Gate, Bitget's new share offering for SpaceX is very popular, sharing my thoughts
In my personal opinion, it essentially means that users are gambling against the exchange (institution) on the price of SpaceX
👉The SpaceX stock price is higher than the subscription new token price, users earn
👉The SpaceX stock price is lower than the subscription new token price, the exchange (institution) wins
👉The prices of both are close, users earn less and lose less, the exchange earns fees and traffic
It seems very fair, but there is a fatal problem: the party you are gambling against is the rule maker
Whether it's the new SCPX on Gate or the new preSPAX on Bitget, the rules are set by the exchange (institution). If the exchange (institution) suffers significant losses, will they still recognize it and be willing to continue fulfilling this 'bet'
Why do major losses occur? This requires understanding the underlying logic of new token offerings.
The new tokens (let's just call them mirror tokens) are anchored to 1:1 SpaceX stocks. After SpaceX's IPO, both Gate and Bitget (Republic institution) will require users to use the funds from the exchanges to participate in the IPO, or wait until the stocks are tradable and directly purchase the stocks to complete asset fixation, meaning 1 token = 1 SpaceX stock.
The price development of mirror tokens can be divided into three phases.
1️⃣ Before the IPO: Pure speculation.
At this point, the price can only serve as a reference and has no actual significance. The price of mirror tokens is just a number; it could be 1 or 10,000 (for example: if SpaceX suddenly announces it won't issue stock, then the mirror tokens lose their meaning, and their underlying logic collapses, which could lead to a complete drop to zero; conversely, if the number of shares issued is extremely low, that could drive up the stock price).
2️⃣ After the IPO - during the lock-up period: Transitioning from 'pure speculation' to 'hedged mirror assets'.
At this stage, SpaceX has gone public and has a real public stock price. Gate and Bitget (Republic institution) will start real hedging, and the price of mirror tokens will gradually align with SpaceX's actual stock price.
3️⃣ After the lock-up period ends.
Users can directly convert between tokens and stocks; at this time, the price of mirror tokens will be very close to the stock price.
During this period, there's a serious question: Can the mirror tokens successfully achieve asset anchoring?
Here comes the problem: if the price after SpaceX's IPO is lower than the price at which the mirror tokens were purchased in the exchange, then the exchange and institutions can achieve hedging and asset anchoring. However, if the price remains above the mirror token price, then for every $1 increase, the exchange loses $1 per share. Are the exchanges and institutions willing to take on this loss, and how much of a loss are they willing to bear?
To give an extreme example, if SpaceX's stock price is consistently $100 higher than these mirror tokens, then Gate would lose $3.39 million, and Bitget (Republic institution) would lose $9.4 million.
Whether exchanges and institutions are willing to take on this risk is crucial; if they’re not willing to bear this loss, the so-called mirror tokens lack any underlying asset backing, making them as meaningless as a mirage.
To give another extreme example, what if SpaceX doesn't go for an IPO? Are they just going to refund your money? Do you think that's possible? Is there really such a thing as a free lunch?
I guess this is also the reason why @binance and @okx haven't taken a bite of this flow.
Top exchanges like Binance and OKX are strong enough, yet they haven't dared to take this risk, while Gate and Bitget are making a lot of noise about it 👀.
Imagine if safety and risk were really minimal; would Binance and OKX not go for such a big flow?
As for whether to participate in the new offerings from @Gate and @bitget, I think everyone's perspective and risk management differ, so it's really a matter of personal judgment.
These are just my personal views; if there are any mistakes, please correct me. Feel free to engage in more discussions.