One, the vote we’ve waited ten years for has finally happened today $BTC
On May 14th, Eastern Time, the Senate Banking Committee passed the (CLARITY Act) with a bipartisan vote of 15:9.
This should have been a milestone the crypto industry has been waiting ten years for—clearly defining the SEC and CFTC's regulatory roles, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, DeFi, and the entire industry. But today’s candlestick showed a rise, yet it didn’t take off. It’s not that the good news isn’t strong enough; the game is still on.
Your trader here has three things to say.
First off, the list of amendments before the committee's review is shocking—over 100 of them, the highest in the committee's history. Elizabeth Warren alone carried over forty, but all three of her amendments got shot down 11:13. The committee also passed the Republican-proposed AI tool sandbox amendment with a 15:9 vote.
Secondly, the biggest compromise comes from stablecoin yield terms—prohibiting passive holding rewards but allowing trading activity rewards. This is basically telling banks: deposit interest isn't working, but doing work on-chain can earn money.
Thirdly, the bill has now been submitted for full Senate deliberation, with a vote scheduled before the August recess, after which it will need to be merged with the House version before being sent to Trump for signature. The window is still open, there’s still time, but those hoping for an 'immediate surge upon bill passage' may be disappointed.
I mentioned back in early May that pushing the bill from April to May wasn't a dead end; it was the final showdown entering a fierce battle. Today's 15:9 voting result pushed the market prediction of passing by 2026 from 62% to 73%. Wall Street's echoes are always loud; every fluctuation you see now will look like a ticket stub from the pre-show when looking back on the day the legislation finally drops.
The real big money is waiting for the legislation to land. The ETF is just an appetizer; CLARITY is the main course.
2. BlackRock is calmly accumulating, while Wall Street shows a divergence between bulls and bears.
Yesterday, Bitcoin spot ETF saw a total net inflow of $131 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $144 million, leading the pack for several days. The historical total net inflow has reached $65.917 billion.
On the same day, BlackRock transferred up to $287 million in Bitcoin to Coinbase—sensitive timing. The same institution is buying through ETF channels on one hand while transferring chips on-chain on the other. Does this mean a portion of Bitcoin is being moved from custody wallets to exchanges for future liquidity use? Position structure adjustments do not signify a trend reversal.
Another thing worth noting: The 13F filings disclosed on May 13 show that quant giant Jane Street significantly reduced its Bitcoin ETF exposure in the first quarter—IBIT holdings dropped by about 71% to 5.87 million shares, and FBTC holdings decreased by about 60% to approximately 2 million shares. They haven't exited the crypto market but have increased positions in Ethereum ETFs and added Coinbase, Ripple, and other crypto-related stocks. This is a key signal: a clear divergence between bulls and bears is emerging within Wall Street. Jane Street is reducing its holdings in BlackRock's IBIT, while BlackRock continues to buy—bears have selling pressure, and bulls have buying support; the deciding factor is the power dynamic, not one-sided will.
But do retail traders know? Seeing an ETF outflow of $635 million in a day, they shout 'institutions are running away', and when they see an inflow of $131 million today, they shout 'institutions are back', always chasing news in the rearview mirror.
3. 82,000 hit the top three times and was thrown back three times.
On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr provided the hardest technical diagnosis on May 15: Bitcoin's three attempts to break through the 82,000 zone have all failed. Short-term holders are repeatedly using every rebound to sell, with price stuck between the realized cost line of short-term holders at $77,900 and the 200-day moving average at $82,100—creating a trap of about $4,200, both technically and psychologically. As long as the price remains below $82,100, the resistance structure is unbroken.
The real reason behind the standoff between bulls and bears lies in the funding structure. Over the past 24 hours, about $317 million was liquidated across the network, with both sides each liquidating around $160 million. Both bulls and bears are getting cleared; in every charge, both sides have had casualties.
4. Iran is receiving Bitcoin every day.
Some still view Iran as a 'bearish factor'—each ship passing through the Strait of Hormuz is charged over $1 million, and about 20% of the world's crude oil passes through there. But many fail to see the other side of the coin: Iran's toll fee law has long been written into legislation, charging high fees for transiting ships in cryptocurrency. Every day, real Bitcoin flows into Iran's wallets. This isn't just 'a tweet from some national leader'; it's a sovereign nation's actions injecting a fundamental shift in Bitcoin demand.
Iran is trying to establish a settlement channel for global energy that is independent of the dollar. The fissure has opened and cannot be closed.
5. Strategy is still buying, but at a slower pace.
MicroStrategy bought only 535 BTC last week, averaging around $80,340, costing about $43 million, marking the smallest weekly purchase since 2026. Total holdings stand at 818,869 BTC, with the average cost rising to $75,543. From a massive purchase of 34,164 BTC four weeks ago to just 535 today—the pace has sharply slowed. But they are still buying, which is a signal.
The largest whales are still floating on the surface.
Three realms are set up—
Sky realm: $82,100-$83,000. The strong resistance zone that has been hit three times; breaking through requires the 200-day moving average to stabilize with volume.
Human realm: $79,500-$80,500. The central area where bull and bear costs intersect, with BlackRock calmly accumulating.
Earth realm: $77,900-$78,500. The cost floor for short-term holders and the final psychological defense line for the ETF, with $77,900 being the core reference anchor of the realized cost line for 1W-1M holders.
Today's three key points—
Don't use the chips you sold at 78,000 to buy the story of picking up at 82,000. When 82,000 gets hit for the third time, you panic while someone else reads the data on-chain, waiting for the breakout signal.
Every dip below 82,000 has someone placing orders to accumulate chips. Four attempts to charge through this level have been met with selling pressure, indicating the wall is high, but it also shows that each time the price is pushed back, someone is buying at lower levels—testing the wall's weakness while others wait for it to collapse.
Bitcoin shorts are getting liquidated, with bulls' cost lines coexisting with a massive ETF inflow. Every struggle is just internal reshuffling. Don't shout 'the bull is gone' just because one candlestick got rejected, because when that wall at 82,000 finally breaks—those waiting to short up there will leave the longest footprints beneath the wall.
I inscribed 'bearish dam' on the hexagram board back in April, and it has finally started to break. Some are cutting losses, some are building positions, and some are stuck in anxiety, treading water. Which category do you belong to? Without looking at the candlesticks, just check your own account.
Fortune and blessings to all.
(Subtext: The CLARITY bill passed the Senate at 15:9, BlackRock is still buying, Jane Street is reallocating, Iran is receiving Bitcoin daily, and Strategy is still buying but at a slower pace. Bitcoin hitting 82,000 three times has been thrown back—some use these signals to judge direction, while others use them to gauge fear. The latter is always bearish, while the former waits for a drop.)