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The market's pointing fingers at Strategy for the sell-off, but the data is telling a different story.
Since May 12, when the US CPI exceeded expectations, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow of about $5.4 billion. Meanwhile, what about Strategy? They've actually added $2 billion, almost the only big player holding up against the sell pressure.
The issue isn't with Strategy; it's with inflation.
The real culprit is institutional funds retreating through ETFs. 10x Research predicts that tonight's May CPI could come in at 4.3%, higher than market consensus. If confirmed above 4%, fears of rate hikes or even re-hikes will be reignited, and the sell pressure on risk assets is far from over.
Looking at the on-chain and derivatives side, stablecoins have seen a net outflow of $5.5 billion in the past month, and BTC futures open interest is rapidly shrinking. Funds are still exiting, especially the smart money.
Technically, we’re oversold, and there’s potential for a bounce in the near term. But if inflation data continues to exceed expectations, this rebound is likely just a bull trap and hard to sustain.
Short-term bias is leaning bearish.
What drives the price is ETF fund flow, not the narrative.
If the CPI data unexpectedly comes in below 4%, or if the ETF outflow trend reverses for three consecutive days, we’ll need to reassess this bearish stance.
$BTC
The market's pointing fingers at Strategy for the sell-off, but the data is telling a different story.
Since May 12, when the US CPI exceeded expectations, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow of about $5.4 billion. Meanwhile, what about Strategy? They've actually added $2 billion, almost the only big player holding up against the sell pressure.
The issue isn't with Strategy; it's with inflation.
The real culprit is institutional funds retreating through ETFs. 10x Research predicts that tonight's May CPI could come in at 4.3%, higher than market consensus. If confirmed above 4%, fears of rate hikes or even re-hikes will be reignited, and the sell pressure on risk assets is far from over.
Looking at the on-chain and derivatives side, stablecoins have seen a net outflow of $5.5 billion in the past month, and BTC futures open interest is rapidly shrinking. Funds are still exiting, especially the smart money.
Technically, we’re oversold, and there’s potential for a bounce in the near term. But if inflation data continues to exceed expectations, this rebound is likely just a bull trap and hard to sustain.
Short-term bias is leaning bearish.
What drives the price is ETF fund flow, not the narrative.
If the CPI data unexpectedly comes in below 4%, or if the ETF outflow trend reverses for three consecutive days, we’ll need to reassess this bearish stance.
$BTC