Bitcoin is no longer following the Fed — it's now moving ahead of it. Binance Research says the shift started after U.S. spot ETFs launched in January 2024.

Before that, BTC usually moved with global easing cycles. Now, the link is flipped — and nearly three times stronger in the opposite direction. That means instead of reacting to Fed moves, Bitcoin may already be pricing them in.

The change comes from who's buying. ETFs brought in institutions that trade months ahead of policy shifts. Bitcoin is acting more like a forward-looking asset than a macro "lagging receiver."

This matters now because markets are nervous about stagflation and possible Fed hikes. But Binance argues the reaction may be overdone. If history repeats, central banks will eventually prioritize growth — and Bitcoin will likely price that pivot first.

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