Boy Lost In Thoughts

Precious metals skyrocketed after the Department of Justice launched an investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, marking a severe escalation in political pressure on the central bank's independence. While gold hit new records and silver led the charge with massive gains, the author warns that the market may have already absorbed the shock. He speculates that with political tensions potentially at their peak, a de-escalation could be next, which might cause the rally in metals and miners to stall and reverse. The key signal to watch will be silver's relative strength during any future downturn.
Major Points:
A Sharp Rise in Precious Metals: Following a DOJ subpoena to the Federal Reserve regarding Chair Jerome Powell's testimony, gold surged 3% to a record high above $4,600, silver jumped over 8%, and mining stocks rose over 4%.Trigger: A Political Attack on the Fed: The move is tied to escalating pressure from the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve’s independence, including public insults, a draft firing letter, the dismissal of a Fed governor, and now a Department of Justice criminal investigation.Silver is the Outperformer: Silver’s significant surge suggests it is currently outperforming other precious metals. The author argues that its true breakout potential will be confirmed if it holds up better than gold and miners during the next meaningful market decline.Miners Approach a Critical Test: The GDXJ (junior mining ETF) is nearing its all-time high. However, the author notes that buyers from the 2011 peak are only just breaking even in nominal terms, implying they remain at a loss when adjusted for inflation.Warning of a Potential Top: The author questions whether this rally is sustainable, suggesting the market may have already priced in the "worst-case scenario." He predicts the extreme political pressure could stabilize or de-escalate, potentially causing precious metals and miners to form a price top imminently.A Staggering "What If" for Silver: If the rally does not reverse soon, the analysis suggests silver could theoretically skyrocket to around $120 before forming a medium-term top.

$XAG
$XAU
$PAXG

The U.S. dollar is pulling back sharply after a failed breakout, precisely as technical analysis anticipated. Meanwhile, gold and silver are powering ahead into new high ground. This isn't market chaos—it's a disciplined, momentum-driven rotation. Gold's breakout has been confirmed, leaving bulls firmly in control with a clear path toward higher targets. Silver is also accelerating upward. The overarching theme is one of continuation: the downtrend in the dollar and the robust uptrend in precious metals both remain firmly intact.
Major Points:
Market Rotation, Not Breakdown: The current move represents a classic rotation within a strong trend, not a chaotic reversal.Dollar Index Weakens: The USD failed to hold a breakout, rolled over into expected support, and maintains a bearish momentum outlook—further downside is likely.Gold Confirms Bullish Breakout: Bulls successfully pushed price above key resistance, printing new highs with no current sell signals. The structure remains intact with higher targets in view.Silver Joins the Rally: Silver is showing momentum expansion after a consolidation phase, aligning with gold's bullish trajectory.The Big Picture: This is a clear trend-continuation environment. Metals are bullish across all timeframes, while the dollar remains under corrective pressure unless it can reclaim its broken channel.

$SUI
$BTC

Natural gas remains under strong bearish control after decisively breaking below critical support levels. With price now trading beneath the 200-day moving average and a key rising channel, the path of least resistance points toward lower targets near $3.03, and potentially down to the $2.95–$2.89 range. That lower zone aligns with long-term Fibonacci retracements, a measured ABCD pattern, and historical monthly lows—creating a clustered support area that could attract buyers if tested. Until price reclaims $3.63, however, any short-term bounce is viewed as a pause within a larger downtrend.
Major Points Highlighted:
Breakdown Confirmed: Natural gas has broken below key support at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level ($3.24) and closed below its rising channel trendline.Bearish Momentum Intact: Price remains under the 200-day moving average ($3.55) with no recovery signal until $3.63 is reclaimed.Next Downside Targets: Key support zones lie near $3.03 (long-term uptrend line), then $2.95–$2.89 (Fibonacci & ABCD pattern targets).Historical Support Alignment: Monthly chart shows prior major lows near $2.89–$2.77, reinforcing the significance of the $2.95–$2.89 zone.Multiple Indicators Converge: At least five technical signals suggest potential stabilization around $2.95–$2.89 if declines continue.

$DOLO

The case for gold reaching $5,000 and silver hitting $100 has strengthened dramatically in early 2026, driven by President Trump’s aggressive economic agenda. Policies aimed at capping interest rates, subsidizing households, suppressing borrowing costs, and weakening the dollar have sent precious metals soaring to record highs. According to The Gold & Silver Club, these moves mark a structural shift toward hard assets—making their earlier price targets seem conservative. With the administration reshaping monetary and fiscal policy, analysts urge investors not to underestimate the rally, warning that waiting too long could mean missing one of the decade’s most significant wealth opportunities.
Major Points Highlighted:
Aggressive Policy Shift: President Trump has launched an unprecedented economic policy blitz in early 2026, including:A nationwide 10% cap on credit-card interest rates$2,000 tariff-funded rebate checks for householdsTreasury purchases of $200 billion in mortgage bondsPublic pressure on the Fed to lower rates toward 1%Pledges for $2-per-gallon gasoline and restrictions on institutional landlordsMarket Reaction: Gold and silver have already surged to new all-time highs, with gold hitting $4,625/oz and silver reaching $85.73/oz in single-session jumps.Monetary Transformation: These policies are intentionally weakening the U.S. dollar, redirecting capital away from paper assets, and fueling inflation—creating a perfect environment for tangible assets.Price Targets Reaffirmed: The Gold & Silver Club forecasts $5,000 gold and $100 silver as achievable levels, arguing these are now minimum targets given the structural policy shifts.Call to Action: Analysts warn that hesitation could be costly, emphasizing that 2026 is the "Year of Hard Assets," and those slow to position in precious metals may miss a historic wealth-creation phase.
$XAU
$XAG
$PAXG

The Federal Reserve’s era of independent, data-driven monetary policy is over. Driven by unsustainable public debt and political necessity, the Fed is now being steered explicitly by fiscal demands — cutting interest rates, accepting higher inflation, and using its balance sheet to support government financing. What looks like a political attack on the Fed is really the culmination of months of quiet institutional surrender to the mathematics of debt and the timeline of elections. The new regime is one of guided monetary policy, where inflation becomes a deliberate tool of fiscal stabilization, not an accident or a failure.
Major Points :
The Fed is no longer independent — It has been systematically overpowered by fiscal and political constraints, moving from inflation-targeting to debt sustainability as its primary goal.Debt is now the binding constraint — With debt at extreme levels, the Fed is mathematically compelled to cut rates and tolerate inflation as a tool to manage public debt, not as a policy failure.A clear, documented sequence led here — The author traces the shift step-by-step: from Powell’s delayed rate cuts in mid-2025, through internal Fed fractures, to overt fiscal dominance and political pressure ahead of the 2026 elections.Policy is now “guided” — not by data, but by politics — Monetary decisions are driven by electoral timelines, deficit financing needs, and institutional maneuvering rather than traditional economic indicators.Financial repression is the new regime — Low rates, yield curve control, and balance sheet expansion are becoming permanent tools to keep government borrowing costs down, even at the expense of higher inflation.Legal and procedural moves are just formalities — Recent subpoenas and political pressures are acknowledgments that Fed independence had already been eroded behind the scenes by Treasury actions, Board politics, and fiscal arithmetic.
$WAL

Crude oil futures retreated slightly on Monday, failing to capitalize on a recent technical breakout above a key 50-day moving average. The market is caught between geopolitical speculation and a fundamental oversupply reality. While fears of potential U.S. military action in Iran briefly fueled prices, the absence of actual supply disruptions has left bulls disappointed. Analysts note that without a tangible impact on physical supply, the prevailing market surplus will continue to suppress significant price rallies.
Major Points Highlighted:
Technical Standoff: Prices broke above the critical 50-day moving average at $58.57 but immediately showed weak follow-through, indicating a lack of bullish conviction. The market is now testing this level as major support.Key Price Targets: If support holds, next major upside targets are $59.80, followed by $60.70 and $62.05.Key Risk: If the 50-day MA support fails, a pullback toward $57.78 and $57.39 is likely.Primary Cap on Gains: Market Oversupply. The dominant narrative of a well-supplied market is attracting sellers at higher prices, capping all rallies.Geopolitical Spark Fading: Last week's breakout was driven by speculation that U.S. action in Iran could disrupt supply. With Iran asserting control and no immediate U.S. follow-through, this "risk premium" is evaporating.Market Sentiment: Traders are adopting a "show me" attitude, demanding visible supply outages before believing in sustained higher prices.Other Supply Factor: Potential resumption of oil exports from Venezuela adds to the global supply outlook, further weighing on prices.Outlook: Prices are likely to remain choppy and range-bound, supported only by active Iran fears but firmly capped by the reality of oversupply.
$WAL

The upcoming week is a critical inflection point for financial markets, dominated by two major events: the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data and the start of Q4 earnings season led by the nation's largest banks. These releases will test the current market optimism, which has propelled major indices to near-record highs on hopes of falling inflation and impending Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Major Points Highlighted:
Pivotal Week for Fed Policy: The Tuesday CPI report is the first complete inflation reading since government operations resumed. Consensus forecasts expect a 2.7% year-over-year rate. This data is crucial for confirming whether disinflation is sticking, which would validate market expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026.Bank Earnings Kick Off Corporate Season: Major banks (JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo) report Q4 results starting Tuesday. Their commentary will provide the first real-time look into 2026's credit health, loan demand, and consumer resilience, setting the tone for the entire earnings season.Markets Riding a Wave of Optimism: U.S. equities started 2026 strongly, with the S&P 500 (+1.57%), Nasdaq (+1.88%), and Dow (+2.32%) all posting significant gains last week. This rally is fueled by beliefs in a "controlled economic slowdown" and a dovish Fed pivot.Supportive Backdrop Despite Risks: While geopolitical events (Venezuela, Supreme Court tariff decision) and mixed data (slowing job growth) exist, the macro view remains positive. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model still shows robust Q4 growth near 5.1%, supporting a "soft landing" narrative.All Eyes on Technical Support: All three major indices trade firmly above their key 52-week moving averages, confirming the broader uptrend remains technically intact. Key resistance levels loom just above current prices.The Bottom Line: The CPI data will set the immediate tone for interest rate expectations, while bank earnings will define the fundamental corporate health outlook. Alignment of both with optimistic forecasts could fuel the next leg of the market rally.
$DOLO

The cryptocurrency market is under renewed selling pressure despite a brief surge. Bitcoin touched $92,500 before retreating to $90,300 as sellers emerged. Both Bitcoin and XRP are testing key support levels, with risks of further declines if critical thresholds break.

Major Points Highlighted:
Bitcoin’s Sharp ReversalBriefly hit $92,500, then fell to $90,300 due to heavy selling.Testing the 50-day moving average; a break below $90,000 could trigger a drop toward $80,000.Market Sentiment Shifting“Sell-the-rise” mentality is growing across cryptocurrencies.Positive catalyst from reports of a Fed investigation failed to sustain momentum.XRP’s Prolonged DeclineDown for 7 consecutive days, nearing $2.00 and its 50-day MA.Still up 10% YTD but losing upward momentum.Derivatives Data Hint at Potential TurnBitcoin open interest at lowest since late 2022 — historically a precursor to consolidation or bullish reversals.Long-Term Bullish ForecastVanEck predicts Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050 if it becomes widely used for international settlements and central bank reserves.Altcoin DevelopmentsMonero (XMR) gaining as top privacy coin after Zcash’s decline.JPMorgan notes signs of sell-off ending: ETF outflows stabilizing, futures positioning improving.MSCI decision not to exclude crypto-holding companies from indices is a positive signal.Scalability Remains a ChallengeVanEck stresses that scaling solutions (Layer 2) are essential for mass adoption.
Bottom Line:
The market is at a tension point — heavy selling threatens deeper short-term declines, but multiple signals (low open interest, institutional forecasts, and regulatory clarity) suggest a potential inflection point ahead. Watch the $90,000 Bitcoin level closely.
$BTC
$XRP
$RSR

Binance has announced it will list Fogo (FOGO), a new Solana-based Layer 1 token. Trading begins January 15, 2026, at 14:00 UTC.
MAJOR POINTS HIGHLIGHTED:
✅ LISTING DETAILS:
Trading Pairs: FOGO/USDT, FOGO/USDC, FOGO/TRYDeposits Open: January 15, 14:00 UTCTrading Starts: Same day, January 15, 14:00 UTCWithdrawals Open: January 16, 14:00 UTCListing Fee: 0 BNB
⚠️ RISK & TAGGING:
FOGO carries a Seed Tag — meaning it’s considered high-risk, high-volatility, and newer.Users must pass quizzes every 90 days to trade Seed Tag tokens.Strong emphasis on DYOR (Do Your Own Research) and risk management.
🌐 BINANCE ALPHA TRANSITION:
FOGO is currently on Binance Alpha.When spot trading opens, it will be delisted from Alpha, but users can transfer holdings to Spot Accounts.Volume will no longer count toward Alpha Points.
🎯 MARKETING BOOST:
An extra 50,000,000 FOGO will be allocated for future marketing campaigns.
🚫 RESTRICTED COUNTRIES:
Includes USA, Canada, Netherlands, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Cuba, Crimea, and certain other regions.
List may change based on regulations.
🔧 TRADING FEATURES ENABLED:
Spot Algo Orders available at launch.Trading Bots & Spot Copy Trading enabled within 24 hours after listing.
FINAL REMINDER:
FOGO is a high-risk, newer cryptocurrency. Price volatility is expected to be significant. Always research thoroughly, understand the project, and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
QUICK SUMMARY FOR TRADERS:
What: FOGO listing on BinanceWhen: January 15, 2026, 14:00 UTCPairs: USDT, USDC, TRYTag: Seed Tag (high risk)Note: Not available in the US and other restricted regions.

$FOGO
$DUSK

Binance Wallet is thrilled to announce the BNB Smart Chain Trading Competition, hosted on Binance Alpha. From January 12–26, 2026 (UTC), trade Infrared (IR), Power Protocol (POWER), and Stable (STABLE) using Binance Wallet (Keyless) or Binance Alpha for a chance to earn a share of $600,000 in token rewards.
MAJOR POINTS HIGHLIGHTED:
🏆 Massive Prize Pool – $600,000 worth of IR, POWER & STABLE tokens up for grabs
📈 Three Separate Competitions – Compete in IR, POWER, and STABLE trading volume pools
👥 Thousands of Winners – Over 14,760 total winners across all pools
⚡ Limit Order Bonus – Limit orders get 4x weight in volume calculations
🌍 Global Access – Open to all eligible Binance Alpha traders (restrictions may apply per region)
🔒 Keyless Wallet Option – Use Binance Wallet (Keyless) or Binance Alpha to qualify
🔄 Buy & Sell Both Count – All qualified trading volume contributes to rankings
⏳ Competition Dates – January 12, 2026 (14:00 UTC) to January 26, 2026 (14:00 UTC)
🏆 Multiple Wins Possible – You can win across all three token pools if ranked high enough
REWARD BREAKDOWN:
Token PoolWinnersTotal Prize PoolReward Per WinnerIR4,0002,600,000 IR650 IRPOWER6,6601,438,560 POWER216 POWERSTABLE4,10014,391,000 STABLE3,510 STABLE
KEY REQUIREMENTS & NOTES:
✅ Only trades via Binance Wallet (Keyless) or Binance Alpha count
✅ Limit order volume is multiplied 4x for ranking
✅ No volume caps – trade as much as you want
✅ Both purchases and sales contribute to your volume
✅ Must have a verified Binance account and active Binance Wallet
❌ Bridging transactions and Alpha-to-Alpha trades do not count
❌ Binance reserves the right to disqualify suspicious trading activity
HOW TO ENTER:
Update your Binance App and set up your Binance Wallet (Keyless).During the promotion period, trade IR, POWER, and STABLE on Binance Alpha or via your Binance Wallet.Winners will be ranked automatically and can claim rewards on the event page after the competition ends.
DISCLAIMERS:
Rewards will be distributed by February 9, 2026.Digital asset prices are volatile; invest at your own risk.This is not financial advice.Binance may amend terms at its discretion.Alpha assets are higher risk and cannot be withdrawn to external wallets.
Don’t miss your chance to compete and win — start trading now!
$IR
$POWER
$STABLE

Binance Announces New Listings and a Major Fee Promotion
Issued: January 12, 2026
Key Points at a Glance:
New Listing: Binance will list United Stables (U), a next-generation stablecoin.Trading Pairs: Spot trading for U/USDT and U/USDC opens on January 13, 2026, at 08:00 UTC.Major Promotion: For a limited time, enjoy ZERO trading fees on both U/USDT and U/USDC spot and margin pairs.Timeline:Deposits: Open now.Trading & Zero-Fee Promotion: Starts January 13, 2026, 08:00 UTC.Withdrawals: Open from January 14, 2026, 08:00 UTC.About the Asset: U is described as a "fluid asset"-backed stablecoin aiming to unify liquidity across trading, DeFi, and institutional systems. It is the first BNB Chain stablecoin to support EIP-3009 for gasless transfers.Important Exclusions: Trading volume from these pairs during the promo will NOT count toward VIP tier upgrades or Liquidity Provider programs.Regional Restrictions: Users from several countries, including the USA, Canada, Japan, and the Netherlands, among others, will not be able to trade these pairs.
Highlights & Critical Details:
Zero Fee Offer: This is a standout opportunity to trade the new U stablecoin pairs without incurring standard maker/taker fees. The promotion starts with trading and continues "until further notice."Next-Gen Stablecoin Claims: U is not just another stablecoin; it's marketed as a "fluid" asset for a future integrating AI and seamless cross-ecosystem value transfer.Activation Timeline: Note the 24-hour gap between the start of trading (Jan 13) and when withdrawals open (Jan 14).Key Fine Print:No VIP Benefits: The zero-fee trades won't help you advance your VIP level.Country Exclusions: Always check the current list of restricted countries in the announcement before attempting to trade.Promotion Terms: Binance reserves the right to disqualify manipulative trades and change the rules at its discretion.Standard Warnings Apply: The announcement includes strong reminders about market risk, volatility, regulatory restrictions (like MiCA for EEA users), and the necessity to do your own research (DYOR) to avoid scams.
Disclaimer: This summary is for informational purposes only. Always refer to the original Binance announcement for the complete, authoritative terms and conditions before taking any action. Cryptocurrency trading involves significant risk.
$U
$DUSK

Binance is adding three new Spot trading pairs—LINK/USDT, PEPE/USDT, and USDC/MXN—along with Trading Bots support for them, starting January 13, 2026, at 08:00 UTC.

USDC spot and margin traders get discounted taker fees.

Trading is restricted in several countries, including the U.S., Canada, and Iran, and requires account verification.
As always, trading carries high risk—invest wisely.
Key Points Highlighted:
New Spot Trading Pairs Launching – Starting 2026-01-13 08:00 UTC, trade:LINK/USDTPEPE/USDTUSDC/MXNTrading Bots Enabled – Spot algo orders will be available for all three new pairs from the same time.Fee Discount – Enjoy reduced taker fees on all USDC spot and margin pairs until further notice.Key Restrictions – Trading not available for users in:USA & its territories, Canada, Cuba, Crimea, Iran, Netherlands, North Korea, Syria, and non-government controlled areas of Ukraine.Subject to change based on regulations.Account Verification Required – Users must complete verification to access new pairs.USDC is E-Money – Issued by Circle; holders have a legal claim for redemption at par value.Risk Reminder – High market volatility; trading bots execute automatically even during rapid price swings. Invest responsibly.
Rephrased Announcement:
Binance Expands Spot Trading with New Pairs and Bots
Binance is enhancing your trading options by introducing three new Spot trading pairs: LINK/USDT, PEPE/USDT, and USDC/MXN, available from January 13, 2026, at 08:00 UTC.
Simultaneously, Trading Bots services will go live for these pairs, enabling automated Spot algo orders from day one.
Important Details:
Users benefit from discounted taker fees on all USDC spot and margin trading pairs.Availability depends on your country of residence—restricted regions include the U.S., Canada, and several others.Full account verification is required to participate.USDC is a regulated e-money token redeemable at par through its issuer, Circle.
Always trade cautiously: digital assets are volatile, and automated bots may execute orders during extreme market movements.
Start trading on Binance Spot now and explore the new opportunities
$LINK
$PEPE
$USDC

The escalating conflict between former President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has found a new flashpoint: massive cost overruns in the renovation of the Fed’s Washington headquarters. The Trump administration is threatening criminal charges against Powell, alleging gross mismanagement of the project. Here are the key takeaways from the controversy.
Major Points Highlighted:
The Core Conflict: The Trump administration is threatening criminal charges against Fed Chair Jerome Powell over budget overruns, using the issue to pressure the independent central bank.Staggering Cost Overtuns: The renovation is over budget by approximately $700 million. The estimated cost has ballooned to $2.46 billion, up from $1.88 billion in 2024.The Buildings in Question: The project involves two historic buildings:The Marriner S. Eccles Building (Fed headquarters, built 1935-37).The 1951 Constitution Avenue Building (historic, transferred to the Fed in 2018).Reasons for Budget Blowout: Key factors include soaring labor/material costs, expensive historic preservation requirements, and unforeseen problems like lead and asbestos contamination.Lavishness Defended: The Fed denies extravagance, stating the century-old buildings needed essential infrastructure upgrades. Plans for a water feature were cut, and there is no governors-only elevator or VIP dining room. A "garden terrace" is actually a lawn atop a parking garage for stormwater management.Oversight & Authority: The Fed has legal autonomy over its capital spending. It undergoes regular reviews by its Inspector General and consulted planning commissions, but maintains control over the project's budget and scope.
$WAL

Major U.S. Data Reaction (December):
Jobs Miss, But Quality Wins: Nonfarm payrolls rose 50K (below 60K expected), yet the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% (better than 4.5% forecast), signaling a still-resilient labor market.Market Interpretation: Traders see this as a "Goldilocks" scenario—cool enough to ease inflation fears, but strong enough to avoid recession panic. This led markets to delay expectations for Fed rate cuts in the immediate term.Risk Assets Rally: Equities surged with the Dow hitting a record high, while the Nasdaq (+0.81%) and S&P 500 (+0.65%) also gained.Commodities Spike: Gold jumped 0.76% (over 4% weekly gain) on soft data and geopolitical tensions. Oil surged 2% on supply fears from Iran protests and Ukraine escalation.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS & OUTLOOK:
Fed Policy in Focus: The jobs report did not change the broader expectation for rate cuts later in 2026, but pushed the timing further out.Critical Week Ahead: All eyes on U.S. CPI, PPI, and retail sales this week—these will be major determinants of the Fed’s rate path.Global Data to Watch: UK/German GDP will drive GBP and EUR moves. OPEC & EIA reports will guide oil prices.Technicals Show Key Levels: Major FX pairs and commodities are testing make-or-break support/resistance zones—breakouts could define the next big trend.
TODAY’S ACTION PLAN:
Focus: EU Sentix Investor Confidence at 17:30 GMT.Big Ticket Tomorrow: U.S. CPI at 21:30 GMT – the week’s most critical event.Key Levels to Trade: Major instruments are at pivotal technical junctures—watch EURUSD 1.1615, Gold 4510, Oil 59.59, and BTC 89,605 for breakout signals.
BOTTOM LINE:
Markets cheered a "not too hot, not too cold" jobs report, sending stocks to records and boosting safe-havens. Now, everything hinges on this week’s inflation data—a high CPI could shake the rally, while a soft read may fuel the bull run further. Stay alert to technical breaks and keep risk management tight.

$BTC
$XAU
$XAG

The Australian Dollar (AUD) rebounded sharply against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, ending a three-day decline. The move was primarily driven by a sudden weakening of the USD, which stumbled after reports emerged that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is under a criminal investigation. While domestic Australian data was mixed, the dramatic shift in US sentiment and technical buying propelled the AUD/USD pair higher toward a key chart pattern.
📌 Major Points Highlighted:
🚨 Primary Catalyst: USD Plunge on Fed ScandalThe US Dollar weakened significantly after the New York Times reported federal prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The probe concerns the Fed's headquarters renovation and whether Powell misled Congress.🦘 AUD's Technical ReboundThe AUD/USD pair rose, halting a three-day losing streak, trading near 0.6700.Technically, the pair is attempting a rebound toward an ascending channel, with the RSI suggesting bullish momentum. A break higher could target 0.6766 (Oct 2024 high).🇦🇺 Mixed Australian Data & RBA StanceANZ Job Advertisements fell 0.5% in December, indicating some labor market softness.RBA officials signaled rate cuts are unlikely soon, urging focus on the upcoming quarterly CPI report for clearer policy direction.🇺🇸 Underlying US Economic BackdropWeak US jobs data (NFP at 50K vs. 60K expected) reinforced expectations the Fed will hold rates steady later this month.Other data was mixed: Services PMI beat expectations, while JOLTS Job Openings and ADP employment were softer.🌏 External FactorsChina's inflation data showed a modest pick-up (CPI 0.8% YoY), offering limited direct stimulus for the commodity-linked Aussie dollar.Australia's trade surplus narrowed in November as exports declined.
$REZ
$DUSK

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces a federal investigation into whether he misled Congress about renovation expenses at the central bank's Washington headquarters. The inquiry amplifies existing tensions with President Trump, who has publicly pushed for more aggressive rate cuts. With Powell's term ending in May, Trump plans to soon name a successor—likely an advisor aligned with his low-rate agenda—intensifying speculation about the Fed’s future direction.
Major Points:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is under investigation by U.S. prosecutors over possible misleading statements to Congress about renovation costs at the Fed’s headquarters.The probe adds to pressure from the Trump administration, which has criticized Powell’s reluctance to enact deeper interest rate cuts.Trump has already chosen Powell’s successor ahead of his term ending in May, with top contenders expected to favor lower interest rates.

$FXS
$ACH
$BIFI

The Global Economy in 2026: Growth Amidst New Risks
The global economy is projected to continue expanding in 2026, led by the G20 nations which represent ~80% of world GDP. However, growth is expected to moderate slightly, and the landscape is bifurcating with clear winners and looming geopolitical threats.
Key Economic Highlights:
Diverging Global Growth: India is set to be the growth leader at 6.2%, outpacing China (4.4%) and the United States (1.7%). Overall G20 growth is forecast to ease from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026.Inflation Cooling (Mostly): Headline inflation across G20 nations is expected to decline from 3.4% to 2.8%. The notable exception is the US, where inflation is projected to rise to 3.0% due to higher import costs from tariffs.The Fed's Bullish Signal: The US Federal Reserve has been cutting rates, with the policy rate now at its lowest since 2022. This is a classic stimulant for higher asset prices and financial markets by lowering borrowing costs.The Major Risk: Trade Wars: The principal threat to global stability is a further escalation of trade barriers, particularly between the US and China. These tariffs have already raised costs worldwide and are seen as a drag on what could have been stronger global growth.
2026 US Market Forecast:
US indices are entering 2026 with powerful momentum after a stellar 2025.
S&P 500 (SPX): Up ~17% in 2025. 2026 scenarios range from a bullish run above 8,000 to a bearish case below 7,000.NASDAQ 100 (NDX): The top performer, up ~21% in 2025. It aims to smash the 50,000 barrier, with a best-case target of 60,000.Dow Jones (DJI): Up ~14% in 2025. The key watchpoint is whether it can sustainably break the 30,000 level.
Bottom Line: The fundamental support from central bank policy and strong technical trends suggest 2026 could be another bullish year for markets. However, this optimism is tempered by the tangible risks of inflation spikes and geopolitical trade tensions that could derail growth.
$ZKP

January 12, 2026 — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell issued an extraordinary public statement on Sunday evening, revealing that the Department of Justice has threatened him with criminal indictment in connection with his Senate testimony last June, an action he characterized as a politically motivated attack on the central bank’s independence.
Key Highlights from Powell’s Statement
Unprecedented Legal Threat
Powell disclosed that on Friday, the Justice Department served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas targeting testimony he gave before the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025. That testimony partly addressed a multi-year project to renovate historic Fed office buildings.
Powell’s Core Accusation: Interest Rate Independence Under Attack
In his most pointed remarks, Powell stated that the legal threat is not truly about his testimony or the building renovations, which he described as “pretexts.” Instead, he directly linked the Justice Department’s actions to the Fed’s monetary policy decisions.
“The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President,” Powell asserted.
He framed the conflict in stark institutional terms: “This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”
Broader Context of Pressure
Powell placed the Justice Department’s move within what he called “the broader context of the administration’s threats and ongoing pressure,” suggesting a pattern of attempted political influence over the traditionally independent central bank.
Powell’s Defense and Commitment
Emphasizing his nonpartisan record, Powell noted he has served under four administrations—both Republican and Democratic—and has always carried out his duties “without political fear or favor.” He reaffirmed his commitment to the Fed’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.
“Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats,” Powell said, pledging to continue serving with integrity.
Implications and Reactions
The statement marks a dramatic escalation in tensions between the Federal Reserve and the executive branch. Legal experts suggest that prosecuting a Fed chair for congressional testimony related to administrative matters would be unprecedented and could raise significant constitutional questions about the separation of powers and central bank independence.
Market analysts are closely watching the situation, as perceptions of Fed independence are critical to global financial stability and investor confidence. Historically, political interference in monetary policy has been viewed negatively by markets, often leading to increased volatility and risk premiums.
Congressional leaders from both parties are expected to respond in the coming days, with oversight hearings likely. The Senate Banking Committee, before which Powell testified last June, may be called upon to investigate both the substance of Powell’s original testimony and the circumstances surrounding the Justice Department’s subpoenas.
Powell concluded his statement by vowing to “continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do,” setting the stage for a potential constitutional and institutional standoff over one of the foundational principles of modern central banking: operational independence from political direction.
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