BTC hits 200K I change my name

$BTC just touched the weekly EMA 200 for the first time in almost 3 years AND weekly RSI crossed below 30.

While this does usually not mean an immediate reversal, it would mean that we have officially entered the heavily oversold (=re-accumulation) territory.

Crypto fear hits 11.

Welcome to capitulation.

$BTC broke below $70K.

Stay calm. History rewards the patient

Down ~8% today. ~46% off ATH.
Fear & Greed is pinned at Extreme Fear.
Headlines are all bears.

The Math:
BTC is ~45% below power-law trend value
($123K fair value vs ~$67.7K spot, R² = 0.961 over 15+ years).

At 22 months post-halving, this is the deepest oversold reading yet in a phase where prior cycles were usually overbought.

Z-score: -0.85 (statistically cheap)

In this oversold regime:
• 1Y forward win rate: 100%
• Avg forward return: +100% plus
• 18-month Z vs forward return correlation: -0.745
(about 55% of variance explained)

Mean-reversion half-life: 133 days.
Drift path alone implies ~$111K by mid-2026.

When choosing between panic and math, math wins.

Stay calm. History rewards patience.

JUST IN: $65k $BTC

They liquidate at 85k, they buy it all back at 50k, it’s goes back up to 95k they liquidate, buy back at 65k.. best way to stop it is for the crypto bros to actually invest in what they claim to love. Rather than buying and selling… buy and HOLD.

After 2 rounds of buying, the SAFU fund has scooped up a total of 2,630 $BTC, equivalent to 200 million USD.

Notably, SAFU of “Bằng ca”:
> Yesterday it was still around 200 million
> Now it has dropped to 187 million USD
Yet the war chest still has nearly 800 million USD left to wait and accumulate $BTC. 😁

$BTC JUST PRINTED A TEXTBOOK STRUCTURAL SIGNAL.

A massive inverse head & shoulders is in place.
The neckline is being retested exactly where real trends are decided.

Why this matters:
– Long accumulation → pressure builds
– Breakout → controlled pullback
– Retest → confirmation, not weakness

That retest is where doubt peaks.
It’s also where expansions usually start, not end.

If structure holds, upside projections extend far beyond where most are positioned.

$200K sounds crazy now.
So did every major move before it happened.

Big trends never start with comfort.
They start with hesitation.

$BTC just grabbed the thickest long liquidation cluster of the 1 year chart.

305,442 traders were liquidated, the total liquidations comes in at $1.44 billion.

Do you think we will chop in this area now and build a bottom?

$BTC is currently down -45% from its $126k peak.

While it feels heavy, let’s look at the Max Drawdown history of previous cycles. Notice the trend of diminishing severity as the market matures:

2011: -93% (The Wild West)
2014: -86% (The Mt. Gox Era)
2018: -84% (The ICO Bust)
2022: -77% (The Leverage Flush)
2026 (Now): -45% ...so far.

Though I don't think it has a big probability, if we follow the historical trend of shallower bottoms, a -70% drop would be the maturation target.

The big question: Is $67k the local bottom, or are we just warming up for a deeper winter?
❄️🧵👇

$BTC dropped below 70k, while the market is boring what should I do?

1. Build a trading bot using OpenClaw
No single line of code, everything is thanks to ChatGPT, Grok, OpenClaw to produce a bot that runs like in the picture below. For now the bot is performing quite well and following the trend correctly in recent times. But maybe the market is running quite comfortably so the bot is doing good. I'm also focusing on learning more about logics, trading tactics, ways to improve the bot instead of focusing too early on profit.

2. Add LP on Abstract
No matter how low $ETH price goes, just accept it because I'm also holding around 1 ETH. Instead of just holding without any cash flow in and out, I add the ETH/USDC pair on Aborean. I set range around +-8%, with 1.9k$ amount, IL falls into 40$. If within 1.5 days it hasn't gone out of range yet, I'll get this fee portion, the rest will be profit. Sounds good but in this phase going out of range is also quite easy, so I just add and pray for sideways.

3. DCA ETH
Every day I still regularly set aside 10$ to DCA ETH on Binance. In case the market drops too deep, for example if it halves from this price again, I will collateralize the ETH I already bought, borrow USDT and continue DCA.

4. Continue researching meme trading bot
After finishing the steps above, if I still have spare time, I will continue exploring ways to setup, build a meme trading bot using AI. Preparing for the next meme seasons if they come.

This phase is really tough, but just try to find ways to make money and stay in the game. Otherwise after this run, many brothers will probably leave the market for good...

ALERT: $BTC IS NOW BELOW ITS 2021 HIGH

ALERT: $BTC IS NOW BELOW ITS 2021 HIGH

$BTC

Main support zone reached. Confluence of OB + 2021 ATHs (November and April) + 2024 ATH. Most alts also at HTF support.

Lots of liquidity above, and shorts are aggressive here. Sentiment can't be more negative.

There's no better time for a strong bounce (short squeeze)

$BTC let's nail the Bitcoin bottom today.

We still miss the main projection target at 66335, because was far, I rounded to 66350, but seen the market, let's be precise.

The 4H chart standard deviation 3 on Bollinger Bands is just there at 66350, it will go lower if we dip, but then we bounce and the wick will nail it.

Go all in at 66350 would be to have a risk up to 56K 5 years moving average area of around 15%.

Too much for this bet?

$2.5BILLION IN CRYPTO OPTIONS SET TO EXPIRE TOMORROW

Deribit reports over $2.5B in options expiring tomorrow with $2.15B in $BTC notional, with max pain at $82K and bearish positioning concentrated in the $80K–$90K range.

$ETH notional stands at $408M, where max pain sits at $2,550, and positions cluster in the mid-$2,000s.

Bitcoin bear market drawdowns have a clear pattern:

2011: -93%

2015: -86%

2018: -84%

2022: -77%

Every cycle, the drawdown gets smaller as the market matures.

Following this trend, the 2026 bottom should be around -70% from the $126K ATH. That puts us at $38K.

Good luck buying your bottom at $69K, $60K and $50K. I’ll see you at $38K.

$BTC history IS repeating...
Cycles rhyme when positioning resets the same way.

JUST IN: $BTC daily RSI is now LOWER than the bottom of the 2022 Bear market

The bounce is on the way///

$BTC FALLS UNDER PREVIOUS ALL TIME HIGH

- The 4-year cycle lives!
- The parabolic run is dead though...
😭
Losing prior ATHs shakes sentiment more than structure. The key question is whether price finds acceptance below or reclaims fast — that usually defines the next phase

I’m going in first, bros, you guys take your time hesitating.
$

JUST IN: $BTC falls below the 2021 all time high to $68,860.

IF YOU HODL THROUGH THIS, YOU'RE A LEGEND
✊