On the eve of Trump’s ultimatum to Iran, global markets bleed. With Brent crude priced at US$113 and the Nasdaq down 0.7%, investors fear a new inflationary shock, especially after U.S. employment data came in above expectations. Defying Wall Street’s risk aversion, Bitcoin shows resilience and reaches the strong mark of US$69,251.74 (+3.83% over the past 7 days).

ESTIMATED LEVERAGE RATIO – ELR

On-chain analysis confirms that this decoupling is not a speculative bubble. Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR), calculated exclusively using USDT reserves as collateral, stands at a healthy 0.16. For historical context, the indicator registered 0.34 during the all-time high (October 2025) and 0.20 at the peak of Trump’s “Tarifaço” (April 2025). The current level of 0.16 is close to the exhaustion zone seen at the bottom of the ongoing bear market (0.14, recorded on 02/06/26). This asymmetry proves that the colossal “dry powder” in USDT stored on the exchange completely overshadows the size of open positions (Open Interest).

Additionally, Binance’s Funding Rate (0.006993) reflects sustainable optimism, free from excessive leveraged bets on long positions. In parallel, the Coinbase Premium Index in negative territory (-0.0263395) highlights hesitation among U.S. institutions. Therefore, Bitcoin’s current upward momentum does not stem from American institutional capital nor from leverage strength, but rather from aggressive spot market absorption, driven by global retail investors.

PROBABILISTIC CONCLUSION

There is a very high probability that price support around $68.8k represents organic and solid demand. With the derivatives market purged of excessive leverage, if the Middle East conflict drags down traditional markets tomorrow, the systemic risk of a cascading liquidation (long squeeze) originating from crypto is statistically minimal. Bitcoin has shielded itself against the storm.

Written by GugaOnChain