Most of the valuation excess has already been removed. What remains is a market sitting above its realized base, but with a much smaller profit buffer than before.

BTC still trades above Realized Price: about $67K vs $54K. So this is not a full reset. But the gap has compressed hard.

MVRV is down to 1.24. NUPL is down to 0.20. Earlier in the cycle both were much higher. That matters because selling is no longer driven by easy profit-taking. Once profit buffers shrink, behavior changes. Supply starts coming from break-even exits, defensive selling, and stress.

That stress is visible in NRPL. The 30D average is still negative at roughly $-281.75M, which means realized losses continue to outweigh realized profits. The sharpest stress hit on Feb 5, 2026, when NRPL dropped to about $-5.22B and NUPL fell near 0.12.

So the structure is clearer now.

The market is no longer expensive. But it also has not fully reset. Price is still above realized price, while profit buffers across the system have already been compressed.

That usually leaves Bitcoin in a middle zone:

not overheated,

not washed out,

not ready to confirm a new expansion yet.

Weak hands have already taken damage. The next question is whether supply can still force a full breakdown from here.

Not a clean bottom. But not clean distribution either 🧸 DYOR

Written by TeddyVision