The $BTC bearish flag has officially formed, and after nearly 190 days, the daily MA200 has once again delivered a definitive signal for the overall trend.
Currently, this drop seems more like a major trend retracement rather than just a typical short-term correction.
If we confirm a volume breakout to the downside, market sentiment will enter an accelerated release phase.
For this bearish trend, I personally anticipate three stages:
First target: around 60000-62000, which is a key support zone from previous core positions;
Second target: in the 4XXXX range, focusing on whether a stop in the downtrend can be established in the mid-cycle structure;
Third target: in the 3XXXX range, if extreme sentiment is released, further deep retracement cannot be ruled out.
At this stage, the core logic isn't about "how much more can it rise," but rather how the whales are utilizing the bounce to distribute high-position chips continuously.
For short-term trading, we will see some bounces, but they are more likely to be repairs within the bearish rhythm;
For mid to long-term trading, the focus moving forward should be on managing position sizes, controlling leverage, and leaving enough room for risk management.
Currently, this drop seems more like a major trend retracement rather than just a typical short-term correction.
If we confirm a volume breakout to the downside, market sentiment will enter an accelerated release phase.
For this bearish trend, I personally anticipate three stages:
First target: around 60000-62000, which is a key support zone from previous core positions;
Second target: in the 4XXXX range, focusing on whether a stop in the downtrend can be established in the mid-cycle structure;
Third target: in the 3XXXX range, if extreme sentiment is released, further deep retracement cannot be ruled out.
At this stage, the core logic isn't about "how much more can it rise," but rather how the whales are utilizing the bounce to distribute high-position chips continuously.
For short-term trading, we will see some bounces, but they are more likely to be repairs within the bearish rhythm;
For mid to long-term trading, the focus moving forward should be on managing position sizes, controlling leverage, and leaving enough room for risk management.