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We Opened This Report to Everyone. Bitcoin Was $112,000. Today it’s $63,000.
On October 22, 2025, when Bitcoin was trading near $112,000, we published Bear Market Watch and removed the paywall.
We did so because our on-chain and derivatives models were deteriorating rapidly. The 21-week EMA had broken. The short-term holder's cost basis was under pressure.
At the time, most investors were still bullish.
Today, Bitcoin trades at $63,000.
The difference wasn’t access to data, it was interpretation.
In that public report, we outlined:
• Why losing the 21-week trend signal historically marks regime shifts
• How short-term holder realized price becomes a liquidation trigger
• Why weakening capital inflows precede broader drawdowns
• Why institutional discipline shortens cycles — but accelerates resets
We warned that this phase would determine whether Bitcoin resets, or enters a deeper bear structure.
That reset is now unfolding.
The report remains public because protecting capital matters more than clicks. But what was free then is now confirmation of what disciplined positioning achieves.
Premium subscribers didn’t just read the warning.
They received continuous tactical updates, positioning adjustments, and options strategies to manage downside risk as the market deteriorated.
Turning points are where performance is made, or destroyed.
If you want access to the same models and tactical frameworks before the next major inflection, that’s what 10x Research Premium is built for.
Because in crypto, surviving the bear market is what allows you to own the next bull market.
If disciplined positioning and risk management improved returns by even 10% in a year, on a $100,000 portfolio that represents $10,000 in performance.
The point isn’t to promise a specific return.
The point is that avoiding major drawdowns, and positioning correctly during inflection points, compounds meaningfully over time.
Read the full October 22 report here: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bear-market-watch-what-smart-money-is-seeing-in-bitcoin-s-data
On October 22, 2025, when Bitcoin was trading near $112,000, we published Bear Market Watch and removed the paywall.
We did so because our on-chain and derivatives models were deteriorating rapidly. The 21-week EMA had broken. The short-term holder's cost basis was under pressure.
At the time, most investors were still bullish.
Today, Bitcoin trades at $63,000.
The difference wasn’t access to data, it was interpretation.
In that public report, we outlined:
• Why losing the 21-week trend signal historically marks regime shifts
• How short-term holder realized price becomes a liquidation trigger
• Why weakening capital inflows precede broader drawdowns
• Why institutional discipline shortens cycles — but accelerates resets
We warned that this phase would determine whether Bitcoin resets, or enters a deeper bear structure.
That reset is now unfolding.
The report remains public because protecting capital matters more than clicks. But what was free then is now confirmation of what disciplined positioning achieves.
Premium subscribers didn’t just read the warning.
They received continuous tactical updates, positioning adjustments, and options strategies to manage downside risk as the market deteriorated.
Turning points are where performance is made, or destroyed.
If you want access to the same models and tactical frameworks before the next major inflection, that’s what 10x Research Premium is built for.
Because in crypto, surviving the bear market is what allows you to own the next bull market.
If disciplined positioning and risk management improved returns by even 10% in a year, on a $100,000 portfolio that represents $10,000 in performance.
The point isn’t to promise a specific return.
The point is that avoiding major drawdowns, and positioning correctly during inflection points, compounds meaningfully over time.
Read the full October 22 report here: https://update.10xresearch.com/p/bear-market-watch-what-smart-money-is-seeing-in-bitcoin-s-data
Kaspa — A delay to the Toccata hard fork (now June 5–20) created short-term uncertainty, sending KAS down 8.2% despite long-term ZK upgrade significance.
Pudgy Penguins — A 712.4M token unlock drove a 10.4% drop, with a Manchester City partnership providing only marginal sentiment support.
Sui — Despite strong catalysts (Grayscale GSUI, gasless transfers, CME futures launch), monthly unlock pressure kept SUI down 10.6%.
NEAR — Arthur Hayes naming NEAR his "holy trinity" triggered a 30%+ single-day spike with $9M+ in short liquidations, driving a 48.6% weekly gain.
Pendle — Despite STRC-linked TVL surpassing $318M and token emissions ending, broader DeFi weakness kept Pendle down 14.2%.
Monero — The FCMP++ privacy upgrade strengthened anonymity, but incoming EU AMLR custodial bans by 2027 remain a structural ceiling; broadly flat at –1.6%.
Filecoin — Rising enterprise SSD prices and the mainnet launch of Filecoin Onchain Cloud position FIL as a cost-efficient AI storage layer; up 6.9%.
Hyperliquid — SpaceX pre-IPO perpetuals drove record volume, a new ATH, and $40M in Bitwise BHYP ETF inflows, pushing HYPE up 9.2%.
Cosmos — A $6.4M raise by co-founder Ethan Buchman's startup Cycles provided the primary catalyst for ATOM's 6.3% gain.
Zcash — Despite a sharp 18.9% weekly pullback from the 650%+ rally, structural catalysts including Grayscale's spot ZEC ETF filing and 30% shielded supply remain intact.
Render — RENDER's inclusion in the "Made-in-USA" AI token rotation narrative alongside NEAR and WLD drove an 11.7% gain on DePIN/AI compute momentum.
Ondo — An anticipated SEC innovation exemption and DTCC partnership validate Ondo's 60%+ tokenized stock market share, though the week was overshadowed by founder Nathan Allman's unexpected passing.
Worldcoin — Eightco Holdings disclosing a 283M WLD position and an upcoming 43% emissions cut on July 24 drove WLD up 38% on institutional accumulation and supply catalyst conviction.
Pudgy Penguins — A 712.4M token unlock drove a 10.4% drop, with a Manchester City partnership providing only marginal sentiment support.
Sui — Despite strong catalysts (Grayscale GSUI, gasless transfers, CME futures launch), monthly unlock pressure kept SUI down 10.6%.
NEAR — Arthur Hayes naming NEAR his "holy trinity" triggered a 30%+ single-day spike with $9M+ in short liquidations, driving a 48.6% weekly gain.
Pendle — Despite STRC-linked TVL surpassing $318M and token emissions ending, broader DeFi weakness kept Pendle down 14.2%.
Monero — The FCMP++ privacy upgrade strengthened anonymity, but incoming EU AMLR custodial bans by 2027 remain a structural ceiling; broadly flat at –1.6%.
Filecoin — Rising enterprise SSD prices and the mainnet launch of Filecoin Onchain Cloud position FIL as a cost-efficient AI storage layer; up 6.9%.
Hyperliquid — SpaceX pre-IPO perpetuals drove record volume, a new ATH, and $40M in Bitwise BHYP ETF inflows, pushing HYPE up 9.2%.
Cosmos — A $6.4M raise by co-founder Ethan Buchman's startup Cycles provided the primary catalyst for ATOM's 6.3% gain.
Zcash — Despite a sharp 18.9% weekly pullback from the 650%+ rally, structural catalysts including Grayscale's spot ZEC ETF filing and 30% shielded supply remain intact.
Render — RENDER's inclusion in the "Made-in-USA" AI token rotation narrative alongside NEAR and WLD drove an 11.7% gain on DePIN/AI compute momentum.
Ondo — An anticipated SEC innovation exemption and DTCC partnership validate Ondo's 60%+ tokenized stock market share, though the week was overshadowed by founder Nathan Allman's unexpected passing.
Worldcoin — Eightco Holdings disclosing a 283M WLD position and an upcoming 43% emissions cut on July 24 drove WLD up 38% on institutional accumulation and supply catalyst conviction.
The Narrative Collapsed and Ethereum Is Cheap. Is ETH finally a buy?
The Ethereum options market is seeing unusually large put buying activity, with the $1,800 and $1,900 strikes attracting flows running approximately five times above normal levels.
Since issuing our high-conviction short on May 16, 2026, Ethereum has declined 10%. But our bearish thesis predates that call.
On October 31, 2025, with ETH trading at $3,800, we identified Ethereum as the smarter hedge.
Prices have since fallen 47% (see also our interview from November). The thesis was always fundamental.
The market is simply catching up.
In early April 2026, with Ethereum trading near $2,000, we revisited our fundamental view, examining whether the conditions for a buy had emerged and what the real structural issues were.
Today, we return to that question. Ethereum is cheap.
But cheap is not the same as a buying opportunity.
Fundamentals ultimately determine price; marketing narratives can only sustain a divergence for so long before reality reasserts itself.
We have seen that cycle play out once already.
So what has changed? Let us approach Ethereum from a different angle entirely. See our full report below.
The Ethereum options market is seeing unusually large put buying activity, with the $1,800 and $1,900 strikes attracting flows running approximately five times above normal levels.
Since issuing our high-conviction short on May 16, 2026, Ethereum has declined 10%. But our bearish thesis predates that call.
On October 31, 2025, with ETH trading at $3,800, we identified Ethereum as the smarter hedge.
Prices have since fallen 47% (see also our interview from November). The thesis was always fundamental.
The market is simply catching up.
In early April 2026, with Ethereum trading near $2,000, we revisited our fundamental view, examining whether the conditions for a buy had emerged and what the real structural issues were.
Today, we return to that question. Ethereum is cheap.
But cheap is not the same as a buying opportunity.
Fundamentals ultimately determine price; marketing narratives can only sustain a divergence for so long before reality reasserts itself.
We have seen that cycle play out once already.
So what has changed? Let us approach Ethereum from a different angle entirely. See our full report below.
Bitcoin Miners Lead the Charge as AI Infrastructure Spending Reshapes the Sector
Our 10x Research crypto equity basket index is up +56% year to date while Bitcoin is down -17%.
This crypto equity reports shows which stocks are worth owning.
Bitcoin pulled back this week as surging Treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations drove institutional de-risking from non-yielding assets, with BlackRock's ETF recording notable outflows.
While BTC struggled, the mining and AI infrastructure sector surged, KEEL (+30%), CIFR (+29%), IREN (+29%), WULF (+24%), and HUT (+22%) all posted exceptional gains driven by landmark hyperscaler deals, campus acquisitions, and fresh institutional backing.
The week's standout catalysts: IREN's $1.6B Dell Blackwell systems purchase, TeraWulf's 1 GW Kentucky campus acquisition, and Hut 8's $9.8B Texas lease all signaled that the Bitcoin miner-to-AI-infrastructure pivot is accelerating rapidly.
On the macro side, gold softened as optimism over a ceasefire in Iran and India's record import duty hike dampened safe-haven demand, while the 10-year yield eased to 4.47–4.50% ahead of the critical PCE print and new Fed Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting on June 16–17.
Subscribers continue below for our full stock-by-stock breakdown, signal changes, and CIO commentary.
Full report, link in the comments section.
Our 10x Research crypto equity basket index is up +56% year to date while Bitcoin is down -17%.
This crypto equity reports shows which stocks are worth owning.
Bitcoin pulled back this week as surging Treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations drove institutional de-risking from non-yielding assets, with BlackRock's ETF recording notable outflows.
While BTC struggled, the mining and AI infrastructure sector surged, KEEL (+30%), CIFR (+29%), IREN (+29%), WULF (+24%), and HUT (+22%) all posted exceptional gains driven by landmark hyperscaler deals, campus acquisitions, and fresh institutional backing.
The week's standout catalysts: IREN's $1.6B Dell Blackwell systems purchase, TeraWulf's 1 GW Kentucky campus acquisition, and Hut 8's $9.8B Texas lease all signaled that the Bitcoin miner-to-AI-infrastructure pivot is accelerating rapidly.
On the macro side, gold softened as optimism over a ceasefire in Iran and India's record import duty hike dampened safe-haven demand, while the 10-year yield eased to 4.47–4.50% ahead of the critical PCE print and new Fed Chair Warsh's first FOMC meeting on June 16–17.
Subscribers continue below for our full stock-by-stock breakdown, signal changes, and CIO commentary.
Full report, link in the comments section.
Beyond Bitcoin: Where the Real Opportunities Are in a Consolidating Crypto Market
Bitcoin has triggered a bearish signal, and most altcoins are bleeding.
A few notable exceptions stand out and those tokens are showing idiosyncratic upside momentum driven by project-specific catalysts, and several other compelling setups exist across the altcoin landscape.
Underneath the surface, a powerful rotation is underway, and three specific trades delivered 30–50% gains this week while the rest of the market went sideways.
25 tokens are worth mentioning in this week's update, uncorrelated opportunities with their own news flow.
We analyze their moving-average signals, key catalysts, and our full CIO assessment of where the real opportunities lie in a market that rewards selectivity over broad exposure.
Our 10x Model Altcoin Portfolio is up +20.7% since launch.
Here's what we own, what we're watching, and what we'd avoid.
This report is part of our Trading Signals publication and is available to Trading Signals subscribers.
Continue reading below for the full report - link in the comments section.
Bitcoin has triggered a bearish signal, and most altcoins are bleeding.
A few notable exceptions stand out and those tokens are showing idiosyncratic upside momentum driven by project-specific catalysts, and several other compelling setups exist across the altcoin landscape.
Underneath the surface, a powerful rotation is underway, and three specific trades delivered 30–50% gains this week while the rest of the market went sideways.
25 tokens are worth mentioning in this week's update, uncorrelated opportunities with their own news flow.
We analyze their moving-average signals, key catalysts, and our full CIO assessment of where the real opportunities lie in a market that rewards selectivity over broad exposure.
Our 10x Model Altcoin Portfolio is up +20.7% since launch.
Here's what we own, what we're watching, and what we'd avoid.
This report is part of our Trading Signals publication and is available to Trading Signals subscribers.
Continue reading below for the full report - link in the comments section.
Our 10x Research Space Basket +35% Since April. We map the Full Ecosystem.
This is our 7th report on the opportunity in the space economy, and as the SpaceX IPO narrative gains momentum, so does our basket.
Since we launched the 10x Research Space Index on April 3, 2026 (see report), it is up 35%.
The correlation between SpaceX and our basket is not a coincidence: our regression analysis shows an R² of 0.87, making it one of the cleanest ways to express the trade in a listed vehicle.
Last week, we added the SpaceX supplier bucket.
That group is up approximately 30% in a single week.
This week, we are adding a few more stocks.
The attached report maps the complete space ecosystem across nine categories, from pure-play operators and satellite connectivity names through to SpaceX suppliers, raw materials, specialty alloys, and electronics.
This is the full value chain, not just the headline beta plays. A SpaceX IPO re-rates the entire stack.
Read the full report - link in the comments section:.
This is our 7th report on the opportunity in the space economy, and as the SpaceX IPO narrative gains momentum, so does our basket.
Since we launched the 10x Research Space Index on April 3, 2026 (see report), it is up 35%.
The correlation between SpaceX and our basket is not a coincidence: our regression analysis shows an R² of 0.87, making it one of the cleanest ways to express the trade in a listed vehicle.
Last week, we added the SpaceX supplier bucket.
That group is up approximately 30% in a single week.
This week, we are adding a few more stocks.
The attached report maps the complete space ecosystem across nine categories, from pure-play operators and satellite connectivity names through to SpaceX suppliers, raw materials, specialty alloys, and electronics.
This is the full value chain, not just the headline beta plays. A SpaceX IPO re-rates the entire stack.
Read the full report - link in the comments section:.
MicroStrategy Has Six Months. Bitcoin Has a Problem. Here Is Where the Returns Are Now.
Are the wheels coming off, one by one?
MicroStrategy's signal that it may sell Bitcoin, with only six months of cash remaining to cover dividend obligations, strongly suggests the company will no longer serve as a meaningful buyer.
That removes one of the most visible and consistent demand drivers of the past several years.
So where should investors look now, and how has the technical picture shifted?
Below, we address both our short- and longer-term views, and show where returns are still being generated even as Bitcoin becomes a headwind.
-> Our altcoin model portfolio is up 24% over the past seven weeks (here)
-> Our crypto equity picks have returned an average of +28% over the same period.
-> (Our thematic cross-asset space stocks portfolio has also returned +35% since April 3, 2026).
The opportunity has not disappeared, but finding it requires more creativity and a willingness to look beyond the obvious.
In today's report, we show our subscribers where the opportunities are...
Are the wheels coming off, one by one?
MicroStrategy's signal that it may sell Bitcoin, with only six months of cash remaining to cover dividend obligations, strongly suggests the company will no longer serve as a meaningful buyer.
That removes one of the most visible and consistent demand drivers of the past several years.
So where should investors look now, and how has the technical picture shifted?
Below, we address both our short- and longer-term views, and show where returns are still being generated even as Bitcoin becomes a headwind.
-> Our altcoin model portfolio is up 24% over the past seven weeks (here)
-> Our crypto equity picks have returned an average of +28% over the same period.
-> (Our thematic cross-asset space stocks portfolio has also returned +35% since April 3, 2026).
The opportunity has not disappeared, but finding it requires more creativity and a willingness to look beyond the obvious.
In today's report, we show our subscribers where the opportunities are...
Dead Money? Five Strategies Left for Bitcoin Treasury Companies at Steep Discounts
When Grayscale's GBTC was trading at a 47% discount in December 2022, we flagged it as an extraordinary opportunity.
Investors could effectively buy Bitcoin at below $10,000 per coin.
Closed-end funds routinely trade at a discount to NAV, but this one was so extreme that the investment thesis required only a single modest assumption:
-> that GBTC would eventually convert to an ETF, within a 24-year window, if necessary, at which point the discount would collapse to zero and more than offset the 2% annual management fee.
That thesis played out. The discount narrowed sharply a year later as ETF approval came into view, and the following period saw dramatic NAV expansion across similar structures.
Investors had convinced themselves that TradFi crypto wrappers were themselves a leveraged bet on the underlying asset, a premium on top of a premium.
They were not. These structures behave more like options: when volatility is elevated, implied value inflates; when volatility compresses, it deflates.
This is why, a year ago, we warned that MicroStrategy's NAV premium would compress sharply, a call made when the stock was trading at $400, just as Bitcoin's volatility began its sustained decline.
By August 2025, we went further, cautioning that NAV premiums across Bitcoin and Ethereum treasury vehicles could flip negative entirely, with many investors facing steep losses.
Those losses have arrived.
But the picture is beginning to shift again, and for opportunistically well-positioned management teams, the dislocation now presents a fresh opportunity.
A single announcement could double your money.
Which of the five will it be?
As before, the gains will likely come at the expense of investors who do not understand what they own.
Full report for our subscribers, link in bio.
When Grayscale's GBTC was trading at a 47% discount in December 2022, we flagged it as an extraordinary opportunity.
Investors could effectively buy Bitcoin at below $10,000 per coin.
Closed-end funds routinely trade at a discount to NAV, but this one was so extreme that the investment thesis required only a single modest assumption:
-> that GBTC would eventually convert to an ETF, within a 24-year window, if necessary, at which point the discount would collapse to zero and more than offset the 2% annual management fee.
That thesis played out. The discount narrowed sharply a year later as ETF approval came into view, and the following period saw dramatic NAV expansion across similar structures.
Investors had convinced themselves that TradFi crypto wrappers were themselves a leveraged bet on the underlying asset, a premium on top of a premium.
They were not. These structures behave more like options: when volatility is elevated, implied value inflates; when volatility compresses, it deflates.
This is why, a year ago, we warned that MicroStrategy's NAV premium would compress sharply, a call made when the stock was trading at $400, just as Bitcoin's volatility began its sustained decline.
By August 2025, we went further, cautioning that NAV premiums across Bitcoin and Ethereum treasury vehicles could flip negative entirely, with many investors facing steep losses.
Those losses have arrived.
But the picture is beginning to shift again, and for opportunistically well-positioned management teams, the dislocation now presents a fresh opportunity.
A single announcement could double your money.
Which of the five will it be?
As before, the gains will likely come at the expense of investors who do not understand what they own.
Full report for our subscribers, link in bio.
Three weeks ago the Bitcoin bull case looked intact. This week, our trend model flipped to bear.
The trigger wasn't macro. It was MicroStrategy, specifically, Michael Saylor's signal that the company could eventually sell some of its 843,000 BTC. That single shift in narrative has driven $2.7 billion in ETF outflows since May 7, unwinding what had been one of the most concentrated institutional long positions in crypto market history.
This week's 10x Research Crypto Kickoff maps out exactly what has changed and what it means for positioning:
→ Bitcoin ETF flows are now in the 4th percentile,historically extreme selling pressure
→ Ethereum dominance has fallen below 10% for the first time since July 2025, and our ETH short call from last week delivered a 4.6% decline
→ Implied volatility has compressed to near-historic lows, making options the preferred expression of any directional view over spot
→ Stablecoin minting is in the 8th percentile, no fresh capital is entering the market
→ The market has fully priced in one Fed rate hike by year-end, with a second approaching for 2027, and contrary to popular belief, inflation is negatively correlated with Bitcoin returns
The highest-conviction trades right now: long Bitcoin versus short Ethereum as the relative-value anchor, with Hyperliquid and ZEC as the names with genuine upside momentum.
The full report is live for subscribers. Link in comments.
The trigger wasn't macro. It was MicroStrategy, specifically, Michael Saylor's signal that the company could eventually sell some of its 843,000 BTC. That single shift in narrative has driven $2.7 billion in ETF outflows since May 7, unwinding what had been one of the most concentrated institutional long positions in crypto market history.
This week's 10x Research Crypto Kickoff maps out exactly what has changed and what it means for positioning:
→ Bitcoin ETF flows are now in the 4th percentile,historically extreme selling pressure
→ Ethereum dominance has fallen below 10% for the first time since July 2025, and our ETH short call from last week delivered a 4.6% decline
→ Implied volatility has compressed to near-historic lows, making options the preferred expression of any directional view over spot
→ Stablecoin minting is in the 8th percentile, no fresh capital is entering the market
→ The market has fully priced in one Fed rate hike by year-end, with a second approaching for 2027, and contrary to popular belief, inflation is negatively correlated with Bitcoin returns
The highest-conviction trades right now: long Bitcoin versus short Ethereum as the relative-value anchor, with Hyperliquid and ZEC as the names with genuine upside momentum.
The full report is live for subscribers. Link in comments.
Crypto Stocks: Understand What is Moving in the Market and Why.
Marathon Digital (MARA is above the 7-day moving average -> bullish, and is above the 30-day moving average -> bullish, with 1 week change of +2%) downward pressure was briefly exacerbated by SEC filings revealing that top executives, including the chief executive officer and general counsel, executed automated stock sales.
The stock managed a partial recovery as long-term bulls rallied behind the company’s aggressive strategic pivot into artificial intelligence infrastructure, highlighted by a major power facility acquisition.
Additional support emerged toward the end of the week as the company successfully concluded its senior secured notes consent solicitation, stabilizing near-term liquidity concerns.
Full coverage across 24 crypto stocks. Understand what is moving and why and how to position yourself for the next move. See our latest CIO Strategy report.
Marathon Digital (MARA is above the 7-day moving average -> bullish, and is above the 30-day moving average -> bullish, with 1 week change of +2%) downward pressure was briefly exacerbated by SEC filings revealing that top executives, including the chief executive officer and general counsel, executed automated stock sales.
The stock managed a partial recovery as long-term bulls rallied behind the company’s aggressive strategic pivot into artificial intelligence infrastructure, highlighted by a major power facility acquisition.
Additional support emerged toward the end of the week as the company successfully concluded its senior secured notes consent solicitation, stabilizing near-term liquidity concerns.
Full coverage across 24 crypto stocks. Understand what is moving and why and how to position yourself for the next move. See our latest CIO Strategy report.
SpaceX IPO Playbook: 7 Supply Chain Stocks Riding the IPO Wave
The Space Economy is entering its most explosive phase yet.
While the broader markets search for direction, the Space ETF has surged +20% since our April 3 report, fueled by a relentless rally in high-beta, pure-play space stocks that are up +27% in the last month alone. But the real firestorm is brewing beneath the surface.
The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO is expected within the month.
As the company prepares to raise a massive $70 billion from investors, media exposure will reach a fever pitch.
Institutional appetite is already boiling over: the SpaceX tracking asset on Hyperliquid is trading at a staggering 36% premium to its projected $1.75 trillion IPO valuation, strongly signaling a massive first-day pop when the shares officially begin trading.
To help our premium subscribers navigate and profit from this historic event, we have drastically expanded our flagship Chart Book to 31 charts covering 27 companies.
Most importantly, we have cracked open a brand-new, sixth investment category: The Hidden SpaceX Supply Chain.
Because SpaceX rarely discloses its vendor partnerships, these stocks have largely flown under Wall Street’s radar.
If you are waiting for the IPO to buy SpaceX, you are already too late.
The real institutional "playbook" is positioning in the critical component suppliers right now before the retail crowd connects the dots.
(pdf chart book included with 30 charts - link in bio to our latest 10x What Matters report)
The Space Economy is entering its most explosive phase yet.
While the broader markets search for direction, the Space ETF has surged +20% since our April 3 report, fueled by a relentless rally in high-beta, pure-play space stocks that are up +27% in the last month alone. But the real firestorm is brewing beneath the surface.
The highly anticipated SpaceX IPO is expected within the month.
As the company prepares to raise a massive $70 billion from investors, media exposure will reach a fever pitch.
Institutional appetite is already boiling over: the SpaceX tracking asset on Hyperliquid is trading at a staggering 36% premium to its projected $1.75 trillion IPO valuation, strongly signaling a massive first-day pop when the shares officially begin trading.
To help our premium subscribers navigate and profit from this historic event, we have drastically expanded our flagship Chart Book to 31 charts covering 27 companies.
Most importantly, we have cracked open a brand-new, sixth investment category: The Hidden SpaceX Supply Chain.
Because SpaceX rarely discloses its vendor partnerships, these stocks have largely flown under Wall Street’s radar.
If you are waiting for the IPO to buy SpaceX, you are already too late.
The real institutional "playbook" is positioning in the critical component suppliers right now before the retail crowd connects the dots.
(pdf chart book included with 30 charts - link in bio to our latest 10x What Matters report)
The Crypto Alpha Illusion: Why Hedge Funds Missed the Regime Change That Changed Everything
Bitcoin is on track to post its second consecutive flat year, a sequence with almost no precedent in its history.
That alone would be remarkable.
What makes it structurally significant is what it reveals about the market underneath: realized volatility has collapsed from 70% to 40%, funding rates have gone from 19% to 1%, and the retail speculation that powered a decade of outsized returns has quietly retreated.
The implications extend well beyond price.
The strategies that defined crypto hedge fund performance were not products of skill.
They were products of a market regime that no longer exists.
Most crypto hedge funds had a negative 2025.
The ones that didn't were trading a fundamentally different playbook.
Understanding what changed, why it changed, and what the new playbook looks like is what separates capital positioned for this market from capital still positioned for the last one.
If your crypto allocation is still built around volatility, momentum, or funding rate carry, you are positioned for a market that no longer exists. Today's report explains what replaced it. Link in the comments.
Bitcoin is on track to post its second consecutive flat year, a sequence with almost no precedent in its history.
That alone would be remarkable.
What makes it structurally significant is what it reveals about the market underneath: realized volatility has collapsed from 70% to 40%, funding rates have gone from 19% to 1%, and the retail speculation that powered a decade of outsized returns has quietly retreated.
The implications extend well beyond price.
The strategies that defined crypto hedge fund performance were not products of skill.
They were products of a market regime that no longer exists.
Most crypto hedge funds had a negative 2025.
The ones that didn't were trading a fundamentally different playbook.
Understanding what changed, why it changed, and what the new playbook looks like is what separates capital positioned for this market from capital still positioned for the last one.
If your crypto allocation is still built around volatility, momentum, or funding rate carry, you are positioned for a market that no longer exists. Today's report explains what replaced it. Link in the comments.
SpaceX price discovery occurs on different markets and with an IPO price expectation of $1.75 trillion, those buying the SpaceX perps on Hyperliquid are paying 36% above that value, effectively implying that
a) the IPO share price of $147 might be raised during the book building period and / or
b) that the stock will climb more than 36% on day one.
While this can certainly occur, risk/reward is not great in buying at a 36% premium out of the gate.
There are several other space related companies that we have identified and written extensively in our 10x What Matter cross asset publication.
Some of those space shares are up +300% during the last year with the latest quarterly earnings indicating which of those companies have strong tailwind.
The space story is certainly not over and the SpaceX listing will establish a new ecosystem for stock investors.
It is important to understand that the voyage to Mars and colonizing a new planet are just narratives to get investors excited, the bull market story is a lot closer to home, while still in space, as we have explained in our reports.
See our report: "Bitcoin, SpaceX, Palantir: The Infrastructure War That Will Decide Your Future" for details and investment opportunities (link in bio).
a) the IPO share price of $147 might be raised during the book building period and / or
b) that the stock will climb more than 36% on day one.
While this can certainly occur, risk/reward is not great in buying at a 36% premium out of the gate.
There are several other space related companies that we have identified and written extensively in our 10x What Matter cross asset publication.
Some of those space shares are up +300% during the last year with the latest quarterly earnings indicating which of those companies have strong tailwind.
The space story is certainly not over and the SpaceX listing will establish a new ecosystem for stock investors.
It is important to understand that the voyage to Mars and colonizing a new planet are just narratives to get investors excited, the bull market story is a lot closer to home, while still in space, as we have explained in our reports.
See our report: "Bitcoin, SpaceX, Palantir: The Infrastructure War That Will Decide Your Future" for details and investment opportunities (link in bio).
Most people think SpaceX is about Mars. It isn't.
Most people think Bitcoin and SpaceX have nothing to do with each other. They do.
And most people have never connected Palantir to either. They should.
Here is the thesis in three sentences:
Palantir is building the infrastructure that makes states more powerful.
SpaceX is building the infrastructure that makes states less powerful. Bitcoin is the financial layer that makes the second stack irreversible.
The SpaceX IPO prices June 11 at $1.75 trillion, the same market cap as Bitcoin. That convergence is not accidental. It is the most important infrastructure trade of the next decade, and it is being completely ignored by mainstream finance.
In our 10x What Matters publications we cover:
→ Why SpaceX is the missing physical layer of the Bitcoin thesis
→ Why orbital compute makes every earthbound data center obsolete
→ Why Palantir and SpaceX represent two irreconcilable visions of the future
→ How our 5 pure-play space stocks have returned 351% in the past year
→ What the June 12 listing means for positioning right now
The infrastructure war is already underway. The question is not which side wins.
The question is which side you own (link in bio).
Most people think Bitcoin and SpaceX have nothing to do with each other. They do.
And most people have never connected Palantir to either. They should.
Here is the thesis in three sentences:
Palantir is building the infrastructure that makes states more powerful.
SpaceX is building the infrastructure that makes states less powerful. Bitcoin is the financial layer that makes the second stack irreversible.
The SpaceX IPO prices June 11 at $1.75 trillion, the same market cap as Bitcoin. That convergence is not accidental. It is the most important infrastructure trade of the next decade, and it is being completely ignored by mainstream finance.
In our 10x What Matters publications we cover:
→ Why SpaceX is the missing physical layer of the Bitcoin thesis
→ Why orbital compute makes every earthbound data center obsolete
→ Why Palantir and SpaceX represent two irreconcilable visions of the future
→ How our 5 pure-play space stocks have returned 351% in the past year
→ What the June 12 listing means for positioning right now
The infrastructure war is already underway. The question is not which side wins.
The question is which side you own (link in bio).
This week's 10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff is out, and the macro picture has shifted materially.
The two bullish catalysts we flagged, Warsh Fed confirmation and CLARITY Act progress, were squarely overshadowed by hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data in the US and Japan. The market has rotated its focus back to inflation risk, and crypto is repricing accordingly.
What the data shows this week:
Bitcoin ETF outflows hit the 7th percentile, $1B+ sold since the May 13 CPI release
Sentiment collapsed from 87% to 45% on our Fear & Greed Index in a single week
Stablecoin inflows at the 8th percentile, fresh capital has stopped entering the market
30-year Treasury at 5.12%, with the 2-year implying nearly two additional rate hikes
Ethereum triggered a bearish signal in our quant model and remains the higher-conviction short
Bitcoin is testing its 30-day moving average. A confirmed break below signals deteriorating momentum. Key levels to watch: $79,125 (short-term bull/bear) and $76,922 (major support).
The longer-term cycle bottom appears intact. We continue to view this as a correction within an emerging bull market, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable until ETF flows stabilize and Bitcoin reclaims key support.
Full report for subscribers
The two bullish catalysts we flagged, Warsh Fed confirmation and CLARITY Act progress, were squarely overshadowed by hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI data in the US and Japan. The market has rotated its focus back to inflation risk, and crypto is repricing accordingly.
What the data shows this week:
Bitcoin ETF outflows hit the 7th percentile, $1B+ sold since the May 13 CPI release
Sentiment collapsed from 87% to 45% on our Fear & Greed Index in a single week
Stablecoin inflows at the 8th percentile, fresh capital has stopped entering the market
30-year Treasury at 5.12%, with the 2-year implying nearly two additional rate hikes
Ethereum triggered a bearish signal in our quant model and remains the higher-conviction short
Bitcoin is testing its 30-day moving average. A confirmed break below signals deteriorating momentum. Key levels to watch: $79,125 (short-term bull/bear) and $76,922 (major support).
The longer-term cycle bottom appears intact. We continue to view this as a correction within an emerging bull market, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable until ETF flows stabilize and Bitcoin reclaims key support.
Full report for subscribers
Most Bitcoin options traders lose money. Not because the instrument is too complex, but because they trade it without a framework.
Since the ETF approvals, Bitcoin options volumes have outpaced spot trading growth. A new wave of traders is entering the market underprepared for what they’re trading.
We just published a 23-rule Bitcoin options playbook, a framework I was first taught as an index options trader at Morgan Stanley and have since adapted for Bitcoin’s unique dynamics.
The 23 rules are structured in three layers:
🔹 Rules 1–10 — The Foundation
Implied volatility, term structure, skew, theta, delta, spreads, liquidity, IV crush, position sizing, and rolling. The concepts every options trader needs before placing a single trade.
🔹 Rules 11–16 — Market Mechanics
Gamma, quarterly expiries, and how dealer delta hedging creates mechanical, non-discretionary price pressure in spot. Miss this layer and the market will move against you in ways that feel random but aren’t.
🔹 Rules 17–23 — The Edge Layer
How to read the full volatility surface, the realized vs. implied vol spread (the most repeatable edge in options), and why averaging down on a losing option is nothing like averaging down on spot.
One widely-cited statistic worth clarifying: studies show 75–80% of options held to expiration expire worthless. That does not mean options traders lose money most of the time. It means undisciplined traders do. The traders on the right side of that statistic are not smarter or luckier — they follow the rules.
The full report is available to all 10x Research subscribers, downloadable and printable. If you want the 1-10 point 'Foundation' overview, comment "Options" and we will send it to you, part 1 of this report.
Since the ETF approvals, Bitcoin options volumes have outpaced spot trading growth. A new wave of traders is entering the market underprepared for what they’re trading.
We just published a 23-rule Bitcoin options playbook, a framework I was first taught as an index options trader at Morgan Stanley and have since adapted for Bitcoin’s unique dynamics.
The 23 rules are structured in three layers:
🔹 Rules 1–10 — The Foundation
Implied volatility, term structure, skew, theta, delta, spreads, liquidity, IV crush, position sizing, and rolling. The concepts every options trader needs before placing a single trade.
🔹 Rules 11–16 — Market Mechanics
Gamma, quarterly expiries, and how dealer delta hedging creates mechanical, non-discretionary price pressure in spot. Miss this layer and the market will move against you in ways that feel random but aren’t.
🔹 Rules 17–23 — The Edge Layer
How to read the full volatility surface, the realized vs. implied vol spread (the most repeatable edge in options), and why averaging down on a losing option is nothing like averaging down on spot.
One widely-cited statistic worth clarifying: studies show 75–80% of options held to expiration expire worthless. That does not mean options traders lose money most of the time. It means undisciplined traders do. The traders on the right side of that statistic are not smarter or luckier — they follow the rules.
The full report is available to all 10x Research subscribers, downloadable and printable. If you want the 1-10 point 'Foundation' overview, comment "Options" and we will send it to you, part 1 of this report.
10x Volatility Edge: Bitcoin, the Four-Month Overhang Is Lifting
Bitcoin traders appear too complacent. Their put options are underperforming, leaving them stuck waiting for expiry before they can book losses, but once those positions roll off (May 29 and June 26), the negative gamma overhang clears with them, and so does Bitcoin's downside bias.
Two catalysts stand out this week, but the more significant shift comes at the end-of-May and end-of-June expiries, where we expect sentiment to rotate from bearish to bullish.
The market is slowly shifting with a lot more demand for upside calls than downside puts. Below, we present four potential option trades.
Since mid-January, Bitcoin's aggregate gamma exposure has been deeply negative, reaching -$3.2 billion at the current $82,000 strike.
In a negative gamma regime, dealers must trade with price to maintain their hedges.
Rallies trigger dealer buying, which accelerates the move. Selloffs trigger dealer selling, which deepens the drop. In theory, this should produce clean trending behavior + our four favorite Bitcoin/Ethereum option trades.
Full report, link in bio.
Bitcoin traders appear too complacent. Their put options are underperforming, leaving them stuck waiting for expiry before they can book losses, but once those positions roll off (May 29 and June 26), the negative gamma overhang clears with them, and so does Bitcoin's downside bias.
Two catalysts stand out this week, but the more significant shift comes at the end-of-May and end-of-June expiries, where we expect sentiment to rotate from bearish to bullish.
The market is slowly shifting with a lot more demand for upside calls than downside puts. Below, we present four potential option trades.
Since mid-January, Bitcoin's aggregate gamma exposure has been deeply negative, reaching -$3.2 billion at the current $82,000 strike.
In a negative gamma regime, dealers must trade with price to maintain their hedges.
Rallies trigger dealer buying, which accelerates the move. Selloffs trigger dealer selling, which deepens the drop. In theory, this should produce clean trending behavior + our four favorite Bitcoin/Ethereum option trades.
Full report, link in bio.
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Two BIG Bitcoin catalysts this week.
Bitcoin is rallying on spot demand, not leverage, a structurally healthier setup than the crowded long positioning seen earlier in the cycle. ETF inflows are steady, miner equities are surging, and options markets are pricing in a more constructive outlook.
Importantly, two major catalysts are supporting Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market this week (see link in bio for the full report).
With improving volumes and moderate inflows, our $88,000 Bitcoin target appears achievable.
The Crypto market cap stands at $2.69 trillion, 2.7% larger than the week before, with an average weekly volume of $123 billion, 2% higher than average. Weekly Bitcoin volume was $35.3 billion, 14% higher than average, while Ethereum volume was $18.9 billion, 40% higher than average.
Tether USDT market cap is $189.6 billion, 0.05% higher than a week ago, while volume was $127.1 billion, 16% higher than average.
The full breakdown, including our preferred options trade, altcoin positioning signals, and key levels to watch, is below the paywall."
Every Monday, we publish our Weekly Crypto Kickoff, a structured, data-driven briefing covering Bitcoin and Ethereum positioning, flow, liquidity, macro dynamics, options market signals, and overall crypto market structure. It is designed to give you everything that matters for the week ahead in a focused 12–15-minute read.
Link in the bio.
Bitcoin is rallying on spot demand, not leverage, a structurally healthier setup than the crowded long positioning seen earlier in the cycle. ETF inflows are steady, miner equities are surging, and options markets are pricing in a more constructive outlook.
Importantly, two major catalysts are supporting Bitcoin and the broader altcoin market this week (see link in bio for the full report).
With improving volumes and moderate inflows, our $88,000 Bitcoin target appears achievable.
The Crypto market cap stands at $2.69 trillion, 2.7% larger than the week before, with an average weekly volume of $123 billion, 2% higher than average. Weekly Bitcoin volume was $35.3 billion, 14% higher than average, while Ethereum volume was $18.9 billion, 40% higher than average.
Tether USDT market cap is $189.6 billion, 0.05% higher than a week ago, while volume was $127.1 billion, 16% higher than average.
The full breakdown, including our preferred options trade, altcoin positioning signals, and key levels to watch, is below the paywall."
Every Monday, we publish our Weekly Crypto Kickoff, a structured, data-driven briefing covering Bitcoin and Ethereum positioning, flow, liquidity, macro dynamics, options market signals, and overall crypto market structure. It is designed to give you everything that matters for the week ahead in a focused 12–15-minute read.
Link in the bio.
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