This report is the second of my daily routine tasks, continuously updated since April 27. All forecasts are based on current real-time data, one-day prediction window (Beijing time April 29), risk warning: the crypto market is highly volatile, for reference only, not investment advice.

1. Bitcoin liquidity intelligence

Current real weight is:

BTC price is stable around $76,399 (24h +0.8%), with a market cap of about $1.53 trillion, and BTC dominance at 57.9%. The total market cap is $2.64 trillion, showing a moderate recovery overall, but trading volume has not significantly increased, with real weight still concentrated in the $74,000-$78,000 range (main holding zone for institutions and smart money). Precise imbalance ratio:

  • Binance long/short ratio is about 0.88-1.0 (slightly bearish); OKX/Bybit is about 0.99-1.01 (neutral); the overall market long position ratio is about 49-51%. Retail and whale positions are both slightly bearish and neutral, with no extreme one-sided flows.

Liquidity heatmap (CoinGlass Binance BTCUSDT) indicates that the strong liquidity support zone is between $74,000-$75,000 (large amounts of stop-loss and limit orders accumulated); resistance above is between $78,000-$80,000 (dense sell orders). The liquidation heatmap shows that the $76,000-$77,000 range is a short-term magnet zone, and breaking through it could trigger a chain reaction of long/short liquidations. Order book pressure shows slight selling pressure dominance but no unilateral imbalance.

Candlestick technical analysis:

4H/daily charts are in a high-level consolidation, forming a small bull flag pattern, with multiple tests of $75,700 support followed by rebounds. MACD momentum is converging, RSI is neutral to bullish (not overbought). Key support: $74,259-$75,000; resistance: $78,000-$80,000. If we close above $76,500 today, the short-term structure leans bullish; dropping below $74,000 would indicate weakness.

ETF inflow and outflow data:

Latest public data (from Farside and other channels) shows institutions are still net inflowing but at a slowing pace, with BlackRock's IBIT and other main products remaining the primary buyers, cumulative inflows staying positive with no signals of large outflows. Need to pay attention to institutional position adjustments post-FOMC.

Macro events this week that could impact Bitcoin prices (focus on April 28-30):

  • April 28-29: FOMC interest rate decision + Powell's press conference (market expects rates to remain unchanged, focusing on the dot plot and forward guidance).

  • April 30: Q1 GDP preliminary value + March core PCE inflation data.

  • During the same period: earnings reports from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and other S&P 500 companies (20%).
    This week is the most macro-intensive week of 2026; any 'hawkish' or inflation exceeding expectations signals could trigger risk aversion; conversely, it would be beneficial for risk assets.

Comprehensive analysis + next day's (April 29) trend forecast:

Short-term liquidity and technicals are pointing towards a slightly bullish consolidation. Ahead of the FOMC, the market tends to 'buy the rumor', expecting BTC to oscillate between $75,800-$78,000 on April 29, with a breakout probability of about 55% (target $77,500-$78,000), downside risk is controlled at $74,500. If FOMC guidance is dovish, we could quickly surge to $79,000; conversely, drop back to test the $74,000 support.

2. Ethereum intelligence ETH

Current price $2,298 (24h +0.2%), highly correlated with BTC (correlation > 0.85), both in high-level consolidation. ETH/BTC exchange rate is stable, showing no significant decoupling.

From a technical candlestick perspective: the 4H line also shows a bull flag formation, support at $2,200-$2,250, resistance at $2,350-$2,400. MACD is converging, RSI is neutral. There are no independent driving factors, short-term is following BTC.

Next day's up and down analysis:

Expected slight upward or flat movement (volatility <3%). If BTC stands above $77,000, ETH is expected to test $2,350; otherwise, it may drop back to $2,250 support. Overall moves in sync with BTC, no independent bullish catalysts.

3. Three altcoin trading strategies (TAO, NEAR, HYPE)

Strategy based on current price levels, liquidity heatmap, and personal risk preferences, only applicable to high liquidity CEX spot/perpetual (leverage ≤ 5x). Each position should not exceed 5-8% of total capital.

  • TAO (Bittensor, currently $256.30, 24h +4.2%)
    Strategy: long position range trading. Upper target $270 (recent high), lower support $240 (strong liquidity zone). Entry price $250-$255, stop-loss at $240 (-6%), take profit in batches at $265/$270. Liquidity setup: limit orders to avoid the thin layer between $245-$250, using 4H pullbacks to enter.
    View: The AI narrative remains one of the strongest themes for 2026, with TAO's fundamentals (decentralized AI computing) solid, short-term overbought but with significant rotation potential. I am optimistic and suggest holding a small position; if it breaks $270, consider adding; if it drops below $240, take quick losses, short-term bullish probability is 65%.

  • NEAR (Near Protocol, currently $1.35, 24h 0.0%)
    Strategy: mainly range consolidation. Upper limit $1.45 (resistance), lower limit $1.28 (support). Entry price $1.32-$1.35, stop-loss at $1.28 (-5%), take profit at $1.42/$1.45. Liquidity setup: avoid large orders, use 1H pullbacks + increased volume to enter.
    View: NEAR's ecosystem is robust (Layer1 + AI + DeFi), but lacks independent catalysts under current macro pressure, showing weak trends. I am neutral to cautious and do not recommend heavily chasing; suitable for swing trading, consider adding if it breaks $1.45, otherwise mainly wait and see, short-term bullish probability is 45%.

  • HYPE (Hyperliquid, currently $39.89, 24h +4.2%)
    Strategy: short-term long. Upper limit $43 (recent resistance), lower limit $37 (strong support). Entry price $38.5-$40, stop-loss at $37 (-7%), take profit at $42/$43. Liquidity setup: prioritize perpetual contracts, using HYPE's high liquidity (24h volume $250 million+), avoid thin layer at $38.
    View: As an L1 + native perpetual DEX, HYPE has extremely strong fundamentals, with trading volume and TVL continuing to grow, positioning itself as a new DeFi leader in 2026. I see real potential and suggest participating with a small position; however, be cautious of common volatility in L1 projects, strictly enforce stop-loss discipline, and if it breaks $43, convert to a mid-term hold, short-term bullish probability is 70%.

4. Real movements of whales and smart money. Lookonchain data shows:

  • Some well-known whales (including addresses like 'Silver Ironhead') have recently been repeatedly opening/closing BTC and ETH long positions with leverage (single transactions ranging from $10M-$25M), some have locked in small profits after closing; others have been consistently opening 20x BTC short positions (single transaction at $23M, winning streak of 9 times).

  • Large USDC ($225 million) flowing into Binance/Bybit/Deribit, with some turning to withdraw ETH ($77.52 million).

  • Overall smart money is in a 'buying and withdrawing' state: some added to longs around $76k, while others reduced holdings at high levels to lock in profits. Storage locations are mainly in CEX cold wallets and derivatives accounts, closely aligned with current spot prices, showing no signs of large-scale exit, but leverage usage is cautious.

5. On-chain overview (based on Glassnode/CryptoQuant real institutional data)

  • Short term: futures dominate, spot demand is moderately recovering but lagging; profit-taking pressure exists for short-term holders; MVRV and other indicators show it remains in a reasonable range, not excessively overheated.

  • Long term: institutional and long-term holders (LTH) positions are stable, ETF inflows continue + sovereign/corporate reserve signals remain unchanged, overall still in the mid-stage of a bull market cycle.

  • Conclusion: short-term consolidation, long-term bullish logic remains intact. FOMC data will be the short-term directional turning point.

6. My personal interpretation

Data shows that the market is in a 'pre-macro event buildup' phase, with neither liquidity nor on-chain showing extreme signals. The long/short ratio being neutral indicates a balance between bulls and bears, and whale behavior is also primarily range-bound rather than unilateral betting. This means that in the short term (April 29), it is likely still range-bound, with the true direction to be determined by the FOMC. My main focus areas are:

  1. FOMC's forward guidance tone (whether it hints at a rate cut path this year);

  2. Whether BTC can effectively hold above $76,500 and challenge $78,000 (technical confirmation signal);

  3. The relative strength of HYPE and other high beta altcoins (if they continue to outperform BTC, risk appetite may rise).

What factors could change my view:

  • If FOMC's Powell delivers a strong dovish signal (or if PCE data comes in below expectations), I will adjust my one-day forecast to bullish, targeting directly at $80,000;

  • If inflation data exceeds expectations + hawkish comments, or if BTC drops below $74,000 with volume, I will become cautious and suggest reducing positions to wait and see;

  • If whales show large unilateral inflows to CEX cold wallets or continue to leverage long positions, it will also reinforce the bullish outlook.

Overall, I remain cautiously optimistic for the mid-term next week: macro uncertainty is the biggest variable, but on-chain and institutional bases are still present. I suggest strictly implementing stop-losses, keeping positions at reasonable levels, and patiently waiting for the FOMC's outcome.