Michael Saylor has spent nearly $50 billion over the last 5 years buying Bitcoin, and now he’s sitting underwater.
Adjusted for inflation, he’s down around $10 billion.
The bigger issue is that a large part of these BTC purchases were made using borrowed money and that debt has to be paid back. This is where things can get very messy, very fast.
I talked about this more than a month ago and warned about the risks. People like this create centralization, which goes against Bitcoin’s original purpose.
When leverage and concentration build up too much, the system becomes fragile.
I’ll keep you updated over the next few months.
And when I start buying Bitcoin again, I’ll say it here publicly.
A lot of people are going to regret ignoring these warnings.
BTC Didn’t Crash From Panic It Got Hit By Multi-Asset Fund De-Grossing
Listen everyone Feb 5 wasn’t a “crypto panic.” It was TradFi deleveraging. Bitwise advisor Jeff Park says the Feb 5 crypto selloff wasn’t driven by crypto-native fear. It was a multi-asset portfolio deleveraging event — the kind where funds cut risk everywhere, and crypto gets hit like a high-beta asset. This is why the move felt so violent and “indiscriminate.” What actually caused the bloodbath According to Park, a big driver was pod shops and multi-strategy funds de-grossing across portfolios. When risk managers hit the brakes, these funds don’t sell “just one thing.” They cut exposure across the board fast. Goldman Sachs’ prime brokerage desk reportedly flagged Feb 4 as one of the worst daily performances for multi-strategy funds, with a z-score of 3.5 a rare outcome that suggests serious stress inside systematic and multi-asset positioning. The CME basis trade unwind was a major accelerant Park pointed to the CME basis trade as a key mechanism behind the sell pressure. The near-dated basis reportedly jumped from ~3.3% (Feb 5) to ~9% (Feb 6) one of the biggest moves since ETFs launched. When that trade unwinds, it can force funds to sell spot and buy futures at scale, creating sharp downside pressure even if “retail sentiment” isn’t the core problem. He also noted the catalyst likely started in software equity selloffs, not crypto-specific headlines which lines up with the idea that BTC has been trading more like a risk asset inside multi-asset books. Why it dumped hard even with ETF inflows Here’s the part most people miss: BTC fell ~13.2%, but IBIT still recorded strong activity, including ~$10B in trading volume (a reported record) and ~$230M in net creations, adding around 6M shares. Total ETF inflows reportedly stayed above $300M. So the tape looked like “crypto is dead,” but under the hood, this was more about forced positioning unwind than “everyone suddenly hates Bitcoin.” Options and structured products made it worse Park also highlighted how structured products and options dealer positioning can turn a drop into a waterfall. Barrier-style structures (like knock-in features) can trigger accelerated hedging once price hits certain zones. At the same time, weeks of put activity meant many dealers were positioned short gamma — which forces them to hedge in a way that adds fuel to the downside as price falls. That’s how you get a dump that feels mechanical: not emotional, just flows. Bottom line Feb 5 looked like a crypto crash, but the explanation is simpler: TradFi de-risking hit multi-asset funds → basis trades unwound → short gamma hedging amplified the drop. When big money is forced to cut exposure, crypto doesn’t get a special treatment. It gets sold like everything else. Not financial advice
$BANANAS31 spike looks stretched and sellers are starting to fade the strength again.
Short Setup:
Entry Zone: 0.00435 – 0.00465
Stop Loss: 0.0050
Targets:
TP1: 0.00405
TP2: 0.00365
TP3: 0.00325
Pushes higher aren’t holding cleanly and buyers aren’t defending the move after the surge. Strength keeps getting sold into, and downside reactions are starting to move smoother. If sellers stay active, continuation lower is likely.
We’re seeing a quiet but important shift happening inside Bitcoin supply.
Wallets holding 10 to 10K BTC are still reducing exposure. Their supply share is now down to 68.04%, the lowest since May 2025.
At the same time, the smallest wallets under 0.01 BTC keep stacking. Their share has climbed to 0.249%, the highest since mid 2024.
This is classic redistribution.
Big players distribute into strength while retail absorbs supply.
These phases usually look “boring” at first. Volatility compresses, price chops, everyone gets impatient. But historically, this kind of ownership shift often happens before the market makes a big move.
What we’ve seen over the past ~7 days (into Feb 6) isn’t a “bad coin” story.
This was a market-wide flush across BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB, SOL.
Same direction. Same timing. Same cause.
Here’s what’s actually pushing the entire crypto market down:
First: leverage got nuked.
As price slipped, over $1B+ in liquidations hit in a short window.
That’s not sellers choosing to sell that’s forced selling.
Exchanges auto dump positions into a falling market and the cascade feeds itself.
This is how sharp drops accelerate. Second: risk-off everywhere. Crypto didn’t move alone.
Tech and AI stocks rolled over, and when Wall Street goes risk-off, crypto gets hit harder and faster.
Correlation still matters whether people like it or not.
Third: liquidity fears are back.
Markets are starting to price in tighter conditions again —
Fed leadership uncertainty, balance-sheet talk, dollar strength.
Speculative assets hate that environment.
Fourth: ETF flows flipped.
Spot BTC ETFs saw meaningful outflows, removing a key source of dip-buying support.
When that institutional bid steps away, air pockets form quickly.
Fifth: regulation still unresolved. Despite all the “crypto-friendly” headlines, real frameworks are still stalled. Uncertainty doesn’t crash markets but it keeps buyers cautious during selloffs.
Why some coins got hit harder:
BTC: Lost major psychological / technical levels → triggers systematic selling + liquidations
ETH: High beta to BTC in risk-off moves
XRP: Extra volatile during panic → sharp percentage swings
SOL: Leverage + high beta = exaggerated moves
BNB: Trades with broad sentiment and exchange-related risk narratives
This wasn’t random.
This wasn’t organic selling.
This was structure + leverage + liquidity all snapping at once.
I’ll keep watching how leverage resets and whether real buyers step back in.
When conditions change, I’ll say it publicly.
Ignoring this setup is how people get blindsided — again.