Bitcoin SOPR has once again broken below 1.0, signaling that coins are being spent at a loss.
Historically, this level has marked regime shifts, not short-term pullbacks.
What stands out is the context.
In previous cycles (2018, 2020, 2022), sustained SOPR weakness below 1 did not mark the bottom.
Instead, it appeared early in the bear market, followed by extended periods of distribution, failed rebounds, and deeper capitulation phases.
At this stage:
SOPR is below 1, but has not reached extreme stress levels
Loss realization is rising, yet panic behavior remains limited
Price is weakening, but capitulation-like dynamics are still absent
This suggests the market is transitioning into a bear phase, not completing it.
Historically, true bottoms formed only after:
Prolonged SOPR suppression
Multiple failed recoveries above 1
Broad and persistent loss realization across holders
Bottom line:
SOPR confirms bear market entry, but the bottom is likely still some distance away.
This looks more like the beginning of a longer adjustment phase than a final flush.
Written by 우민규 Woominkyu