7 day moving average) had dropped to $51B, perfectly reflecting the lack of demand we have been facing for several months.

Today, at $98B, these inflows have doubled and have just moved above the 90 day average, which stands at $89B.

This suggests that capital deployment has accelerated in recent weeks, and the market clearly needs it.

Nevertheless, selling pressure remains too strong to be fully absorbed.

It is still a positive signal, as it shows that investor interest is gradually returning at this level of correction.

This dynamic still needs to strengthen, but some participants are already buying this dip.

Written by Darkfost

• Ethereum whales had higher unrealized profit at the 2024 ATH (6) than at the 2025 ATH (10), despite the higher price level.

• Likewise, it can be confirmed that they are currently experiencing more pain during this market drop (13) than during the 2025 drop (7).

• On the other hand, the analysis of weekly price action from 2023 to the present is described in the edited image.

Written by _OnChain