produmanni 1

$btc

Only one correct decision per year, which allows doubling the deposit, can turn $1000 into $1,000,000 in just 10 iterations.

For some, 10 years may seem like a very long time, but this is not about foolishly hoping only for this method of enrichment.

Set aside an amount, assign it a task, and forget about this money; just do what needs to be done.

I see no simpler way to double a deposit in a couple of months than to buy a "yes" bet on the "below 55k" stock in the "What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?" market on Polymarket or any other prediction market.

Good luck!

$BTC

The close of yesterday's daily candle was above the level - we held it. Right now, the quotes have dropped significantly. If we consolidate below $80,300, I interpret this as a signal for a drop towards $74,000 initially.

Regarding entry points: in the range of $80,300 - $81,300, a 4-hour SNR block will likely form by evening, which in turn acts as a VC from the daily RDRB.

A break of $79,120 breaks the upward structure of the daily period, which, again, will trigger a correction to at least $74,000.

Fractals at the local maximums of $82,450 and $82,811, if taken out, represent an acceptable risk. Since they will be taken out simultaneously, I place the stop-loss under the first one.

$BTC

right now, a cluster of indicators is stacked in one block - $74,000–$73,000 for or against.

right now, a cluster of indicators is stacked in one block - $74,000–$73,000.

price will gravitate there one way or another, but the close is what matters. closing above those levels on the test is a sign that the upside is brewing. if the reaction is weak, with no hold, we drop deep.

$BTC In its usual way, the setup gets confirmed on the second day of the week. That’s why I skipped the local review yesterday and waited for today.

At the local high, between $81395 and $82811, price formed an RB with absorption. The liquidity here wasn’t swept, and no inefficiency was cleared, but the zone absolutely reeks of manipulation. For me, that block is a valid daily price action element ↓

After that RB, with confirmation on the x‑1 timeframe, price dropped toward the daily elements in a bearish trajectory. The first FVG between $80640 and $80480 got inverted, and then price reacted off the second one, $79750 - $79420, forming an RB in the range $79975 - $79120. That squeezed price between $82811 and $79120.

Once price hit the second 1D FVG, a 4H VC came in, pushing price toward the next daily element. The first of those was the already inverted FVG at $80640 - $80480. Key point here: when a strong order flow is broken, and the first valid element fails to give back any reaction, price usually tries to correct about half the impulse. That’s exactly what happened. The inverted FVG did nothing, and the local high RB became the main target ↓

From Sunday night to Monday morning, a strange manipulation pushed things around. That area got over‑run later, and the long wick prevented a 4H FVG from forming as a clear VC out of it. I didn’t wait and opened a short around $81340. A more conservative approach would have required an actual VC to form, and that only printed in the night from Monday to Tuesday ↓

Over the last two days, a fairly big liquidity cascade has built up on the 4H timeframe. Its sweep will let me push the position to breakeven, give fuel to the bears, and potentially form an RDRB. I’ve already laid out how I feel about that element. But the textbooks do treat it as a valid VC. In the context of a 1D VC, that’s a narrative toward $70,000 and lower, or even a full clean‑out of everything accumulated over the last three months.

I really like the line that the market has ruined more Jews than the Holocaust. The market is irrational, but trading is still about finding logic and patterns. The truth, as usual, sits in the middle. The market can take an irrational shape and stay that way longer than anyone is willing to put up with. You can be right about “up” or “down” forever and still lose forever. $BTC That’s exactly what BTC has been doing over the last 50 days. That’s where all these stop-losses come from. But the right move is this: try to find a new entry for the downside. It may look too simple. It isn’t. Following a hard pattern that runs through the entire history of the asset is smarter than trying to stand in front of it.

Time? | Weekly $BTC review and trading plan for the coming week

Iran actually put the post-hegemon in its place. Funny how Iran’s nuclear rollback dropped all the way to sixth place, getting shoved aside by sanctions relief and the big gift wrapped up as the Strait of Hormuz. BTC has reacted the same way from the start of the Middle East conflict, up on peace headlines and down on escalation. Obviously there’s no peace in the air there - Iran is too strong to cave to American demands, and the US can’t accept Iran’s terms. That gets layered over BTC’s own cycle, which has only burned through 67% of the bear phase.

Sell in May and go away?
Historically, no bear-market phase has printed two straight green monthly candles. On average, there are only three of them in the whole phase, and only in the last cycle did two come back-to-back. May opened at $76,300, and as long as price stays above that level, the candle is on the bulls’ side. As everyone knows - history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes just fine ↓

I already pointed to the narrative indicator. I’ll just remind you that a close above or below this moving average predicts continuation pretty well. Look at the chart. As a rule, on the two-week chart, a bear cycle does not hold above the moving average. That only happened at the end of the last cycle - two months before the low, price held above the level, but then a brutal 30% dump followed and printed the cycle bottom. After that close, price rose about 10%. A similar case happened in the 2013-2015 downcycle, when acceptance above the moving average happened only inside the reversal into a bull phase, and seven months later a squeeze took out the low, leaving nothing but a wick behind. If we’re talking fundamental cycle timing, there are still at least four months of downside ahead, with a first target below $50,000. More than that, continuation lower implies one more bloody impulse - remember the start of this post.

I dre....

$BTC

One more time, because this matters.

There’s one crucial, and more importantly unbreakable, pattern. Until proven otherwise, you don’t ignore it:

→ From the 2013 cycle peak to the 2015 low took 406 days.
→ From the 2017 cycle peak to the 2018 low took 364 days.
→ From the 2021 cycle peak to the 2022 low took 378 days.

There are other patterns too, like low to peak:
→ From the 2015 low to the 2017 high took 1064 days.
→ From the 2018 low to the 2021 high took 1071 days.
→ From the 2022 low to the 2025 high took 1043 days.

The spread is only 28 days when you compare the 2015-2017 cycle with 2022-2025, and the median is basically the same.

I think it’s stupid to argue with the fact that once BTC hit $126,000, a bear cycle started, and 66% of it is already behind us.

So, using a few mathematical models, you get a window from September 4, 2026 to October 21, 2026. Add a bit of error margin, and you end up with the simple September-October range this year. Until proven otherwise, ignoring that is stupid.

Why is $BTC BTC going up?

Since the last update, a few important things happened, including a bullish month-end close. So let’s rebuild the whole chain.

→ The move down from the $126,000 peak was born there, and it fits the asset’s cycle perfectly. According to that cycle, the bear market, meaning the search for the cycle low, should last at least until the first days of September. If you’re arguing with a pattern that runs through BTC’s entire history, you’re being stupid. The main HTF narrative is clearly bearish.

If you take the move from peak to bottom as 100%, only 66% has been done so far.

Sure, you can claim the cycle is just broken. That’s bullshit until proven otherwise.

The worst thing you can do in trading is argue with history and statistics.

→ The decline narrative from the peak was targeting a monthly element. Over time, that turned into a full-blown bearish order flow on the 1M timeframe. The latest downside target was below $67 ,000, where price reacted and has now been building upward momentum for the third month already. That reaction formed a 1W VC, which means the delivery into the monthly element is now being read on the way up. That’s exactly the area we’re testing right now - the FVG between $79,390 and $83,755.

→ If you ignore cycle timing, which you shouldn’t, the trend is still bullish. Until a seller 1W VC comes in, price can keep climbing, and the next target is close to $100,000. I still don’t treat that as the main scenario. BTC cycle timing is a 100% indicator. And with the way things are unfolding now, the reversal in the right direction should be violent - something has to break. Maybe “sell in May and go away” ends up being the sensible move. Geopolitics, geo-economics, all of it is in the mix.