$BTC broke below $70K.

Stay calm. History rewards the patient

Down ~8% today. ~46% off ATH.

Fear & Greed is pinned at Extreme Fear.

Headlines are all bears.

The Math:

BTC is ~45% below power-law trend value

($123K fair value vs ~$67.7K spot, R² = 0.961 over 15+ years).

At 22 months post-halving, this is the deepest oversold reading yet in a phase where prior cycles were usually overbought.

Z-score: -0.85 (statistically cheap)

In this oversold regime:

• 1Y forward win rate: 100%

• Avg forward return: +100% plus

• 18-month Z vs forward return correlation: -0.745

(about 55% of variance explained)

Mean-reversion half-life: 133 days.

Drift path alone implies ~$111K by mid-2026.

When choosing between panic and math, math wins.

Stay calm. History rewards patience.

BTC
BTCUSDT
64,547.6
-10.10%