About that friend in the square who said, "Fear and Greed Index at 30 is the bottom, just close your eyes and buy the dip at $1,000"—you might only be seeing half the data.
Yes, a Fear and Greed Index of 30 is in the Fear zone, but last week at 25, there were also calls for a bottom, and previously at 28, people were calling it too. Didn't I just call myself out on the 22nd for not holding my observation period and adding $800 at 2180? Now the buy zone is sitting at $2,118, and I'm still in a floating loss. So I’m naturally cautious about the logic of "the index hitting this level means it’s the bottom."
Tonight, while flipping through the data panel, I noticed a detail that made me decide to keep observing: ETH's OI/MC ratio is at 12.53%. This number was around 12.3% last week, and the price has dropped from 2180 to currently 2118, yet OI is still increasing. What does this mean? It indicates that derivatives leverage hasn’t shrunk with the price drop; in fact, it seems like more people are piling in. Longs and shorts are both experiencing liquidations, with longs at $19.3M and shorts at $18.5M, almost symmetrical, suggesting we’re not in a one-sided slaughter but rather both sides are holding their ground.
I've seen this kind of structure before. Last time, OI slowly accumulated, price stayed flat, and then we got hit with a massive red candle that cleared both sides out.
So, my plan for the next 1-2 weeks is pretty simple: I’m leaving that $800 additional position at the buy zone as is, but I’m not bringing in new capital. I’ll keep 20% of my USDT position untouched. If the buy zone drops below $2,009 (the recent 4-hour low), I’ll add one last $500, but I need to see a weekly close confirming the drop instead of just a wick. If it stays sideways, I won’t do anything and will just watch for 10 days.
AAVE is looking interesting though, with an OI/MC of 23.07%, which is the highest in the market, and a funding rate of +0.0070%, not too shabby, but the 4-hour fractal is only at 43.1%. I've mentioned several times that this asset has been carrying a high leverage rate for a while now, so I’ll just keep an eye on it and won’t jump in yet.
So, that friend who called the bottom, did you add to your position? How much did you add? If you just called it out without making a trade, then the Fear and Greed Index is just a number to you. #AAVE
Yes, a Fear and Greed Index of 30 is in the Fear zone, but last week at 25, there were also calls for a bottom, and previously at 28, people were calling it too. Didn't I just call myself out on the 22nd for not holding my observation period and adding $800 at 2180? Now the buy zone is sitting at $2,118, and I'm still in a floating loss. So I’m naturally cautious about the logic of "the index hitting this level means it’s the bottom."
Tonight, while flipping through the data panel, I noticed a detail that made me decide to keep observing: ETH's OI/MC ratio is at 12.53%. This number was around 12.3% last week, and the price has dropped from 2180 to currently 2118, yet OI is still increasing. What does this mean? It indicates that derivatives leverage hasn’t shrunk with the price drop; in fact, it seems like more people are piling in. Longs and shorts are both experiencing liquidations, with longs at $19.3M and shorts at $18.5M, almost symmetrical, suggesting we’re not in a one-sided slaughter but rather both sides are holding their ground.
I've seen this kind of structure before. Last time, OI slowly accumulated, price stayed flat, and then we got hit with a massive red candle that cleared both sides out.
So, my plan for the next 1-2 weeks is pretty simple: I’m leaving that $800 additional position at the buy zone as is, but I’m not bringing in new capital. I’ll keep 20% of my USDT position untouched. If the buy zone drops below $2,009 (the recent 4-hour low), I’ll add one last $500, but I need to see a weekly close confirming the drop instead of just a wick. If it stays sideways, I won’t do anything and will just watch for 10 days.
AAVE is looking interesting though, with an OI/MC of 23.07%, which is the highest in the market, and a funding rate of +0.0070%, not too shabby, but the 4-hour fractal is only at 43.1%. I've mentioned several times that this asset has been carrying a high leverage rate for a while now, so I’ll just keep an eye on it and won’t jump in yet.
So, that friend who called the bottom, did you add to your position? How much did you add? If you just called it out without making a trade, then the Fear and Greed Index is just a number to you. #AAVE