$SOL extends its correction and trades around $81.50, pressured by risk aversion due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and the resumption of asset liquidations from FTX/Alameda. The asset remains within the bearish range of recent weeks, dangerously flirting with the psychological support of $80.
๐ RSI (14): 45-48 โ in neutral-bearish zone, reflecting contained momentum but without oversold signals anticipating an imminent rebound.
๐ MACD: The MACD line remains below the zero line on the daily chart, with the histogram flat, indicating that bearish pressure remains active but without violent acceleration.
๐ Price: trading around $81.50 - $82.00, with a drop of -4% on Sunday and flat trading on Monday. The price remains below the EMA-50 ($87.43) and well below the 100 and 200-day averages, confirming structural weakness.
๐ Volume and Derivatives: Volume has contracted by -22.6% compared to the average, reflecting low conviction. Open Interest (OI) fell to $4.72 billion, down from $4.88B the previous day, indicating less risk appetite among traders. Liquidations in 24h reached $8.36M, with short positions representing the majority, suggesting that bears were squeezed but the price continues to be pressured downwards.
๐ฉ Immediate support: $80.00 - $81.50 (current demand zone and psychological support). A sustained loss of $77.60* (minimum of February 5) would accelerate the drop to $67.50 (minimum of February 6). The next critical support level is located at $60.00 - $65.00 according to bearish continuation patterns.
๐ฅ Resistance: $82.50 - $83.00 (immediate barrier and Fib 0.382 retracement level). Major resistance is found in the $85.86 - $87.43 zone, where the SAR, EMA-50, and bearish trendline converge. A daily close above $88.00 would open the way to $90.00 - $95.00 and potentially $100.00 in a bullish scenario.
๐ Conclusion:
The scenario remains clearly bearish in the short and medium term. The resumption of FTX/Alameda liquidations ($16.2M in SOL moved to exchanges) adds supply pressure to the market, while geopolitical tensions (blocking of the Strait of Hormuz) generate global risk aversion affecting the entire crypto sector. Although ETFs recorded inflows of $11.45M on Friday, this was not enough to reverse the trend, and the week closed with net outflows for the third consecutive week ($5.62M). The ecosystem is still digesting the $285M hack of Drift Protocol, and corporate treasuries of SOL have collapsed by 80-90% from their highs, with analysts anticipating another drop of 30-50% before finding a floor.
The bias is bearish as long as SOL does not manage to close above $88 consistently. The $80 level is critical: if lost, it would open the door to an accelerated drop towards $75, then $70, and eventually the $60-67 zone in a capitulation scenario. Patience is key, and it is recommended to wait for seller exhaustion signals before considering long positions. Any bounce towards the $85-87 zone should be considered, for now, as a relief move within the prevailing bearish trend.
๐ฅHere the next move is decided๐ฅ