L2s are leaning way too hard on a single app for revenue.
Looking at the top 5 L2s, 3 chains are pulling in over 50% of their revenue from just one app:
Polygon: Polymarket is hogging 72.2% (backbreaking)
OP Mainnet: EtherFi takes up 68.6%
Mantle: Aave holds 56.4%
Meanwhile, Arbitrum and Base are spreading their revenue a bit better:
Base: Aerodrome accounts for 25.0%
Arbitrum: USD AI makes up 19.7%
This highlights a pretty clear risk: if a chain's revenue is too reliant on one app, then its health is tightly linked to that app's success or failure. Just imagine if the trend for prediction markets fades away—what would Polygon have left?
A strong L2 needs not just high TVL or transaction volume but also a diverse revenue stream from various applications. Over-reliance on one app leads to massive uncertainty for the entire ecosystem.
DeFiLlama - Source: Diego
$ARB
$OP
$POL