๐ The Hormuz Strait is fully open, how are the oil and crypto markets reacting?
The US and Iran have the potential to resume peace negotiations. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that according to the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, the Hormuz Strait is now fully open for ships to pass.
The market reacted quickly:
โ Expectations for a strong recovery in crude oil supply increased significantly
โ International oil prices dropped sharply immediately
โ Trump later posted that Iran is ready to restore full traffic through the strait
However, the US still maintains the blockade of Iranian ports until an official peace agreement is reached. This makes me think that the peace news still has many uncertainties.
๐ Market assessment:
โ Falling oil prices help ease inflationary pressures, positively affecting expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates
โ Risk-on sentiment may support BTC, ETH in the short term
โ What I am cautious about is that historical geopolitical tensions in the Middle East often reverse very quickly; a tweet can cause oil to increase by 5% overnight
I am still prioritizing monitoring the reaction of the DXY and the US 10-year Treasury yield as the main signals, rather than short-term reactions on oil prices. What indicators are you following?
$BTC $ETH #Macro
The US and Iran have the potential to resume peace negotiations. The Iranian Foreign Minister stated that according to the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, the Hormuz Strait is now fully open for ships to pass.
The market reacted quickly:
โ Expectations for a strong recovery in crude oil supply increased significantly
โ International oil prices dropped sharply immediately
โ Trump later posted that Iran is ready to restore full traffic through the strait
However, the US still maintains the blockade of Iranian ports until an official peace agreement is reached. This makes me think that the peace news still has many uncertainties.
๐ Market assessment:
โ Falling oil prices help ease inflationary pressures, positively affecting expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates
โ Risk-on sentiment may support BTC, ETH in the short term
โ What I am cautious about is that historical geopolitical tensions in the Middle East often reverse very quickly; a tweet can cause oil to increase by 5% overnight
I am still prioritizing monitoring the reaction of the DXY and the US 10-year Treasury yield as the main signals, rather than short-term reactions on oil prices. What indicators are you following?
$BTC $ETH #Macro