Seven days ago, $ZEC was hovering around $360. Today, it broke below $600, currently trading at $575.
In these seven days, it surged by 89%. However, today it experienced a single-day drop of 7.3%, with a trading volume of $215 million. Just yesterday, it was at $677, and today it sharply broke the key psychological level, the pace is rapid.
Three days ago, I wrote an article posing a question: Is the next drop below $600 for $ZEC a shakeout or the start of distribution? Today marks that time point, so let’s do a phase check.
With a trading volume of $215 million, that’s no small fry. In a typical distribution by the big players, the volume would spike first, causing the price to drop in a stair-step fashion, followed by a rapid contraction in volume. Today’s scenario shows volume still holding while the price has dropped a notch. This feels more like a high-level consolidation rather than a full-on distribution.
But I’ve also seen whales patiently unload their positions. Volume remains high while the price slowly grinds down, and retail traders see the high volume and think it’s a buying opportunity, continuously buying until the whale has finished unloading. With a 89% gain over seven days, it makes sense for them to exit gradually.
The crucial signal right now is the direction of the funding rate. If the futures funding rate turns from positive to negative, it indicates that shorts are starting to build positions, suggesting a higher probability of a shakeout. If the rate remains positive, it means the bulls are still chasing, possibly indicating that the big players are slowly distributing to those chasing highs.
Support is seen in the $540-$550 range, which is a dense volume-price area during the upward move. If $540 holds, the 7-day +89% rally continues. If it breaks, there’s a high likelihood of losing half of that gain.
The whales are the main players, while retail traders are just the supporting cast. Until the whales clearly finish selling, this mid-way adjustment could rebound at any time. With $600 lost, the next verification point is $540.
By the way, a trading volume of $215 million is significant: historically, ZEC's daily trading volume has mostly been below $10 million. The elevated volume over the past seven days is an anomaly, and whether it goes up or down, it’s worth keeping an eye on until the volume returns to normal ranges.
In these seven days, it surged by 89%. However, today it experienced a single-day drop of 7.3%, with a trading volume of $215 million. Just yesterday, it was at $677, and today it sharply broke the key psychological level, the pace is rapid.
Three days ago, I wrote an article posing a question: Is the next drop below $600 for $ZEC a shakeout or the start of distribution? Today marks that time point, so let’s do a phase check.
With a trading volume of $215 million, that’s no small fry. In a typical distribution by the big players, the volume would spike first, causing the price to drop in a stair-step fashion, followed by a rapid contraction in volume. Today’s scenario shows volume still holding while the price has dropped a notch. This feels more like a high-level consolidation rather than a full-on distribution.
But I’ve also seen whales patiently unload their positions. Volume remains high while the price slowly grinds down, and retail traders see the high volume and think it’s a buying opportunity, continuously buying until the whale has finished unloading. With a 89% gain over seven days, it makes sense for them to exit gradually.
The crucial signal right now is the direction of the funding rate. If the futures funding rate turns from positive to negative, it indicates that shorts are starting to build positions, suggesting a higher probability of a shakeout. If the rate remains positive, it means the bulls are still chasing, possibly indicating that the big players are slowly distributing to those chasing highs.
Support is seen in the $540-$550 range, which is a dense volume-price area during the upward move. If $540 holds, the 7-day +89% rally continues. If it breaks, there’s a high likelihood of losing half of that gain.
The whales are the main players, while retail traders are just the supporting cast. Until the whales clearly finish selling, this mid-way adjustment could rebound at any time. With $600 lost, the next verification point is $540.
By the way, a trading volume of $215 million is significant: historically, ZEC's daily trading volume has mostly been below $10 million. The elevated volume over the past seven days is an anomaly, and whether it goes up or down, it’s worth keeping an eye on until the volume returns to normal ranges.