>Jensen Huang Starts Nvidia in 1993, but almost goes bankrupt in 1996, laying off 50% of staff and telling his team “we are 30 days from going out of business."
>In 1997, Nvidia wins a contract with Sega, but Jensen admits their chip won’t work. Sega decides to invest $5M into Nvidia, buying them six months of runway, enough time to pivot to a new GPU architecture.
>The pivot works. By 1999, Nvidia goes public and launches the GeForce 256, marketing it as the world’s first "GPU” and they dominate the PC gaming market.
>Jensen notices Ph.D. students are hacking his gaming cards to solve complex math problems. He realizes the GPU is actually a supercomputer disguised as a toy, and starts aggressively investing in this use case.
>Throughout the 2000s, Nvidia pours profits into developing CUDA, a software platform that makes GPUs programmable for AI, scientific computing, and many of the heaviest workloads that CPUs can’t handle.
>Then in 2016, Jensen hand-delivers the world's 1st AI supercomputer (the DGX-1) to Elon Musk for a nonprofit he’s funding called OpenAI, so they can train a "generative model".
>But in 2022, Nvidia’s stock falls 66% as the PC market slows, and Ethereum switches to Proof-of-Stake, instantly killing the multi-billion-dollar GPU mining market, one of Nvidia’s biggest demand drivers. GPU resale prices collapse. Nvidia’s revenue guidance drops.
>While the industry slows down, Jensen aggressively secures TSMC's limited CoWoS packaging capacity (the bottleneck for AI chips) betting the farm that the "AI Moment" is imminent.
>In Nov 2022, OpenAI launched ChatGPT. Every major tech company suddenly needs thousands of Nvidia H100s at $30K each.
>From 2023 - 2025, tech companies commit 100s of billions on AI infrastructure spend. All roads lead to Nvidia, and their software layer CUDA locks developers into their ecosystem.
Today, Nvidia is the most valuable company in the world, valued at $4.3 trillion, and Jensen owns approximately 3.5% worth $150+ billion.
THE NEXT WEEK COULD BE BAD FOR THE CRYPTO MARKET 🚨
This week, Japan 10-year bond yield surpassed the 2008 financial crisis level.
And this happened after BOJ hiked rates to their highest level in almost 30 years.
As we know, when Japan bond yields go high, the crypto market suffers.
But that doesn't happen the same week.
After Jan 2025 rate hike, $BTC dumped 7% next week. After July 2025 rate hike, BTC crashed 20% next week. After March 2025 rate hike, BTC crashed 10% next week.
Looking at this, it makes sense that we could see another dump next week, which will most likely be the local bottom.
But what will happen after this?
Unlike past 3 events, Bitcoin won't hit a new ATH soon.
This is because BTC is still following the 4-year cycle.
We may see a short-term rally, but there will be another downtrend after that.
The crypto market won't bottom until the Fed starts QE like 2020, and here's how it could happen.
As Japanese yields rise, investors sell their assets.
They sell stocks, crypto, and even T-bills.
That selling pressure pushes US yields even higher, which makes US debt unsustainable.
High yields make borrowing hard, and crypto gets hit first.
Now for the important part on what comes next.
Historically, when bond yields rise too far and too fast, central banks step in.
They do not allow bond markets to break.
When this happened before, the response was:
• Policy reversal • Liquidity injections • QE to stabilize markets
That is exactly what we saw in 2020-2021.
Many central banks are already easing.
If Japan’s yields keep rising and drag US yields higher, pressure on the Fed increases.
At that point, QE becomes a necessity, not a choice.
Short term:
• Rising US and Japan yields = pressure on crypto • Volatility stays high
Medium to long term:
• Bond stress forces easing • Liquidity returns • Crypto benefits the most as the money printer goes brrrr.
This is why I'm patiently waiting for a full market reset, as there will be once again a generational opportunity.
The primary difference between positive and negative outcomes is related to misconceptions about the stock/crypto market that can lead people to make poor investment decisions.
With that in mind, I present to you ten truths about the stock/crypto market.
1. The long game is undefeated There’s nothing the stock/crypto market hasn’t overcome.
2. You can get smoked in the short-term Bull markets come with lots of bumps in the road.
3. Don’t ever expect average At some point in your life, you probably heard that the stock market generates about 10% annual returns on average.
4. Stocks offer asymmetric upside A stock can only go down by 100%, but there’s no limit to how many times that value can multiply going up.
5. Earnings drive stock prices Any long term move in a stock can ultimately be explained by the underlying company’s earnings, expectations for earnings, and uncertainty about those expectations for earnings.
6. Valuations won’t tell you much about next year While valuation methods may tell you something about long-term returns, most tell you almost nothing about where prices are headed in the next 12 months.
7. There will always be something to worry about Investing in stocks is risky, which is why the returns are relatively high.
8. The most destabilizing risks are the ones people aren’t talking about It’s the risks no one is talking about or few are concerned about that’ll rock markets when they come to surface.
9. There’s a lot of turnover in the stock market Just as most businesses don’t last forever, most stocks aren’t in the market forever.
10. The stock market is and isn’t the economy While the U.S. stock market’s performance is closely tied to the trajectory of the U.S. economy, they’re not the same thing.
What all of this means We could very well be on the brink of a dreadful, multi-year long bear market. Who knows?
Bitcoin faces 3 headwinds as the cryptocurrency sits 28% below record high
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is struggling to gain momentum as it heads toward its worst month since June 2022.
As prices hover around $91,000 per token, or roughly 28% off their October all-time highs of more than $126,000, the cryptocurrency's problems don't appear to be easing.
And three key challenges for bitcoin have emerged as investors and strategists dig through the rubble of this month's decline.
First: Outflows of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for November have reached $3.5 billion, their largest since February. That indicates that institutional investors have stopped allocating into bitcoin. These ETFs have turned into sellers, and as long as they keep selling, I think the markets will struggle to stay up, or rebound.
Another issue: Stablecoin minting activity, a warning that could suggest less capital is entering the crypto ecosystem. According to data, roughly $800 million flowed out of crypto and back into fiat currencies last week. While not a massive figure, it reinforces the trend that money is not staying within the market.
The third challenge facing bitcoin: Long-term holders had already been selling into the downturn, possibly in anticipation of the token's historical four-year cycle. Bitcoin's past performance from peak to trough has largely followed an every-four-year supply cut known as "the halving." Many investors now deny that the same trajectory will repeat.
Wall Street's credit worries are intensifying after a warning from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon about cockroaches in the US economy. Investors on Thursday punished the stocks of regional banks and an investment bank exposed to the bankruptcy of an auto parts maker.
The regional banks that plummeted Thursday were Phoenix-based Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) and Salt Lake City's Zions Bancorporation (ZION). Zions' stock fell 13% and Western Alliance's stock fell nearly 10%.
Their pullbacks came after Zions on Wednesday said it took a $50 million charge-off — a measure of unpaid debt written off as a loss — for two business loans extended through its California Bank & Trust division.
$PAXG $BTC
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