Data on short-term whale losses (STH Whale Unrealized P&L) shows that this segment is experiencing its largest unrealized loss in history, exceeding -$21 billion. This level reflects exceptional psychological and financial pressure on fast-moving capital and indicates that a significant proportion of whales that entered the market in recent months are now underwater following the sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price.
On the other hand, Binance’s BTC CVD Confirmation Score, which measures the alignment between price movements and actual buy and sell order flows using a moving average correlation coefficient, currently registers a relatively high level near 0.83. This suggests that price action is becoming more consistent with real volume behavior in the market, indicating that buying activity is becoming more apparent despite the prevailing price weakness.
Historically, short-term whale losses reaching such extreme levels often coincide with advanced stages of a correction, when forced-selling waves have exhausted a significant portion of their momentum. In these environments, the market tends to transition from a distribution phase to a phase of seeking a new price equilibrium, paving the way for the formation of a base upon which future advances can be built.
This positive divergence typically emerges near market transitional phases, as selling momentum weakens while buying forces quietly begin to build positions. Accordingly, the convergence of extreme STH whale losses with improved CVD confirmation on Binance reinforces the hypothesis that Bitcoin is approaching a local bottom formation zone, or at least a consolidation phase, ahead of any broader recovery attempt in the medium term.
Written by Arab Chain