Bitcoin’s Medium-Cycle Fractal Value is now near -0.1758, while BTC trades around $73.6K.

For comparison, on June 11, 2022, the same metric was near -0.1779 with BTC trading around $28.8K, shortly before the sharp June downside continuation.

However, prior major cycle lows formed at much deeper readings:

• Dec 2018: -0.7493

• Nov 2022: -0.7798

In 2022, BTC did not bottom at this fractal level. The final cycle low came roughly 164 days later, after the model had moved substantially lower.

This does not mean the same path must repeat, and cycle models should not be treated as precise timing tools.

The main takeaway is that the current reading resembles a prior downside-risk zone more than a historical cycle-bottom zone.

Source: CryptoQuant

Written by Zizcrypto