In the SOPR Ratio chart (LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR) with SMA(30), the highlighted section shows a sharp decline in the ratio to low levels, while Bitcoin's price drops from ~$110k-120k highs to around $91k currently.

What does this mean?

The SOPR Ratio compares realized profitability between Long-Term Holders (LTH) and Short-Term Holders (STH).

This significant drop (hitting lows around 1.35 in early December 2025) suggests STH are realizing aggregate losses (STH-SOPR persistently <1), while LTH hold moderate profits without heavy distribution.

It's a classic market reset: weak hands (recent speculators) capitulate, transferring coins at lower costs—often to stronger holders.

Possible Scenario:

With the ~20-25% retracement from 2025 highs and the SOPR Ratio reaching selling exhaustion in the circled area, this could mark the potential start of an accumulation phase.

If the ratio bounces from these lows (as seen in similar resets during 2024 and prior cycles), it may indicate STH returning to profitability (>1) and reduced selling pressure from LTH.

Current price ~$91k acting as key support: A rebound here, supported by improving on-chain flows, could target a retest of $100k-110k in the coming weeks/months.

Downside risk remains if it breaks recent lows (~$85k-88k), potentially extending to $80k for a deeper reset.

In summary: The STH capitulation highlighted may have cleared excess leverage, setting the stage for a possible stage of accumulation.

Watch for a crossover above the SMA(30) as bullish confirmation.

Written by NovAnalytica