Binance Trade Volume Shows Altcoin Season Ended Before It Even Began

The chart shows that the market has been moving in an altcoin-centric mode for extended periods, rather than a BTC-centric one.

During periods of increased BTC volume, the share of BTC expands upwards from the 10-15% range. Simultaneously, Others volume shrinks. ETH generally remains neutral or slightly retreating. This indicates that the market is reducing risk. During these periods, Altcoin/BTC pairs generally weaken as well. Volatility decreases.

Periods of Increased ETH Volume (Orange Area Expanding): BTC volume remains stable or declines. Others have not yet peaked. ETH share expands towards the 25-35% range. In this case, the market is taking on a level of risk from BTC, but the altcoin season hasn't fully begun yet. The ETH price is outperforming BTC. ETH dominance is increasing. Large L1s are following ETH.

During periods when other major altcoin volume peaks (the green area is dominant), Others volume reaches 60-75%. BTC and ETH volumes are squeezed together simultaneously. This increases the high risk appetite in the market. Capital flows to assets with the highest beta. Sharp increases are observed in altcoins, while BTC generally shows a sideways rise.

This chart shows that volume doesn't follow the price; instead, it prepares the ground for the price's future direction.

Currently, Others volume appears to have significantly decreased. ETH volume is stable upwards, while BTC volume is clearly showing a tendency to recover from its bottom. This proves that the broad-based rally mode in altcoins has ended. We can say that the market is either in an upward phase specifically for ETH or a gradual return to BTC.

In this process, not random altcoins, but coins with high liquidity and a narrative will move. BTC will not experience a sudden dump, but its upward momentum will remain limited. ETH will remain more resilient than BTC. $BTC $ETH