Hello everyone, I am V-Lian, your dog庄 analyst, starting from shorting at 106000 until now. It hasn't been smooth sailing all the way; we have helped everyone avoid two major extreme short squeeze markets at 97700 and 75500. So, is there a possibility of another squeeze this time? Let's analyze one by one.
Adhering to the iron rule of 'refusing to trade based on feelings', we directly use risk control models, on-chain data, and macro levels to conduct a thorough hardcore assessment of the possibility of this wave of 'extreme short squeeze to 75,000'.
🚨 Core assessment conclusion: The probability of a short squeeze to 75,000 is approximately 15% - 20% (considered to be tail extreme risk)
Here are the deep support logic:
⚖️ I. Macro and Financial Landscape: A drained pool cannot raise giant whales
Offshore Increment Exhaustion: To forcibly raise from the current 71,000 by 4,000 points to trigger 75,000 shorts, a huge amount of real cash must sweep away the stacked sell orders above. However, under the current macroeconomic conditions (strong dollar index, interest rate cut expectations repeatedly withdrawn), the net inflow of spot ETFs has stagnated or even slightly flowed out. Wall Street has not provided the ammunition for a full-scale attack.
Stablecoin Pipeline Cooling: On-chain data shows that the large-scale printing of USDT/USDC and the speed of inflow into exchanges have significantly slowed down recently. Without new blood injection, this 4,000-point rise, if solely relying on existing leverage in the market, is likely to encounter backlash due to momentum exhaustion at halfway up (for example, around 73,000).
🐋 II. On-Chain Micro Game: 'Friction Cost' of Main Force Dumping
1. How much cost is required to eat up 1 billion shorts?
The 1 billion dollars on the liquidation map is the 'prize', but before obtaining the prize, the main force must first eat through the concentrated institutional spot selling pressure hanging between 72,000 and 74,000. If they suddenly raise violently, it is equivalent to using their own real cash to take over the spots of other giants at high positions.
2. 'Boiling a Frog' is more conducive to distribution than 'Violent Explosion':
The main force prefers to conduct wide swings between 68,000 and 72,000. Once violently raised to 75,000, although it can blow up shorts, it will also immediately trigger extreme panic or profit-taking across the network, and subsequent selling pressure will surge like a tsunami, potentially burying the operators themselves.
This extreme pull-up seems to have a poor risk-reward ratio, but to survive in the market, one must learn to respect it. The probability of this short squeeze is less than 20%, but we must still be prepared for it.
🛡️ III. V Scythe's Risk Control Model and Tactical Response
Even if there is only a 15% probability, we must prepare for the contingency of this 'nuclear bomb' dropping.
This is a previous short squeeze warning (the market has already realized)
Portal: https://x.com/moonstone1986/status/2026595161112002590
(V Scythe · Sandbox Simulation: 74,000 Extreme Short Squeeze Trigger Paths and Endgame)
Core Positioning: This is a short squeeze, not a reversal. The bull market has not arrived, so don’t fantasize.
🛡️ Phase I: Induction and Ignition (Resistance Level: 71,500 - 72,500)
Market Action: The main force used the weekend or the early Asian trading period, when liquidity was most scarce, to suddenly push up through large spot orders (perhaps requiring only a few hundred BTC) to break through the recent resistance of 71,382.
Data Features:
Volume-Price Divergence: Spot trading volume remains sluggish, but open interest is surging dramatically.
Sentiment Indicator: Funding rates have started to turn from negative to neutral, and retail investors are beginning to hesitate whether to chase long positions.Game Psychology: The main force is creating the illusion of 'not going down', forcing retail investors who shorted around 70,000 to feel anxious.
⚔️ Phase II: Chain Reaction (Vacuum Zone: 72,500 - 73,500)
Market Action: Once the price entity penetrates the critical line of 72,500, the upper side will completely lose the pressure of spot sell orders, entering the 'liquidity vacuum zone'. The market will surge rapidly!
Data Features:
Long Kills Short Trigger: Short stop-loss orders in the 72,500 - 73,000 range were triggered. Shorts became fuel, pushing prices to soar.
CVD Extremely Distorted: Spot CVD is still negative (institutions are selling), but contract CVD is exploding - strong liquidation buying.Game Psychology: Right-side traders (especially those stuck in high positions with ETH/SOL) are in extreme FOMO, believing new highs are just around the corner and are starting to go all in on leverage.
🩸 Phase III: Meat Grinder Endgame (Liquidation Zone: 73,800 - 75,000)
Market Action: Prices pierced through 74,000 like a rocket, igniting the 1 billion dollar liquidation pool. The K-line instantaneously produced an extremely exaggerated 'Heaven and Earth Needle' on the 15-minute and even 5-minute levels.
Data Features:
Liquidation Waterfall: Frequent alerts of short liquidation clearing data.
Volume Released in Large Amounts: After reaching a high point, the price quickly fell back more than 1,500 points within a few minutes.
Still the same saying: In trading, it’s not about who can predict accurately, but who can survive longer in extreme market conditions. Now, the script is already written, and the bottom cards have been revealed. Bulls, do you dare to take on this 5,000-point carnival?
Finally, my private core circle has officially launched, and more than 20 experienced contract players have already joined. We achieved an 80% ROI in the first month. Welcome to join 👇
https://x.com/moonstone1986/status/2034867649470243198
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