$BTC Analysis
Daily bear flag already broke. Both liquidity pockets reacted (≈3% then ≈6%), but sell pressure stayed dominant — meaning those were relief bounces, not reversals.
BTC has now printed a lower low for the first time in ~450 days. That’s structural damage. Bear narrative is accelerating without ever getting a real CEX altseason — ugly setup.
Next high-probability reaction zones from the 2024 mega range:
• $70,000 — VAH
• $67,000 — POC
• $61,000 — VAL
That Feb–Nov 2024 range ($57k–$73k) is now the magnet. Expect bounces there, not trend flips.
If the full bear-flag target plays out, extension sits near $46,000 (≈35–38% from here). Sounds extreme, but BTC already erased ~20% in 6 days. At this pace, that level becomes reachable within couple weeks — not in a straight line, but via violent relief rallies followed by deeper legs down.
Upside will exist. But downside is heavier. This is distribution → repricing, not accumulation.